Hi all,
Well finally after weeks of dry weather the rain has started to arrive, and the going is turning soft. Just a few days before Cheltenham as well.
Sadly, there was notebook last week due to my recent illness. However, the antibiotics seem to have done the trick and I am getting back to full health.
I had a question from a subscriber asking me about horses in the tracker and should you keep them in after a win. On balance I tend to remove a winner from the tracker. Although, there are odd occasions when I will keep them. Normally, this occurs when I think a horse is improving and can win again or there is a potential big race that they will be targeted at.
So, my main rules are:
- Remove a winner, unless the there are mitigating circumstances as I have mentioned above.
- Remove after three runs, unless the horse in question has been an eyecatcher again. It does sometimes happen.
Well the start of the Cheltenham Festival is now just four days away. But we still have some decent racing this weekend, at Sandown in particular.
As ever before looking at the weekend’s big race action. Let’s look at this week’s five horses to follow.
This Weeks Horses to Follow
We are coming to that point in the jumps season when National Hunt notebook horses start to drop off unless they are going to the spring festivals, after Cheltenham, or a big race. This first of the week’s six tracker horses is actually from the previous week’s racing.
Thursday 21st March
Wolverhampton
Lancelot Du Lac, trained by Dean Ivory, isn’t as good as he used to be, but he shaped with promise when 4th of 8 at Wolverhampton. The 9-year-old found it all happening to quickly over 5f but was finishing off his race well enough to get within 1 ¾ lengths of the winner. This was just 2nd run since returning from a 140-day break.
He’s now 1lb below his last winning mark on the all-weather and even better handicapped on turf. On the evidence of this performance he’s capable of winning again when returned to 6f.
Friday
Newbury 1st March
Djin Conti, trained by Henry Whittington. The 6-year-old a winner over hurdles at Wincanton last May was making his debut over fences. Weak in the market before the race he outran market expectations when finishing 4th behind the improving Orchardstown Cross in the novices’ handicap chase.
The cheekpieces he wore on his last two runs were removed here. He could never really get into contention but was staying on well enough at the finish and shaping like he needs 3m over fences. Given his lack of experience over the larger obstacles this was a nice start to his chase career and I think he can win race like this before the season is out.
Saturday 2nd March
Newbury
Milansbar, trained by Neil King, put up his best effort of the season so far when finishing a nine length 4th of 11 in the veterans’ chase. He was just plugging on at the end of the race, but the 12-year-old would have preferred much softer ground than he got here.
All his top five Racing Post Ratings (RPR’S) have come on soft or heavy. Granted, he’s just a one paced staying chaser whose best days are behind him but he’s dropped down to an appealing handicap mark when he gets his ground.
Gala Ball, trained by Philip Hobbs, was returning from a 707-day layoff. The last time the 9-year-old had been seen on the racecourse he had finished runner-up to Warrior’s Tale over C&D. In the circumstance his runner-up effort in the Greatwood Gold Cup was an excellent effort. Racing off the same mark as he did in March 2017, he looked on a competitive mark if he retained his old ability and so it proved.
Unfortunately, he came up against a well handicapped rival in San Benedeto on this occasion. Still if he can build on this run, clearly the dreaded bounce factor could come into play, he’s on a good mark and can land a handicap chase. He could get a bit further than 2m 4f and softer ground would be his favour too, 4 wins from 7 runs 7 placed on soft.
Defi Scare, trained by Richard Hobson, a winner over fences when trained in France. The 6-year-old was having his third start for the trainer. He had made a promising debut at Doncaster in January but disappointed back at the same track 17-days later.
This was much better from him after a recent wind-op in finishing 5th of 13 in the 2m ½ f novices handicap hurdle. He seemed to find the distance on the short side, being slightly outpaced coming to three out before staying on after the last.
His French win came on very soft ground so more give underfoot should suit him as could a step up in trip.
Wolverhampton
Monday 4th March
Kilbaha Lady, trained by Nigel Tinkler, looked nicely handicapped mare on her best turf form of last summer. The 5-year-old had run well on her previous two starts since returning from a short break. Slightly slow away, which turned out not be an inconvenience given the race was run to suit those making their effort from the rear. Despite not getting the clearest of passage twice through the race she still managed to get within a length of the winner at the line.
