Hi all,
It’s the final day of York’s Ebor Festival. The Group 3 Sky Bet And Symphony Group Strensall Stakes (1:50) opens a seven race card and it’s another opportunity to see the exciting Real World in action.
Next up is the 3-year-old’s Ebor Handicap with the latest running of the Sky Bet Melrose Handicap (2:25) for which a maximum field of 22 have been declared for the race which has £125,000 in guaranteed prize money.
The Group 2 Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (3:00) is the final Group race of the meeting. Last year’s winner Safe Voyage bids for back-to-back wins in the race but this looks a tougher heat with Space Blues likely to be a warm favourite.
The highlight of the seven-race card and the big betting race of the week is of course the Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (3:35). There’s £500,000 in guaranteed prize money with £300,000 on offer to the winner of this year’s renewal.
ITV are covering all four races. Plus, two from Sandown as part of a six-race programme. I’m concentrating on the handicap races from a betting perspective in today’s preview.
York Ebor Festival – Day 4
It’s going to be a case of weather watch as fair bit of rain is being forecast for York on Saturday. It will be interesting to see how much falls but my weather app is indicating 7mm of the wet stuff.
2:25 – Sky Bet Melrose Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 6f
Trainer’s William Haggas, Hughie Morrison and Andrew Balding have saddled four winners in the race since and they are my way into the race.
William Haggas won this with Hamish (2019) and Guarantee (2012). He runs one of the market leaders in Dhushan. A winner at Haydock and Musselburgh (handicap debut). He couldn’t complete the hat trick at Ascot but was only beaten ½ length into second and wouldn’t have been suited by the steady gallop. He’s up a further 3lb but is one for the shortlist.
Hughie Morrison saddled the winner in 2014 and the third last year. He relies on Surrey Gold who took advantage of a lenient handicap work to win at Newbury (good to soft) in May. Returning from a 57-day break he was even more inconvenienced by the steady pace than Haggas horse in the Ascot race. He was doing his best work at the finish last time and managed to get within 3 lengths of the winner at the line. He’s 3lb better off with Dhushan so there shouldn’t be much between the pair. Although this would be his first start on going quicker than good to soft.
Interestingly runners who finished outside the first four on their last start are 6 winners from 46 runners +41 13 placed since 2009. That’s 50% of the winners from just 25% of the total runners. So, It wouldn’t be put me off a horse if they finished outside the places last time.
Besides Surrey Gold that also brings Hard To Fault into the mix. The Tim Easterby trained runner won a Carlisle maiden two starts back and the Racing Post Topspeed figure was good so the form of that race looks decent. A slow start on his handicap debut at Newcastle compromised his chance last time. Capable of better given a decent pace to chase and the yards runners have been going well here this week.
John & Thady Gosden saddle a couple of live contenders in Marshall Plan, who finished three places in front of Hard To Fault in the Newcastle race and Imperial Sun. Marshall Plan shaped that day like he would be well suited by the step up to 1m 6f. Imperial Sun has progrssed with each start this season and improved for the step up to 1m 4f when winning a Wolverhampton handicap 46-days ago. His half brother Harbour Law won the 2016 St Leger so there’s a good chance that more improvement will be forthcoming for today’s trip.
Moshaawer, trained by Roger Varian, won his first two starts this season at Kempton and on quick turf at Doncaster. Possibly wasn’t suited by a tactical race on his Newcastle handicap debut when only 3rd of 6 last time. Capable of better in a stronger run race.
Andrew Balding saddled last year’s winner Coltrane. He saddles recent Ffos Las maiden winner and handicap debutant Valley Forge. Not a certain stayer on pedigree but his Ffos Las win over 1m 4f suggested he should be fine with it.
Summer Knight and Ravenscraig Castle both come into the race seeking the hat trick. The former’s two wins have come over the distance so no stamina concerns for him indeed he should stay further. Now 8lb higher in a deeper race but the son of Camelot might not have reached his class ceiling yet. Ravenscraig Castle, trained by Ian Jardine, is 2-2 in 2021 and showed he was well suited to 1m 5f when comfortably beating three rivals at Ayr last month. He’s been raised 5lb for his Ayr win but today’s extra furlong can bring out more improvement. On the figures he seems to have a similar chance to Summer Knight. Yet he’s twice the price. If he was trained by one of the top Newmarket yards, he would be a single figure price.
Verdict: Plenty of potential improvers like Dhushan, Moshaawer and Valley Forge from top yards. Marshall Plan and Imperial Sun give the Gosden’s a strong hand in the race with a preference for the latter. Surrey Gold needs the rain to arrive but if it does he’s got a good chance. At bigger odds Hard To Fault and Ravenscraig Castle have each way claims.
