Hi all,
A tremendous days racing whether you like jumps or flat you have plenty to go at today. I will begin Saturday’s betting preview by looking at a fantastic Scottish Grand National card from Ayr.
Saturday April 13th 2019
Ayr
1:25 – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (Class 1) 2m ½ f
It takes a brave punter to oppose a Dan Skelton horse at this meeting and he has the likely favourite in Azzuri whose having his first run since a wind-operation and by-passed Aintree on account of the soft ground. Must have a big chance here and looks well handicapped. It’s arguably not the strongest ever renewal of the race. Trainer is now 5 winners from 9 runners 55% +12.50 with his handicap chasers at Ayr that were in the first three in the betting.
Azzuri – 3/1 – Gen
1:55 – J & D Pierce Novices Champion Handicap Chase – 3m
It could be another winner here for Dan Skelton with Molly The Dolly. The mare is 2 wins from 3 runs since going chasing won her first two starts at Aintree(good) and Uttoxeter (good to soft) before disappointing on soft ground at Newbury back in December. This is her first start for 115-days but her form figures when returning from a 90+day break are 1311.
Molly The Dolly – 5/1 @ Paddy Power
3:35 – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) – 4m
Irish raider Crosshue Boy has been backed in from 33/1 to 12/1 this week. The 9-year-old put up a career best when beating Dingo Dollar by a length in the 3m novices handicap chase on this card 12-months. At the revised weights there shouldn’t be much between the pair again. It just depends who improves for the step up to 4m.
The first three in the 3m 2f Grimthorpe Chase re-oppose here Chidswell beat Dingo Dollar and Brian Boranha that day. The winner has 7lb more to carry today and at the revised weights both the second and third can get closer to the Nicky Richards trained runner today. Of the three the one most likely to appreciate this 4m distance is Brian Boranha. The 8-year-old is just 5lb higher than when winning the 3m 5f Durham National by 9 lengths on good ground back in October, The step to a marathon trip really suited him and after the race his trainer Peter Niven told the Racing Post: “This was the plan for a long time and I think he’ll make a Scottish National horse”. At around 25/1 he looks good each-way value.
Big River, trained by Lucinda Russell was sent off the 5/1 favourite for the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle last December. The 9-year-old was still travelling well enough when falling at the 10th. He was then given a confidence booster over hurdles at Carlisle 16-days later. Not seen out again until the 3m 1f Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He was badly out paced coming to the 13th but was finishing the race off strongly coming two out and ran on to finish 4th of 24, beaten just 6 ½ lengths. The gelding shaped like a real stayer that day and went into the notebook as a type who would appreciate the 4m of the Scottish Grand National. The only slight worry would be the good ground, he won over hurdles and a NHF race on good early in his career but his best form over fences has come on soft or heavy.
Big River – 10/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
Brian Boranha – 33/1 @ Paddy Power -each way – (paying 6 places 1/5 odds) or 25/1 @ William Hill each way – (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
4:10 – Solomon Grey, trained by Dan Skelton, was an eyecatcher when finishing second in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton 91-day ago. That performance was a career best and came on good ground, so the 7-year-old has his underfoot conditions once again here. Up 5lb since Kempton but looks the one to beat with his trainer being in such good form at the Festival already.
Solomon Grey – 7/2 – Gen
Newbury
3:15 – MansionBet Spring Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
Plenty in with a chance here. As you would expect from a 27 runners handicap.
Circus Couture would go close if replicating his 3rd placed effort in last season’s Royal Hunt Cup. Frankie Dettori is an eyecatching jockey booking 5 wins from 13 rides 38% when teaming up with trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam.
Humbert, one of two David O’Meara trained runners was fancied for the Lincoln Handicap on his debut for the trainer. He ran no sort of race at Doncaster, but he was runner-up in this race last year off 2lb lower and should appreciate the softer ground.
Another Batt has a tough task under top weight but has each way claims. He was 6th in the Lincoln and must be respected on his close up 4th of 20 to Sharja Bridge in the valuable Balmoral Handicap at Ascot back in October.
Exec Chief, put in career best when beaten just ½ length in the Spring Mile at Doncaster 14 days ago. Up 5lb for that effort demands more from the 4-year-old but he still looks to be improving, he would have preferred an easier surface at Doncaster and is 2 wins from 2 runs at Newbury.
Another Batt – 20/1 @ Bet365 – each way – (paying 5 places ¼ odds)
Exec Chief – 8/1 @ William Hill
5:35 – Frontispiece, is having his first start for Amanda Perrett since moving from the Sir Michael Stoute stable. The 5-year-old was a bit quirky for his previous trainer, but he won first time up in 2016 & 2017 and was runner up last year, so he goes well fresh, His best three performances on Racing Post Ratings also have come on soft ground over today’s distance. His new trainer is 2 winners from 5 runners 40% + with stable switcher’s in handicaps in the past two seasons. First time up could be the time to catch him and he must be considered an each-way contender.
Frontispiece – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way – (both paying 4 places 1/4 odds)
Cheers
John