Hi all,
At last a couple of winner’s courtesy of Abel Handy & Longhouse Poet. They don’t make up for what’s been a poor week so far, but a profitable day is always welcomed.
Well it’s the final day of the Punchestown Festival and the start of Guineas Weekend at Newmarket with the highlight of a cracking card being the Qipco 2,000 Guineas.
Apologies in advance, today’s betting preview is shorter than normal. As I have been feeling fairly fatigued today. I have selections from Punchestown and Newmarket for you today. As well as a couple of eyecatchers running at Goodwood & Thirsk. All on what looks a big weekend’s betting.
Newmarket
1:50 – A 1m 1f handicap over the Cambridgeshire distance. Al Muffrih head the betting at 7/2. Trained by William Haggas. He was highly regarded as three-year-old winning a Newbury maiden over 1m 2f on his seasonal reappearance. Before disappointing at Sandown back in June. First start for 331-days but did win first time up last year. Has been gelded over the winter and makes his handicap debut here. Could be nicely handicapped off 91.
Power of Darkness, trained by Marcus Tregoning, won two of his four starts last season, both at Salisbury on good to firm ground. Returned to action over a mile here 16-days ago. He was finishing his race of well that day and was only beaten a head into second. Up 2lb for that performance should be fine over the extra furlong. Can win races off his present mark.
Al Muffrih – 7/2 @ William Hill & Paddy Power
2:55 – If you have had a chance to look at this week’s weekly notebook you will have seen that I have put Mildenberger up as one of last week’s tracker performance at Epsom. The 4-year-old was doing his best work at the finish over 1m 2f and should be well suited by the extra two furlongs he races here. The return to a more conventional track, won the Fielden Stakes here last year, before running finishing runner-up to Roaring Lion in the Dante, will also suit the 4-year-old he didn’t seem to handle the Epsom undulations to well. Granted this is a tough ask as it’s a Group 2 contest and last week’s race was a Class 2 handicap. But I don’t think he will be disgraced here. It’s just a shame we have just the seven going to post.
Mildenberger – 8/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
3:35 – The Qipco 2,000 Guineas – Fancied horses have been dropping like flies in the run-up to the race. In my Monday Daily Punt column, I noted that Aidan O’Brien could have the key to the first colts classic and he saddles Ten Sovereigns & Magna Grecia. In the end Ryan Moore has opted for the former and as expected the latter has drifted out to second favourite. If there is to be a superstar among the field, it’s probably going to be Ten Sovereigns. But will he stay? Magna Grecia gets the mile well and has been trained for this race since he won the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster last October. I wouldn’t put anyone of Madhmoon who looks a solid each-way contender. The openness of the race has tempted Godolphin to supplement the Charlie Appleby trained Al Hilalee. The son of Dubawi won both his two starts as juvenile. He was being trained for a tilt at the Derby.
Verdict: Al Hilalee is open to plenty of improvement and shouldn’t be underestimated. He should be staying on nicely at the finish. At around 16/1 he must merit some interest at an each- way price although my first choice is the solid Magna Grecia.
Magna Grecia -5/1 @ Ladbrokes & William Hill
Al Hilalee -16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
5:20 – Richard Hannon saddles three contenders in this Class 2 handicap in Mordred, Leroy Leroy and Brian Epstein and it’s the latter that is my preference. He improved with each of his three starts as a juvenile and ended his season by winning over a mile at Kempton back in October. The colt made a pleasing return to action when 5th of 14 over C&D at the Craven Meeting 17-days ago. He’s a strong scopey 3-year-old whose open to further improvement and can surely win a race off his present mark of 84.
Brian Epstein – 11/2 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
Punchestown
I’m concentrating on the three competitive looking big field handicaps on the final day of the Punchestown Festival.
3:10 – Plenty of the 18 runners in this 3m 7f handicap chase have questions to answer, including my selection Some Neck.
