Hi all,
Another day and another each way bet landed. Sadly, it hasn’t done much for the betting bank, but we still have two days to make a profit. However, I suspect today will be a decisive day on how the four days go.
York Ebor Festival – Day 3
1:55 – Jazeel is being aimed at the Cambridgeshire but shaped like he would worth a go at 1m 4f after a career best effort at Goodwood 24-days ago. He’s had a good season winning at Sandown winning at Sandown three starts back. His one slightly below par run came here in the John Smith’s Cup. Three wins on good to firm and shouldn’t be far away for inform Jedd O’Keeffe.
Another horse stepping up to 1m 4f is Caradoc. The 4-year-old has returned from a near 11-month absence in great form winning two of his four starts and is 2 wins from 3 runs stepping up to 1m 2f. He was a very impressive winner at Windsor 11-days ago and carries just a 5lb penalty for that success. He finished his race of strongly at Windsor and the son of Camelot must have a good chance of staying 1m 4f.
Indianapolis is at his best when coming off a strong pace as he showed when winning at the Shergar Cup. 13-days ago. He’s been raised 3lb for that win but the 4-year-ol remains capable of more progress. Mandarin was ½ length back in third and gets 2lb from the winner. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again, but I think Indianapolis has the potential for more progress.
Cardoc – 15/2 @ Paddy Poer or 7/1 @Bet365 & William Hill
Indianapolis – 11/1 @ Ladbrokes – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odda)
3:00 – Any Kevin Ryan runner in the Gimcrack needs respecting, given he’s won the race in the three times in the past ten-years. He saddles three this year and all of them have chances. Spartan Fighter has won his last two starts for Declan Carroll, latterly here over 5 ½ 42-days ago. Trainer thinks the horse is the best 2-year-old he’s trained and has been aimed at this race since last win. Karl Burke has his juveniles in fine form and one of his runners Dubai Station must enter calculations. Third in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot two starts back he’s subsequently finished 3rd to Sunday’s impressive Prix Morny winner Earthlight. That’s good form and he’s got place claims in the hands of Frankie Dettori.
Spartan Fighter – 8/1 @ Paddy Power or 15/2 @ William Hill & Bet365
Dubai Station – 12/1 @ Ladbrokes – each way (paying 4 places 1/5 odds )
3:35 – I think it might be worth taking on Ten Sovereigns, despite his impressive win in the July Cup. Battaash is arguably the fastest horse in the race over 5f but he’s been beaten in this race in the past two years after coming here after a win at Goodwood. Not sure if it’s the track he doesn’t like or the big crowd or this race comes to quick after Goodwood. Now he could make it third time lucky today but there are reasons to be wary about that happening. The solid option is Mabs Cross who was beaten a nose in the race last years before going onto win the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp on Arc Day, with Battaash was back in 4th. The mare had been trained for this, goes well fresh and the harder they go up front the better she is. Solid each way contender at around 5/1.
Mabs Cross – 5/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill
4:15 – The most valuable maiden of the British Flat season. The Roger Varian trained Molatham made a premising debut, when finishing runner-up, at Ascot 28-days ago. He was weak in the market that day so can be expected come on for that run. The winner Mums Tipple but in an extraordinary performance to win the big sales race here yesterday. Not surprisingly the bookies are running scared and have the colt a very short priced favourite here. There was plenty of support for the Andrew Balding trained Fox Duty Free on his Newbury debut. He probably lost his race at the start after being hampered when leaving the stalls. In the circumstances he did well to get within ½ length of the winner. Today’s extra furlong will suit the son of Kingman who will races.
Fox Duty Free – 9/2 @ William Hill
4:50 – A 17 runner handicap for 3-year-old’s is a tricky concluding race and I like the claims of three runners.
Top Vision was available at 25/1 with William Hill on Thursday afternoon which was too good to miss and not surprisingly he’s now less than half that price. The top weight won here as a juvenile before going to win the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood on his next start. Not so good on subsequent starts but shaped like he was coming back to form when a staying on 4th of 14 at Newmarket two starts back. Was well fancied, sent off just 8/1, for the Golden Mile Handicap back at Goodwood but in truth had no chance from his draw in 19. Irv steps up in class after two C&D wins and he’s been put up 7lb for the last of those wins 28-day ago. This demands more but he could be capable of defying it and given his liking for the track he needs respecting. Fastman has run well here in the past and he looks worth ago at mile after his strong finishing second at Newmarket 20-days ago. He can go well for David O’Meara but is vulnerable to any progressive types in the field.
Dark Vision – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Irv – 9/1 @ Coral
Fastman – 11/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John