Hi all,
Well the ‘less is more’ approach which has served us well of late didn’t come off yesterday. Melburnian got the each-way money when runner-up at Newmarket. However, two of the four races, that I didn’t tip in provided winners in Snow Falcon and Pendleton.
Despite yesterday’s results, going forward the less is more approach remains the way to go.
Well It’s Arc Day at Longchamp on Sunday. The world biggest middle-distance race is of course the highlight but there’s also good supporting card of five Group 1 races.
Enable bids to make history by winning the Arc for the third successive year. Can she be beaten? Of course, she can. Will she be beaten? I hope not. Horse racing needs her to win, to enable, pardon the pun, the sport to go from the back page to the front page.
Longchamp
1:50 – Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere Sponsorise Par Manateq (Group 1) – 1m
Victor Ludorum comes into the race looking for the hat trick after wins over C&D and latterly at Chantilly. He’s very much an improver and if he handles the soft ground, could be hard to beat. But he’s priced up on reputation and visual impression of his two wins.
Ecrivain has better form having than the favourite having won at Deauville and a Group 3 over C&D 28-days ago. He’s capable of better and given he’s by Lope De Vega he shouldn’t have any problem with soft ground.
Aidan O’Brien won this race in 2017 and he saddles the progressive Armory. The son of Galileo was not match for Pinatubo in the National Stakes, but he’s bred to appreciate 1m + and the one to beat on form.
1pt win – Armory – 9/2 – Gen
3:05 – Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) – 1m 4f
I just hope Enable can make history. However, she has some tough opponents to overcome. Japan, winner of the Group 1 International Stakes at York can win this. The step up to 1m 4f will be in his favour but is he a better horse on quicker ground. Sottsass is the big hope of the home team. The colt won the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) and returned to action with a facile win in the Prix Niel over C&D 21-days ago. Has a good chance but will need a career best to win! Magical chased home Enable in the Yorkshire Oaks. She’s since gone onto win the Irish Champion Stakes. The filly was well down the field in last year’s race when she was ridden to get the trip. I expect her to get closer this time around. For those looking for one each way then Magical looks the one.
4:30 – Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) – 5f
Battaash is odds on to win and on form you can see why. He was only 4th in this last year to Mabs Cross although won the race in 2017 when it was run at Chantilly.
Mabs Cross will enjoy the soft ground which means she can get closer to Battaash than she did in the Nunthorpe at York. She may need 6f these days, but I think she can win this again. Especially given there should be a strong pace to chase.
Gold Vibe put in a career best when beaten a head by Mabs Cross in this race 12 months ago. He was 66/1 last year and is a big price again. If he can reproduce last year’s run, then he’s got each way claims again.
1pt win – Mabs Cross – 10/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill
5:05 – Qatar Prix de la Foret (Group 1) – 7f
One Master is a 7f specialist, she won this race 12 months ago at an unfancied 33/1. Just the four starts this season and has likely had this race as a target all season. Was a 1 ¾ length 5th of 15 in the Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville on her last start. The step back to 7f is in her favour. Last year’s win came on good ground, but she did win on soft as a 3-year-old and shouldn’t be beaten by the going.
Wasmya is an interesting runner at bigger odds. The 3-year-old takes a big step up in class here, having won a Listed race at Badan 35-days ago. She’s just had the four career starts winning three of them. Seven furlongs is her trip 2 from 2 over the distance and has won on heavy ground. A filly going the right way who could get into the money if she hasn’t reached her class ceiling.
0.5pts each way – Wasmya – 14/1 @ Bet365 or 12/1 – Gen
Besides Longchamp there’s a decent looking handicap chase at Kelso.
Kelso
3:20 – A field of seven go to post for this 2m 1f Class 2 handicap chase. Forest Bihan seems suited to smaller fields. He won this race in 2017, off 4lb higher, so needs respecting of this mark but would be of more interest on better ground. Simply Ned won this in 2014 & 2015. Granted he was shade below par in this race 12 months ago but despite being an 11-year-old looked better than ever last season winning a Grade 1 at Leopardstown on his last start back in December. Can never be ruled out in this race. Nuts Well won this race 12 months ago, off 2lb lower, and looks to have a good chance of back to back wins. Returns from a 164-day absence but won last year off an even longer layoff. The possibility of the ground easing significantly won’t be a problem and if he can cut out the jumping errors, is the one to beat.
1pt win – Nuts Well – 9/2 @ Paddy Power or 4/1 – Gen
Cheers
John