Hi all,
My last notebook of the year and indeed the decade.
There was plenty of high-class racing, plenty of poor and even more indifferent racing fare over the Christmas period. However, there were a few eye-catching races both sides of the Irish Sea.
The racing in January isn’t anywhere as good as the previous couple of months albeit there are few decent Saturday handicaps to keep us interested.
Most punters thoughts, if they haven’t already, will be drifting toward the Cheltenham Festival. I know mine do at the start of a new year.
Anyway, enough of all that let’s looks back at the festive action, there’s plenty of it and I haven’t even covered the Grade 1 races.
Thursday December 26th
Kempton
Commanche Red was a tidy winner of the 2m 4 ½ f novices handicap chase and can win again if placed in the right race. However, the two to take out of the race for the future are Simply The Betts and Hold The Note who I tipped up ante post for the race
Simply The Betts – Harry Whittington
Finished nine lengths behind the winner but he did well to get as close as he did at the finish. His jumping wasn’t as fluent as it had been on his two previous starts, continually jumping out to his left, and he was well behind coming to two out. He stayed on well to the line despite slipping on landing at the last. No problem with the step up in trip for the 6-year-old who is clearly better jumping left-handed. He remains progressive and can win more races.
Hold The Note – Mick Channon
On his second start over fences the 5-year-old was tracking the leaders and going nicely when Roll Again fell at the 10th. He was badly hampered by the faller and it was a race ending mishap and he was soon pulled up. He looks to have the ability to win races in this company.
This is a race where the form is worth following. Indeed, if you had backed all the horses running in this race on their next start you would have made £18.98 profit to a £1 level stake. The results for those having their next start within 30-days is 15 winners from 33 runners 45% +44.23 20 placed 61%.
This is one of the hot races in the NH calendar that you need to note!
Wetherby
The Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby is usually a competitive handicap chase and I think this year’s renewal was above average. It’s not quite as hot a race as the previous one but if you had backed the first three home on their next start you would have made a £7.50 profit to a £1 level stake. The profit has come from following those runners who step up to Grade 2 company on their next start – 5 winners from 15 runners 33% +23.50 9 placed 60%
Winner Top Ville Ben put in a career best effort under 11-11 to win by eight lengths. He will be of interest should he step up into Grade 2 company for his next run.
Lake View Lad – Nick Alexander
The 2018 winner of the Rowland Meyrick, off 8lb lower, needs much further these days but this was a welcome return to form for the 9-year-old who was staying on well after the last to finish third. Given he’s 3 wins from 5 runs 4 placed at Newcastle, the 4m Eider Chase could be an ideal race for him especially if he gets his favoured soft or heavy ground.
Friday December 27th
Leopardstown
The Moyglass Flyer was a battling winner off the 2m handicap hurdle on his handicap debut and just his third career start. He’s clearly going the right way and can more races and could stay further on the evidence of this performance.
Golden Jewel – Edward Cawley
The 7-year-old doesn’t win very often just 3 wins from 23 runs under rules, but he came from further back than the two who finished in front of him in finishing third. Given his three previous best RPR’s had come over 2m 3f/2m 4f this was a good effort. A big field really suits as his best four RPR’s have now come in field sizes 17+. A return to further could see him back into the winner’s enclosure again.
Ilikedwayurthinkin – Gavin Cromwell
Much less exposed than Golden Jewel just as eyecatching for the future was Ilikedwayurthinkin’s run in 5th. Beaten 9 lengths by the winner but he wasn’t subjected to hard race. Twice a winner at Galway in the summer, on good ground, he seemed to handle the soft ground well enough here. One of the novices two career wins has come over 2m 5f so he shouldn’t be phased by a return to further than 2m. Given he’s just had the nine career starts there should be a more to come from the 5-year-old. Owned by J P McManus it’s worth assuming that connections have nice target in mind for him.
Any Second Now – Ted Walsh
Daily Punt readers will know that I have put this one up as my Christmas eyecatcher in this week’s column. If you haven’t read it this what I wrote:
There were a fair few eyecatchers over the Christmas period. The one that caught my eye the most ran in an incident packed Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown on Friday.
Any Second Now, winner of last year’s Kim Muir Handicap Chase. The 7-year-old who had been the beaten favourite in the race 12 months ago. The 7-year-old was well backed again this year and was in the process of running a big race when bought down four out. He stays 3m 2 ½ f as he showed at Cheltenham last season so he could well be aimed at something like the Irish Grand National.