A moderate Class 6 handicap like this should be within her compass off this sort of mark, when all the cards fall better than they did on Monday.
Weekend Betting Preview – Part 1
This weekend I am going to concentrate on the Sandown card for selections but there maybe some from Ayr, Wolverhampton and Gowran Park depending on entries. More on those in tomorrow evenings post/email.
The big betting race on Saturday is the Matchbook Imperial Cup at Sandown and I will look a deeper look at that race. Before that we have a recent eyecatcher running at Sandown on Friday..
Friday 8th Match
Sandown
4:10 – Ardmayle – 4/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill – Bounced back to something like his best on his debut over fences last time. A third placed effort behind Not Another Muddle over C&D looks solid form. The 7-year-old aces similar going today and should be capable of being competitive once again. There should be more progression in him and if he produces his C&D form he can give us a good run for money.
Saturday 9th March
Sandown
2:25 – Matchbook Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m
I can’t say I have had much luck in the race in the past but as ever hope springs eternal. The racecourse management will be a shade disappointed that just 16 out of possible 22 runners stand their ground for this year’s renewal.
Here are the runners on shortlist. The odds in brackets are the best priced available on Thursday evening.
Dr Richard Newland had a couple of entries at the five-day stage: Leoncavallo & Storm Rising. The former doesn’t take his place, but the latter does. We haven’t seen Storm Rising (14/1) since he ran below expectations in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham back in November. Prior to that the 6-year-old had won his two previous starts. The rain softened ground tempers enthusiasm slightly.
Recent Kempton eyecatcher Solomon Grey (14/1), trained by Dan Skelton, need respecting on his 2nd of 14 in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton in January. No issues with the drop back to the minimum trip but the going could be. The 7-year-old won on soft ground at Market Rasen last season but there is the suspicion he might be a better horse on a sounder surface.
Top-weight Call Me Lord (8/1), trained by Nicky Henderson, is the class horse of the field there’s no doubt about it. Despite carrying 11-12 he can’t be ruled out on a track he really likes. He was runner-up in this race last year off 8lb lower and his form figures around here are 1121.
The trainer also has an interesting contender in Dream Du Grand Val (7/1). The 6-year-old has won his last two starts although neither race was strong. However, the style of both wins suggests a mark of 139 could be a lenient one.
Recent Ascot eyecatcher Malaya (6/1) is Paul Nicholls only runner in the race. No problem with soft ground for the mare who looks capable of going close off 136.
Last time out C&D winner Monsieur Lecoq (5/1) look sure to go well on soft ground off his light weight. He’s won his last races on soft & heavy. Up 8lb for his last win but he’s progressing with each race and you can see why he heads the ante-post market.
Benny’s Bridge (8/1), made a winning handicap debut at Cheltenham 42-days ago. The 6-year-old was given a nice patient ride by Paddy Brennan steadily making headway coming to the last. His jockey produced him to win on the run in and the gelding went on to win by a comfortable 2 ¾ lengths. Up 14lb in the weights and a more competitive race makes life tougher. He will also run from 8lb out of the weights here. Remains open to improvement and will need to do.
David Pipe,who won this race in 2014 and who’s father Martin liked to lay one out for the race. He saddles handicap debutant Extra Mag (7/1). A winner two starts back at Exeter. The 5-year-old improved on that performance when finishing runner-up at Kempton 40-days ago. Handicap debut today and connections opt for the first time cheekpieces. There must be a good chance that a mark of 134 could underestimate him.
Blu Cavalier (16/1), who had been beaten in a Fakenham seller two starts back. He then went on to out run his 100/1 odds when finishing 3rd to Al Dancer in the rescheduled Betfair Hurdle at Ascot last month. The 9-year-old could be slightly flattered by his proximity to that smart winner, but he shouldn’t be underestimated. Each way contender with Jonjo O’Neill once again taking 5lb off the geldings back.
Verdict: An ultra-competitive handicap hurdle. There are seven on my shortlist for the race but at this stage I will hold fire until the next e-mail as to my final selections.
Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available
All selections win only unless indicated as each way.
Good luck with your bets.
Cheers
John