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You can't beat a Good Eye for a Great Horse
It's a skill that unfortunately we can't all have and it takes years to develop the skills that allow the race watcher to spot a horse that will be winning soon.
One man that has proven his ability with regards to spotting future winners is John Burke famous for his Victor Value big race selections.
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Analysis and selections for all the big races.
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Here's an example of the Victor Value Weekend Betting Previews
Weekend Betting Preview.
This is where I take a look at the Weekend’s big races to see if there is any value in the ante -post markets. Let’s put it this way we have plenty of good racing to look forward to at Newmarket on Friday and Saturday. That’s not even considering some excellent jumps action at Chepstow on Saturday and Sunday.
Newmarket – Friday - 12/10
2:25 - Godolphin Lifetime Care Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (Class 1) -7fA decent looking renewal of this juvenile race.
Aiden O’Brien has a handful of entries at the time of writing. The one I like most is recentDundalk winner Frosty. A full sister to Winter. She was easy to back on her debut but won fairly comfortably. Big step up in class but she’s in the “could be anything category”.
Another with just the one career run is the William Haggas trained Hidden Message. The daughter of Scat Daddy only had to be pushed out to win a Yarmouth maiden. Steps up a furlong here but can improve for it. Would be an interesting contender if her trainer was to run her.
One that looks overpriced is the Ed Walker trained Sunday Star. The daughter of Kodiacstill looked a bit inexperienced when a good winner over C&D 13 days ago. Was beaten just a head by Glance at Goodwood two starts back and that one is a best priced 9/1whilst the Ed Walker filly can be backed at 12/1.
Advice: Sunday Star – 12/1 @ Paddy Power (each way) - Finished 3rd
4:10 - bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 4f
Given the prize money on offer, £74,700 to the winner, it’s a shade disappointing that only11 have been declared to go to post for this year’s race.
Aiden O’Brien had several entries in the race but he just relies on the four-timing seekingAstronomer. The 3-year-old is improving and made all to win at Dundalk last month. His prominent style of running is favoured here. Carries top-weight of 9-7 but could be the proverbial Group horse in handicap.
Baritone trained by Sir Michael Stoute, finally broke his maiden tag at the 6th attempt when winning a Pontefract maiden on soft ground. Nice weight off 8-1 and has been nicely backed this week.
Soto Sizzler improved to win a Class 2 handicap at Goodwood two starts back before getting stuck in the mud at Haydock last month. The return to a sounder surface will suit.Each way claims if you throw out his last run.
Jack Regan trained by the inform Ian Williams, shouldn’t be underestimated. He hacked up over hurdles at Market Rasen on his last start. He’s fairly ground versatile and if he stays the extra two furlongs. Then he should be in the mix and has each way claims at14/1.
Rock Eagle went into the tracker when finishing 4th in a 1m 2f handicap at Goodwood 71days ago. The gelding just lacked the experience of the three that finished in front of him.
He remains open to plenty of improvement, having had just the four career starts.Finished his race of well enough at Goodwood to think he will stay today’s extra couple of furlongs.
Advice: Rock Eagle 9/2 or bigger and Jack Regan 14/1 (each way) - Rock Eagle Won - Jack Regan 4th
Saturday 13th October
The final declarations for the Saturday card are not available till Thursday lunchtime. Itlooks a cracking card though.
1:50 - Godolphin Flying Start Zetland Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 1m 2f
Aiden O’Brien has five entered in the race which he won last year with Kew Gardens. The appeal to most at this early stage his recent easy Naas maiden winner Norway. I can see him running in next year’s Derby. Should he run here 6/1 would look a fair price to this pundit.
Advice:Norway – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Sky Bet - Won
2:25 - Masar Godolphin Autumn Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) – 1m
Persian King looks to be the best French trained 2-year-old and I have already backed him for next years 2000 Guineas. Looks like Andre Fabre will bring over the colt to see how he acts on the track. If those of you who don’t mind an ante post bet so far ahead, he can still be backed at 20/1 with William Hill for next year’s first colt’s classic and he’s a standout 11/4, for this, with Bet365, much shorter with other firms.
Advice:Persian King 11/4 @ Bet365 - Won
3:40 - Dubai £500,000 Cesarewitch Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 2m 2f
One of the flat spectacles of the season with a maximum field of 34 set to race over this marathon trip.
It looks a top-class renewal. I am not sure where to start. Willie Mullins has seven entered in the race, including ante-post favourite Stratum who was unlikely in the Ebor and could still be ahead of the handicapper. Of the rest of his possible runners Law Girl interests me, especially if the ground was on the quick side of good. The 5-year-old has to prove her stamina for 2m 2f. But she can race off the same mark as when beaten a head by stablemate Limini at Leopardstown and is4lb better off at the weights. Interesting at 20/1 or bigger but is by no means a certain runner and she’s 14/1 for the Irish Cesarewitch.
Aiden O’Brien could saddle Southern France. Despite his big weight the 3-year-old has atouch of class having finished 3rd in the St Leger. He could be a Gold Cup contender next year. If he’s at that level he looks well handicapped off 107.
Cleonte, trained by Andrew Balding, looks to have been trained for the race. He hasn’t been seen since winning the 2m handicap at the Shergar Cup. The absence won’t be anissue as he’s gone well fresh in the past. The 5-year-old has only been put up 3lb for hisAscot win and looks set to go well.
Stars Over The Sea, made all to win Cesarewitch Trial over C&D, three weeks ago. Has a4lb penalty to shoulder for that success. Won’t be allowed an uncontested lead like he waslast time but should go well and appeals at a decent each-way price. Trainer Ian Williamsalso saddles Speedo Boy who will be ridden by William Buick. The 4-year-old didn’t getthe best of runs when 5th of 14 in Mallard Handicap at Doncaster. Granted his staminaisn’t proven over 2m 2f. But if he stays I think he could still be on a winnable mark.
Theglasgowwarrior, finished just ahead of Speedo Boy in the Mallard. The way the 4-yearoldfinished off his race that day suggests he should be able to say the 2m 2f distance andhas each way claims.
Precious Ramotswe, is an interesting entry for John Gosden, who bids to win the AutumnDouble. The 4-year-old. A winner of a Group 3 at York back in May. She found the going ashade to quick when 3rd in the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks. A poor run at Goodwood inAugust but ran better when 5th of 11 to Kitesurf (Group 1 winner since) at Deauville inAugust. Has been freshened with a 55-day break but she has won off on her seasonalreappearance. The 4-year-old would go close if she stays the trip.
Advice: Southern France – 10/1 or bigger Cleonte – 16/1 (each way) Speedo Boy – 25/1 (each way) The Glasgowwarrior – 33/1 (each way) - Cleonte finished 3rd
Until next week.
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