Some Neck won a small field Grade 2 here over 2m 6 ½ f back in November. He was then sent off just 15/2 second favourite for the valuable Thyestes Handicap Chase on his next start but fell at the 8th. He was then sent off the 9/2 favourite for the Boylesports Grand National Trial but could only finish 6th of 16. Given his strength in the market for those better races he must be given a good chance. Will the 8-year-old stay the distance and is better suited to smaller fields? We’ll find out the answers to those questions this afternoon.
Some Neck – 7/1 – Gen
5:00 – A field of 11 are declared to go to post for this 3m ½ f handicap chase. The two that I like most are Acting Lass and Walk To Freedom.
Acting Lass, returns from a 434-day absence. The 8-year-old looked a useful handicapper chaser in the making, having won three of his four starts over fences all going right handed. He’s won after a 365-day break in the past so should be fine fitness wise. Slightly softer ground may be preferable, but he returns off what looks a winnable mark, just 1lb higher than for his last win and trainer Harry Fry has already had a winner at the meeting this week.
Walk To Freedom, has no fitness questions to answer, as the 9-year-old put in a great effort to finish 3rd at Fairyhouse on his return to fences 12 -days ago. Better known for his exploits over hurdles but he can race off a 6lb lower mark over fences. He goes well at Punchestown 1 win from 3 runs 2 placed and should go close here.
Walk To Freedom – 7/2 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
Acting Lass – 4/1 @ William Hill & Bet365
5:35 – A 2m 4f handicap hurdle for which a field of 25 are set to go to post. This is the trickiest of the three handicaps on the card. My three against the field are:
Canardier, was 5th of 25 in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham before finishing 3rd in another big field handicap hurdle at Aintree 29-days ago. He handled the soft ground in both races well enough but he’s an even better horse in a sounder surface which he should get today. If those runs haven’t taken the edge of this consistent 7-year-old, he will go close.
Out Of The Loop, was in winning form when last seen in action 434-day ago. The 6-year-old is looking for the hat trick today but is 11lb higher in the weights than for his last win at Fairyhouse. Lightly raced this will only be his 7th career starts and remains open to further progress. Best form has come on soft ground but a sounder surface shouldn’t be too much of an issue.
Spades Are Trumps. like Out of The Loop is owned by J P McManus. He returned from a 316-day lay off to finish 6th of 19 at Naas two starts back. Built on that sold return to action when 2nd of 14 at Fairyhouse 12-days ago. Although the 6-year-old is dropping back in trip 2f, he’s on the same mark as last time and can go close again. Trainer Gavin Cromwell could do with a winner as he’s 0 winners from 37 runners in the past 14-day. Despite that negative stat I expect him to be competitive again at track he won his maiden hurdle at back in 2017.
Canardier – 9/1 @ Paddy Power
Out Of The Loop – 11/1 – Gen
Spades Are Trumps – 16/1 @ Coral – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Eyecatchers Running:
There are two recent eyecatchers running today:
Goodwood
2:40 – Whitefountainfairy – 9/1 @ William Hill – The 4-year-old caught the eye when 4th on her seasonal reappearance at Kempton two starts back. She also posted tow of her best turf efforts over C&D. First, when runner-up in a Group 3 as a juvenile to a future 1,000 Guineas winners and then when 7th of 17 in a handicap last August. On the latter occasion she was beaten just 5 ¾ lengths despite not getting the clearest of runs twice in the final two furlongs. Racing off a 5lb lower mark now she’s the type to need all the cards to fall right but when they do, she handicapped to win.
Thirsk
4:15 – Fennaan – 16/1 @Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds) – Went into the tracker after his first start at Musselburgh, for new trainer Philip Makin, 32-days ago. Wasn’t well drawn that day but did well to finish as close as he did at the finish. First run at a mile today in this competitive handicap but once again hasn’t got a great draw in stall 14. He’s handicapped to win again off his present mark that’s for sure, but will it be today? Personally, I think 7f will be his optimum but he still has each way claims.
Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available
All selections win only unless indicated as each way.
Cheers
John