1pt win – Imperial Sun – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
1pt each way – Ravenscraig Castle – 20/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – Surrey Gold – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:35 – Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (Heritage Handicap) – 1m 6f
My favourite race of the flat season and one I have had a decent record in. I found last year’s winner Fujaira Prince and the winners in 2017, 2013 & 2011. I have a shortlist of eight for this year’s renewal.
Hamish returns from a mammoth 458-day break but if any trainer can prepare on for an Ebor Handicap its William Haggas. I fancied this one for last year’s but he couldn’t run. The 2019 Melrose Handicap winner is 2-2 over C&D and looks on a winnable mark but he will want the rain to arrive to ease the ground. Haggas also saddles another York specialist in Ilaraab. He made it 2-2 here when winning a 1m 4f handicap in May. Only 4/1 for the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot but only 8th of 10. He’s better than he was able to show there but like his stablemate he would like some ease in the ground. First try beyond 1m 4f and if his stamina holds gives his trainer a strong hand in the race. Tom Marquand opts for Hamish which suggests he’s the stable’s number one. The trainer would dearly like to win the race but his race record is 0-7 although he did have 4th last year.
Trainer Johnny Murtagh saddled the winner of the Ebor in 2014 and has a big contender in the shape of Sonnyboyliston. The 4-year-old improved to win three handicaps last year, all three wins coming on good to soft. Has been campaigned in Group/Listed company this season and won a 1m 4 ½ f Listed contest at Limerick two starts back. A useful 4 ½ length 6th of 10 to Hukum in a C&D Group 3 last month. The cheekpieces are on for the first time this season and he did win in them last first-time last September. Dam stayed 2m 4f over hurdles so there’s a decent chance he will stay beyond 1m 4f to. Has been well backed ante post in the past week.
Trainer John Gosden saddled the winner of the Ebor in 2018. He’s got a very interesting contender in the lightly raced Humanitarian. The 5-year-old has only had the six career starts, winning three of them. First run since winning on his handicap debut at Newbury last September (1m 4f) and he’s only 4lb higher here. The first-time hood has been applied, he was very keen at Newbury, and if the headgear can settle him, he will have a decent chance of staying the distance. Yard has an exceptional record with runners in the first-time hood. Since 2016 – 17 winners from 55 runners 31% +71.29 31 placed 56% (+84.84). Best turf form on good or quicker ground so a lot of rain would be a slight concern.
Quickthorn relished testing ground when winning the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot. Not as good on quicker ground when two places behind Hukum in a C&D Group 3 last time. He’s only had seven career starts and is just 6lb higher than for his Royal Ascot success. If the rain does arrive to bring soft into the going description, he’s a big contender.
Tribal Craft is another who would prefer plenty of ease in the ground. The mares best four RPR’s have come on soft ground. She posted a career best on RPR’s when a 2-length runner-up to Wonderful Tonight in the Group 2 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood. This is her distance and given her present form can’t be ruled out easily.
You must respect a Wille Mullins trained runner. He saddled the Ebor winner in 2009 and runner-up in 2015. He relies on Mt Leinster. The 7-year-old has only had four starts on the level and ended 2020 winning his last two at Listowel & the Curragh. It’s his first start for 314-days but he’s gone well fresh in the past and his form figures when returning from a 121+ day layoff are 121. He should be fit enough for his return. This is his trip but he’s another who will probably want plenty of rain to arrive before post time. His best form on flat and over hurdles has come on soft ground.
Shanroe made it 3 wins from just 5 starts on the flat when winning a 1m 6f Premier Handicap at the Curragh last time. Looked like he needed every yard when winning at the Curragh and the harder they go here the better his chance. Another who will be looking for the ground to ease and if it does the 7-year-old is a lively each way contender for Irish trainer Karl Thornton.
Verdict: Plenty of connections will be hoping the rain arrives before post time. Hamish is one I really like but he does need some juice in the ground as does his stablemate Ilaraab. Sonnyboyliston could give his trainer Johnny Murtagh another success in the race. The more rain the better for Quickthorn the same can be said for Shanroe who has appealing claims. Given the Gosden’s record with horses racing in the first time It may pay to keep Humanitarian onside. It’s his seasonal reappearance but he won first time up last season. One of the fancied contenders who may prefer the rain to stay away though. Tribal Craft bring some classy form to the race and any rain enhances the mares claim. Mt Leinster has potential on the flat despite being a 7-year-old.
1pt win – Humanitarian – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
1pt each way – Shanroe – 20/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (14/1 @ Sky Bet who are paying 8 places).
1pt win – Sonnyboyliston – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
Two Class 2 handicaps conclude this year’s Ebor Festival and I’m banking on the rain arriving in decent amounts.
4:45 – Sky Bet Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2 ½ f
Migration came from the rear and showed a nice turn off foot to quicken clear of 10 rivals to win a Class 2 handicap at Goodwood last time. He handled the soft ground well that day so ant easing in the ground will be appreciated by the 5-year-old who is having his first start at York. Up 8lb for his Goodwood win but likely capable of better. William Buick stays in the saddle.
