Hi all,
An intriguing Saturday with good cards at Haydock & Ascot. The going is described as heavy at both venues to it will be make for gruelling conditions for both horses and jockeys.
The feature race at Haydock is the Grade 2 Peter Marsh Chase at 2:40 and is the highlight of a seven-race card at Lancashire track. At Ascot it’s Grade 1 action with the latest running of the Clarence House Chase.
Five have stood their ground for the Clarence House with Defi Du Seuil & Un De Sceaux. First & second in the Tingle Creek Chase renewing rivalry.
Fingers crossed my Champion Chase tip Defi De Seuil can win to enhance his claims for the Cheltenham Festival. He heads the ante post betting for the race just ahead of his old rival. Note of caution for favourite backers this will be his first run on heavy ground. Whilst we do know Un De Sceaux, trained by Willie Mullins, handles the going; 2 wins from 3 runs on heavy and he’s 2 wins from 2 runs at Ascot and has won this race three times (once when run at Cheltenham).
I don’t think there will be much between the pair in the betting come post time indeed you get make a case that Mullins horse should be favourite.
Let’s begin Saturday’s betting preview at Haydock.
Haydock
2:40 – Peter Marsh Handicap Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) – 3m ½ f
Ten have been declared for this valuable handicap chase worth £42,713 to the winner although two runners Red Indian & Flying Angel are also declared for the 3:00 at Ascot.
Vintage Clouds ticks the key trend’s boxes I highlighted in my Monday Daily Punt column and his form figures at the course are 12222F3213. The only time he’s been out of the places was when falling three out in this race in 2017. Finished a well beaten third here last time and has yet to win on heavy – 0 wins from 8 runs but handles it. Dropped back down to his last winning mark. Given his course record he can never be ruled out and he makes plenty of each way appeal for trainer Sue Smith who has won this race twice since 2016.
Midnight Tune is another who ticks the trends boxes. The mare has been well placed to win her last two starts over 3m & 2m 1 ½ f. Well suited to heavy ground 3 wins from 4 runs. The mare might be 2lb out of the handicap here, but the return today’s trip will be in her favour and she’s on a competitive mark off 136.
Champers On Ice, might be a 10-year-old but he’s only had four starts over fences and remains unexposed over the larger obstacles. A winner twice over hurdles in the autumn this will be his first start over fences over fences since pulling up in the 4m National Hunt Chase at the 2017 Cheltenham Festival. Effective in the mud he’s an intriguing contender for David Pipe who won this race in 2010.
Two contenders who fail the 2+ runs in last 90-days trend are: Red Indian & Geronimo.
Geronimo has the profile of an improving handicap chaser looking at his RPR’s. Progressive over fences last season, you forgive his run when pulling up in the Scottish Grand National (12/1) was still in contention when making a bad mistake six out. The 9-year-old put in a career best when winning at Newcastle, last month, over a trip that would be short of his best. Up 5lb in a better race but’s open to further progress over today distance. Trainer Sandy Thomson’s horses are in winning form and tend to go under the radar in races like this. One for the betting shortlist.
Red Indian is another intriguing runner. The 8-year-old makes his seasonal return today from a 287-day absence. That shouldn’t put you off as all his three career wins have come fresh and form figures after 121+ day layoff are an impressive 13131. He relishes the mud; all three wins have come on soft and heavy going with form figures 121 on heavy. Just his second start in a handicap chase and off 10-11 looks of a nice weight with Ben Jones taking off a further 5lb. He looks too big a price here.
Definitely Red isn’t without a chance even under top weight of 11-10. The class horse of the race but he’s remains vulnerable to any progressive rivals.
Verdict: Vintage Clouds has a solid each way each way chance but I’m finding it hard to split Midnight Tune, back in handicap company today, and Red Indian & Geronimo.
1pt win – Red Indian – 10/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Midnight Tune – 13/2 @ Bet365
1pt win – Geronimo – 13/2 @ Bet365
3:15 – The New One Unibet Hurdle (Grade 2) – 1m 7 ½ f.
Just four runners stand their ground for this Champion Hurdle trial. The ante post favourite is the Nicky Henderson trained Pentland Hills but there must be significant doubts as to whether last years Triumph Hurdle winner will be at his best today on the forecast heavy ground.
At the prices it could pay to go with the Joseph O’Brien trained Darasso. The 7-year-old’s form when trained in France reads well and includes a seven-length win over the smart Janika back in November 2017. Comes into the race seeking the hat trick after win in Grade 3 & Grade 2 company when last seen in action in February/March.
Was due to make his seasonal; reappearance in the 2m Grade 1 at Leopardstown at Christmas but taken out as ground quickened up. His last two wins were over 2m and he relishes the mud, winning twice on heavy ground in France.