Saturday December 28th
Leopardstown
Pertemps Series qualifiers need to come with a wealth warning and only the final should be a betting race for punters unless you really strongly fancy one. That didn’t stop me playing in the Leopardstown qualifier on Saturday. As usually my two selections failed to deliver.
Last year’s Pertemps Final winner Sire De Berlais was beaten 13 lengths into 9th and he still needs to qualify for the final itself. He will drop a 1lb or two for this effort but must finish in the first 6th in the next qualifier to be able to run at Cheltenham.
The Storyteller like Sire De Berlais trained by Gordon Elliott was given a peach of ride by Davy Russell to finish 6th and qualify for Cheltenham. The 8-year-old has only had the nine starts over hurdles, winning three of them and is 16lb lower than over fences. He looks an ideal type for the final and not surprisingly was backed after this effort.
Tout Est Permis finished two places in front of The Storyteller and now also qualified for the series final. A high-class staying chaser he’s run well on both his last two starts since returning to hurdles. He had been nudged up 5lb for his second placed effort at Navan last time. He’s got an even lower hurdle mark to exploit than The Storyteller being rated 29lb lower than he is over fences. He will probably be nudged up 1lb or two for this effort, but no horse rated under 134 has managed to get in to the final in the past 5-year. The 6-year-old probably needs to win a handicap hurdle to guarantee he gets to Cheltenham. If he does, he will be major contender.
There was another interesting handicap hurdle on the card.
Dalton Highway broke his maiden tag over hurdles at the 5th attempt when winning the 2m 4 ½ handicap hurdle. A useful staying handicapper on the level there should be more to come from the Dermot Weld trained 6-year-old in the sphere.
Goodbye Someday – John Kiely
The 5-year-old who had shaped like a future winner when 2nd of 13 on his handicap hurdle debut over 2m at Cork earlier in the month. Well backed before the off into 6/1 he was well fancied on his step up in distance. He was still very much in contention, just behind the leader when hampered and carried out four from home. It was to early to say where he would have finished but given the market support, he received it suggests connections think they have a well handicapped horse on their hands.
Newbury
On To Victory – Alan King
A useful stayer on the flat and listed placed over 1m6f. The 5-year-old had been well fancied to make a winning hurdle at Haydock early in the month. He was still bang there when stumbling after the last and unseating his rider. Well backed again he ran well to finish 3rd of 17 behind Mr Coffey. The winner is highly regarded by Nicky Henderson so the form could turn out to be very useful. Given On To Victory stays well on the flat he will probably improve for step up in trip over hurdles. Should win races in the sphere on the evidence of this performance.
The Mandarin Handicap Chase may not be the race it was, but this year’s renewal produced an impressive winner in the Colin Tizzard trained Copperhead. The 5-year-old up 9lb for winning at Wincanton. The rise in the ratings was no problem for this improving staying chaser. He will go up in the weights again for this win but could easily develop into an RSA Novices Chase contender or even more, so a National Hunt Chase type, given his novice status.
Morning Vicar – Nicky Henderson
Nicky Henderson saddled three runners in the novices’ handicap chase that concluded the Newbury card. He won the race with Burbank but the shortest priced of his three Morning Vicar could be the win to take out of the race. Runner-up in a handicap hurdle at Kempton on his seasonal reappearance. He was sent off 7/2 on his chase debut. The 6-year-old is bred to make a chaser and although he didn’t jump brilliantly in the early part of the race he got better as the race went on and was still travelling nicely when taking a heavy fall four out. If his confidence isn’t too badly damaged after this fall, he can win races off his handicap mark.
Sunday December 29th
Leopardstown
Foxy Jacks – ‘Mouse’ Morris
The 5-year-old twice a runner-up in maiden hurdle company last season. He hadn’t run particularly well on his first two start of this season. However, he bounced back to form when finish 4th of 11 behind Peaches And Cream. Beaten 3 ¼ lengths at the line he did best of those held up on his handicap hurdle debut. He should stay a bit further than 2m 4 ½ f but he needs to tidy up his jumping which remains novicey if he’s to exploit what looks a winning mark.
My latest ante post article which contains a few Cheltenham Festival bets will be posted by this time tomorrow.
Cheers
John