The 3-year-old Qaader was another decisive Goodwood (good to soft) winner last time. He’s also been raised 8lb for his last win but is a 3-year-old going the right way. Another having first start here.
Aerion Power was 4 lengths behind Qaader at Goodwood but gets an 8lb pull. The 3-year-old should get closer to that one today but probably wouldn’t the ground to ease too much. Stablemate Wahraan comes into the race bidding for hat trick after winning a Pontefract maiden and then improved again to win on his handicap debut at Newmarket last time. He might get further than 1m 2f but is an improving 3-year-old who should go well.
Another who would prefer good ground is Strait Of Hormuz. The 4-year-old bounced back to his best when a ¼ length 3rd of 20 in the John Smiths Cup over C&D last month. Up 4lb but won’t be far away if the ground stays on the quick side.
Tim Easterby who is having a good festival saddle’s Fishable. The 4-year-old likes a bit of juice in the ground and is effective over a mile and a quarter. He’s run well here before, finished a ¾ length 2nd of 14 over C&D last October and put in a career best when a 2 ¼ length 5th of 20 in the John Smith’s Cup last time. He’s just 3lb higher than when winning on soft ground at Ripon in May. If the ground eases he’s got each way claims.
Harrovian returned from a 3-month absence to finish a head 2nd of 8 at Doncaster 21-days ago. The 5-year-old is entitled to be there or thereabouts again off just 1lb higher. Maybe better in smaller fields and three career wins have all come on good to firm ground.
Snow Ocean put in a career best on turf when getting up on the line to win at Chester last month. Up 4lb but a 5lb apprentice who had a winner here earlier in the week has been booked for the ride which negates his rise in the weights. Each way claims if as effective on this more galloping track.
Verdict: Strait Of Hormuz needs the rain to stay away. Fishable wants juice in the ground and if he gets it can go close. Migration is a worthy favourite and goes well with ease in the ground. Wahraan is an improving 3-year-old who should be in the mix on his bid for a hat trick.
1pt win – Fishable – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:20 – Sky Bet Apprentice Handicap (Class 2) – 5f
Blind Beggar showed plenty of pace from the front when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 14 here over 6f (good to firm) 28-days ago. Given the speed the he showed last time the drop back shouldn’t inconvenience the 3-year-old and has the capable Joanna Mason in the saddle. Sole career win came on heavy at Catterick in May so any rain won’t compromise his chance.
Tim Easterby has won this race twice in 2016 & 2018. He saddles Showalong. A Chester winner over 5f on good to soft ground in May. Not disgraced when 5th of 17 here over 6f on quick ground in June. He won over C&D last autumn on soft ground so goes well with plenty of ease in the ground. Just 4lb higher than for his Chester win he loosk set for a big run given the form of the yard.
Blackrod finished 1 ¾ length and three places in front of Showalong in the York race and subsequently went on to win a Class 2 handicap at Newmarket on his next start. He’s an improving handicap sprinter but meets the Easterby horse on 11lb worse terms here. Not sure about the drop back to the minimum trip but trainer Michael Dods has saddled the winner of this race three times since 2017.
Nigel Tinkler saddled the winner of this in 2015 and he runs Imperium Blue who showed he handled good to soft ground well enough when a ½ length 2nd of 6 at Haydock last month. Won a 5 ½ f nursery here last autumn.
Kevin Ryan won this in 2014 and he’s got a couple of live contenders in Digital & Ben Macdui. A soft ground Musselburgh winner as a 2-year-old he returned to winning ways when beating three rivals at Ripon 12-days ago. Prior to that he had finished a good 3rd of 13 in a strong Goodwood 5f handicap. He’s 3lb higher than for his Ripon win but the trainer has booked Saffie Osborne for the ride. Ben Macdui can’t really be fancied on his form this season but he would be competitively weighted on his ¾ length 2nd of 10 in the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes at last season’s Qatar Goodwood Festival. The first-time blinkers are added and if the headgear has the desired effect he wouldn’t be far away.
The very much in form Grant Tuer saddles Tashgheel who is having first run for the trainer since leaving the Dermot Weld stable. The gelding responded to the reapplication of the visor when winning a Listowel maiden in June. That win came on soft ground and over an extended 6f. Should be able to win races but the visor he wore last time is removed and I’m not sure about the drop back to the minimum trip.
Verdict: Blind Beggar and Showalong are big contenders with the latter capable of giving trainer Tim Easterby a third win in the race if the ground has eased. Kevin Ryan’s Ben Macdui is interesting in the first-time blinkers and he’s nicely treated on his juvenile form if the headgear works. Tashgheel is interesting on his first start for Grant Tuer but maybe better over further. Blackrod is an improving handicap sprinter but is another who maybe better over 6f.
1pt win – Showalong – 17/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John