Hi all,
Well I didn’t miss out in not putting up Ice Cold In Alex up yesterday, although he did finish second at Cork.
Unusually for a Monday there are a couple of interesting handicaps.
Windsor
1:35 – A cracking 6f sprint handicap for a Monday afternoon.
Belated Breath will be suited by the drying ground and will be sharper for her seasonal return at Haydock and she’s 2 from 2 on her second run of the season. She’s also got a good overall win strike rate 6 wins from 19 runs 10 placed. Osin Murphy is back in the saddle and he’s 6 wins from 10 rides +24.63 when partnering the filly. Plenty of positives about this previous C&D winner chance here.
Open Wide is also at his best on a sound surface the faster the better for him. He hasn’t won the number of races that his ability suggests – just 4 wins from 35 runs but he has placed on 17 occasions. Last year he beat all but Khaadem in the Goodwood Stewards Cup and arguably put in a career best when third to the Swindler at Ascot last September off 3lb higher. His hold up style makes him hostage to fortune in his races but given a strong gallop he should be finishing race off stronger than most. He had a couple of runs this season so should be spot on fitness wise.
Beyond Equal is a speedy sort who can be a keen goer as he showed when a 1 ¾ length second to Highland Dress on seasonal return at Newmarket last month. The 5-year-old had a productive 3-year-old campaign winning four times. Found life tougher last season but did manage to win at Bath over 5 ½ f last June. The drying ground is in his favour and he’s got each way claims.
Verdict: I find it hard to split Open Wide and Belated Breath. The former looks well handicapped on his best form but needs a race run to suit and to be produced on the line to win. Belated Breath is a consistent filly who wins her fair share of races and will be all the better for her seasonal reappearance and can go close. Beyond Equal made a pleasing return to action at Newmarket and is another who can run well.
1pt win – Open Wide – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt win – Beyond Equal – 10/1 @ Bet365
Kempton
7:15 – Vibrance made it 4 from 4 over C&D when winning 22-days ago. The handicapper has raised her 6lb for that success but she won with a bit in hand that day and may be able to defy her rise in the weights. That said she’s a best priced 15/8 so it maybe worth looking for an each-way alternative.
Jersey Wonder won over C&D 12-days ago. He was always in a prominent position in a race at a moderate gallop that day. A 3lb rise isn’t excessive and could be open to a bit more improvement.
Pianissimo was in good form on the all-weather last winter and beat Jersey Wonder over C&D last November. At the weights he will struggle to confirm that form with that one and his three starts since racing resumed have been poor.
Dazzling Rock is the most interesting of the nine runners. The lightly raced 5-year-old clearly hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound as this will only be his ninth career start and his first run since winning at Chelmsford in April 2019. Goes well off a lay off and is probably still on a winnable mark but may find competition for lead here.
Verdict: It’s hard to look beyond C&D specialist Vibrance but Jersey Wonder & Dazzling Rock have claims should the favourite run below par.
1pt win – Dazzling Rock – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
Cheers
John