Hi all,
Well it’s the start of the Irish Flat season on Sunday as Naas hosts the Lincolnshire Handicap and this time next week over this side of the Irish Sea, we’ll be preparing for the start of the UK flat season with Doncaster’s Lincoln Meeting.
This Saturday the ITV cameras are heading to Kelso, for one of their best cards of the season, and Newbury. At the latter track the feature race is EBF Mares Novice’s Hurdle Series Final.
As I mentioned last week. My horses to follow at this stage of the jumps season tend to follow into two categories:
- Horses that are being aimed at races at the remaining spring festivals like, Aintree, Ayr or Punchestown.
- Horses for the next jumps season.
The latter group tend to be numerically small but there are usually handful to carry on into the next jumps season.
March is also a month when I start to cull horses from the tracker to create space for the upcoming flat season.
This Week’s Horses to Follow
It’s time for a last look back at Cheltenham 2019 but first a race at Sandown run on the Saturday before Cheltenham:
Saturday 9th March
Sandown
European Breeders’ Fund Matchbook VIP “National Hunt” Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3).
This race has traditionally been a good source of future winners. Indeed, if you had backed all the runners in the race blindly on their next start you would have made a level stakes profit of £84.89 to a £1 stake.
The first three finishers in this year’s race: Third Wind. One For Rosie & Champagne Well can all win races.
Third Wind, stayed the 2m 4f trip really well and looks capable of more improvement over further.
One For Rosie, looked the most likely winner between the final two hurdles but was just done by a stronger stayer on the soft ground He looks like a nice novice chaser for next season at 2m 4f+ especially on less testing ground.
Champagne Well, is 0 wins from 4 runs 4 placed since going hurdling but will soon win a maiden hurdle race on the evidence of his third placed effort here.
Southern Sam, trained by Oliver Sherwood, stayed on well into 5th. A four raced maiden over hurdles He’s improving with racing and can win races either this season or next.
Cheltenham Review
Tuesday 12th March
There were four that caught my eye in The Ultima Handicap Chase on Day 1 and I have a feeling that Grand National winner was running in the race. I put up Up For Review in my Monday Daily Punt column as a horse for the tracker.
Up For Review, trained by Willie Mullins, was sent off one the 8/1 co-favourites for the race.
The 10-year-old had made his seasonal reappearance when finishing an encouraging third in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park in January.
Lightly raced for his age having just had the 16 starts under rules, winning 6 of them. This was only his 7th start over fences. He was travelling powerfully on the heels of the leaders when making a bad mistake three out. That knocked the stuffing out of him, and he eventually finished 8th. He wasn’t subjected to a hard race after the second last and he enters the final weeks of the season fresher than most. He’s one to keep onside either in the Aintree or Irish National’s.
Big River, trained by Lucinda Russell, needs to improve his jumping but he’s a well handicapped horse at present, as he showed here when staying on well from the last to finish 4th. The Irish or Scottish Grand Nationals look ideal races for the 9-year-old.
Vintage Clouds, trained by Sue Smith, was always up with the pace and surprisingly didn’t hit his usual ‘flat spot’ during the race. If you fancy him for the Grand National, you won’t have been discouraged by this performance.
Lake View Lad, trained by Nick Alexander, and in the same ownership as Vintage Clouds. The 9-year-old put in a great performance under top-weight of 11-12. Slightly outpaced coming to three out, he was staying on well all the way to the line. He wasn’t subjected to hard a race as the two that finished in front of him. This race should have put him spot on fitness wise for Aintree.
The Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase was turned into a procession by the clearly well-handicapped, easy winner, A Plus Tard who will could well make up into a Grade 1 chaser next season. However, several are worth keeping on side:
Ben Dundee, trained by Gordon Elliott, finished third. The 7-year-old was making his handicap chase debut and looks up to winning a handicap chase off his current mark.
Russian Doyen, trained by Colin Tizzard, ran well for a long way before finishing 4th. The 6-year-old was only the second of his trainers’ runners to place at this year’s festival. Maybe 2m 4f on soft ground just stretched his stamina. He’s just had the four starts over fences, winning two of them. He looks on a competitive mark and won’t mind a less testing surface.