He may turn out to be better over 2m 4f and could get out speeded by todays rivals, but Ruby Walsh did put him up at 33/1 for this year’s Champion Hurdle. The 33/1 non-runner no bet is still available with Bet365 for the Champion Hurdle. If he was to win today, he would be a single figure price for Cheltenham and if he loses, he won’t run so you get your money back. That could be the way to go betting wise today.
1pt each way – Darasso 25/1 @ Bet365 for Champion Hurdle (NRNB)
Ascot
There are two handicaps worth looking at on the Ascot card.
2:25 – Matchbook Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) – 2m 3 ½ f
Sadly, the field for this valuable handicap hurdle has cut up and just eight are now set to meet the starter.
The Paul Nicholls trained Pic D’Orhy head the ante post betting. The 5-year-old had smart form in the mud when trained in France. Down the field on his sole run in Britain in last season’s Triumph Hurdle (12/1). He travelled strongly throughout the race and was still in with every chance when hitting two out. That mistake and being a shade short of race fitness, it was the gelding first run since November, ended any chance and he faded into 10th up the hill.
A faller on his sole start this season in a Grade 1 Auteuil in November. Now rated 146 over hurdles he still retains the scope to become a high-class hurdler.
Bold Plan showed a nice change of gear to win at Haydock 56-days ago. That win came on good to soft and he’s 10lb higher today. The 6-year-old remains progressive and he did win on soft at Taunton last February and finished runner-up on heavy at Uttoxeter.
Ballymoy, trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, won last years race off 2lb lower. Runner-up on all three starts over fences in the autumn he reverts to hurdles today and can’t be dismissed easily given he ticks the all-important going, course & distance boxes.
Verdict: Last years winner Ballymoy has to be respected reverting back to hurdling. Bold Plan is progressive but there’s a good chance Pic D’Orhy is on a winning mark for his handicap debut.
1pt win – Pic D’Orhy – 10/3 – Gen
3:00 – Bet365 Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 5f
The field size has held up here with eleven handicap chasers set to go post for this valuable prize. More the three quarters of the field have winning form on heavy ground which doesn’t make shortlisting strong contenders easy. Doesn’t look the strongest of race for the grade.
Espoir De Guye was an impressive winner here last month over two furlongs shorter, the handicapper has had his say putting the 6-year-old up 14lb for that success. Still he’s a young chaser very much on the upgrade who is well suited to heavy ground. Looks a worthy favourite for Venetia Williams who won the race in 2016.
Happy Diva, a previous C&D winner was third to Cyrname in this 12 months ago. The mare has since gone to win the BetVictor Handicap Chase at Cheltenham back in November and was just touched off by Lady Buttons in a mare’s listed race at Doncaster 20-days ago. Up 6lb since Cheltenham but she remains in form and trainer Kerry Lee is among the winners in the past 7-days.
Red Indian, who I mentioned for the Peter Marsh Chase would be a contender given his record fresh but is more likely to head to Haydock which is preferred race.
Domaine De L’Isle was an impressive winner at Newcastle last time. The 7-year-old is progressive, but this is a much tougher assignment, dropped back to 2m 5f. He will do well to confirm form with runner-up Sam’s Adventure who he meets on 8lb worse terms for 5 ½ lengths and that’s not considering Jack Tudor taking another 7lb off Sam’s Adventure. The latter also relishes the mud and his form figures on heavy are 121312. The 8-year-old may lack the class needed to win what looks a hot renewal but given his form on heavy and light weight he can’t be ruled out.
The same could be said about another mud lover Kayf Adventure. The 9-year-old is 3 wins from 7 runs 5 placed on heavy going. Made a promising reappearance at Bangor but didn’t seem to enjoy the National fences when pulling up in the Grand Sefton. Ran better at Chepstow last month and will appreciate the return to 2m 5f. Each way claims if at his best.
Allysson Monterg is yet another runner who goes well on heavy going -2 wins from 5 runs 4 placed – the 10-year-old is having his first start since finishing 4th to Frodon in the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase at the Cheltenham Trial’s Meeting 357-days ago. The first time cheekpieces (retained today) seemed to suit him that day and he’s just 1lb above his last winning mark. Fitness has to be taken on trust given his long absence, but he’s won off a 456-day lay off previously. Might be better over 3m but the testing ground will bring his stamina into play. First run since wind surgery and his first run at Ascot but worth noting his form figures going right-handed are 2111 (0 from 9 the other way). An intriguing contender who looks on a competitive handicap mark, if he’s retained his ability.
Verdict: Plenty in with a chance. Espoir De Guye so impressive here last time must be high on the shortlist. Both Kayf Adventure & Sams Adventure must be respected and Allysson Monterg looks one to be interested in, if ready to go after his long layoff.
1pt win – Allysson Monterg – 15/2 @ Bet365
1pt win – Espoir De Guye – 7/2 @ Bet365
Cheers
John