Shady Operator, trained by Joseph O’Brien, was another making his handicap debut. It all seemed to be happening to quick, over 2m 4f, for the 6-year-old who plugged on into 7th. Which is not surprising has he had looked a 3m +chaser in the making when beating Ballyward in a 3m 1f beginners’ chase at Punchestown back in December. His jumping needs to improve but he’s only had the four starts over fences, so time is on his side in that regard. One to note in handicap chases when stepping back up to 3m+
Riders Onthe Storm, who had impressed when winning at Punchestown on his previous start was weak in the betting before the off and only got as far as the 6th before falling. The 6-year-old remains lightly raced over fences and he’s not one to give up on just yet.
Wednesday 13th March
Bright Forecast, trained by Ben Pauling, did best of the hold up horses when staying on really well to finish 3rd in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. The 5-year-old is bred to be a chaser and he will be an exciting recruit to novice chases next season. Tom Segal (Pricewise) already fancies him for next year’s RSA Novices’ Chase. He’s one for next season category that for sure.
Canardier, trained by Dermot McLoughlin, a novice hurdle winner at Cheltenham on his last start back in October returned to C&D to run a cracker in finishing 5th in the Coral Cup on his handicap hurdle debut. The 7-year-old has only had the nine career starts, winning three of them. Prior to this run his best form had come on a sound surface but he showed here that he can be effective on soft to. His record on good to yielding or quicker is 3 wins from 5 runs +8.75 5 placed with form figures 11231.
Maybe best caught after a break but there’s no doubt he started out in handicap hurdles on a competitive looking mark. I wonder if connections will target the gelding at next years Festival, given he likes the track and is effective in big fields, in the hope of slightly quicker ground?
Thursday 14th March
Tobefair, trained by Debra Hamer, had indicated that he was returning to something like his best when 2nd of 11 at Chepstow back in February and ran even better in finishing runner-up in the Pertemps Series Final. The handicapper has put the 9-year-old up 6lb for this effort looks a shade harsh, but he should remain competitive in 3m handicap hurdles to the end of the season.
Not Many Left, trained by Jessica Harrington, finished third home in the Pertemps. The 6-year-old was only having his 7th start over hurdles but was only beaten 1 ½ lengths at the line. Between the final two hurdles he was travelling best of all and looked the most likely winner before just being run out of it by a couple of stronger stayers on the day.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned out to be the best of the three-horse’s home in the race. He will probably go novice chasing next year but he remains on a winnable mark over hurdles in the shorter term.
In the Kim Muir Chase, that concluded Day 3 of the festival, the runner-up Kilfilum Cross, who was having only his 4th start over fences, continued his progression over the larger obstacles. He could well be heading to Ayr for the valuable 3m novices’ handicap chase at the Scottish Grand National Meeting.
Friday 15th March
Countister, trained by Nicky Henderson, was having her first start since finishing 5th of 14 to Laurina in the Mares’ Novices Hurdle 365 days earlier. The 7-year-old was only having her 5th start over hurdles when finishing a 1 ½ length 3rd in the County Hurdle. She should improve for this run and the experience of a big field competitive handicap. A flat track like Aintree should suit the mare as should a step up in distance from 2m 1f.
Saturday 16th March
Kempton
The 2m 5f Silver Plate Handicap Hurdle has been won by the likes of Kildisart, Brio Conti & Might Bite in recent seasons was won by the 8-year-old Wicked Willy on Saturday. The one to take out of the race with the future in mind could be the runner-up My Way.
My Way, trained Paul Nicholls, had yet to win on his six previous starts since joining the trainer. However, he had run well defeat, finishing second to subsequent Sandown winner Third Wind before finishing third to One For Rosie at Warwick. He’s on a competitive hurdle mark and can surely break his maiden tag over hurdles based on his effort here. Next season he looks set to go novice chasing.
There you have it plenty for the notebook. Some for big races in the coming weeks whilst other need to be kept in mind for next season.
Part two of this week’s notebook will be with you between 7pm & 8pm on Friday evening and will contain weekend selections, etc.
Cheers
John