Hi all,
A tough day for punters on Saturday. Who Dares Wins plugged on into 7th in the Cesarewitch to keep losses to a minimum.
Two top handicaps today, both over the Irish Sea. At the Curragh it’s the Irish Cesarewitch and at Limerick it’s the Munster National.
Let’s begin Sunday’s betting preview at the Curragh.
Curragh
4:25 – Tote Irish Cesarewitch (Premier Handicap) – 2m
A field of 18 are declared to go to post for this year’s race on going being described as yielding to soft.
Nessun Dorma caught the eye when a running on 5th of 17 at Leopardstown on his seasonal reappearance 29-days ago. He was 4th in this race last year, when it was run at Navan, and should well again if he stays 2m on what is likely to be testing ground.
Looking at the race trends: Nine of the last ten winners of this race shared the following three traits:
Age: 3yo to 5yo
Best In Three Runs: 1st or 2nd
Distance Move: Same or up 6f
There are five qualifiers: Saglawy, Rock De Baune, Royal Aide, Red Gerry & Shamad.
Saglawy like Nessun Dorma, trained by Willie Mullins, returned from 258-day break when winning over 1m 6f at Listowel 31-days ago. A mark of 97 looks workable and the 5-year-old looks a worthy favourite given he handles ease in the ground
Rock De Baune also won at Listowel over 1m 6f, 31-days ago. The 5-year-old is up 8lb for that success but remains on a workable mark. Strong at the finish at Listowel and likes soft ground. Has to be high on the shortlist.
Royal Aide comes into the race looking for the hat trick after wins at Killarney & Bellewstown. The 3-year-old is going the right way, should improve further for the step up in distance from 1m 4f and Killarney win came on soft.
Red Gerry remains on an upward curve after his 2nd of 10 at Listowel 34-days ago. The 3-year-old is another who shapes like he can improve for a step up in trip although on pedigree stamina for a strongly run 2 miles on soft ground is a doubt.
Shamad has been well placed to win his last three races over 1m 4f/1m 5f. All three wins have come on good ground. Up 5lb and this will be a much different test today.
Verdict: We may not have seen the best of Saglawy or Rock De Baune yet and they will do for me.
1pt win – Saglawy – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Rock De Baune – 15/2 @ Bet365
3:50 – A field of 14 have been declared for this 6f handicap. There are several well handicapped horses who could bounce back to form on soft ground in what looks a tricky race. The four I like most are:
Mary Salome was 5th of 24 over C&D three starts back and looked the sort for a handicap like this. The 3-year-old has disappointed on two subsequent starts but is 2lb lower now. Bo issues with soft ground and a reproduction of her C&D 5th would see her go close.
Scorching Heat, won the Goodwood Stewards Cup consolation race for previous trainer Andrew balding in 2017, off 3lb higher. The 5-year-old was two places and ½ length behind Mary Salome in that Curragh race and is 2lb better off today. Not so good on his last two starts but back to 6f can go close if all the cards fall right.
The Brogie Man shaped like he can win a handicap like this, on soft ground, when 5th of 14 over C&D back in August, off 6lb higher Not so good on his next two starts but the 4-year-old bounced back to form when 3rd of 15 at Cork 12-days ago. Drops back a furlong here but the more testing the ground the more his stamina will come into play.
Fridtjof Nansen win a big field handicap over ½ f further back in August and was unlucky not follow up over C&D on his next start when finishing one place ahead of Mary Salome. Has remaind in good form 2nd of 14 at Dundalk before seriously unlucky in the run when 9th of 20 here over 5f 15-days ago. Looked to be travelling well coming to the final two furlongs but was caught behind horses and didn’t get a clear run. Not knocked about in the final half furlong and ran better than his final position suggests.
Verdict: My tentative picks are The Brogie Man and Fridtjof Nansen.
1pt win – The Brogie Man – 11/1 @ Ladbrokes & William Hill
1pt win – Fridtjof Nansen – 8/1 @ Coral
Limerick
4:35 – JT McNamara Ladbrokes Munster National Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 3m
Sixteen have been declared for this historic handicap chase which is likely to be run on soft to heavy ground.
Looking at the race 10-year trends. All ten winners shared the following:
Age: 6yo to 8yo
Best In Three Runs: 1st or 2nd
Highest Class Run: Grade 1 or Grade 2
Maximum Distance Won: 2m 4f to 3m 1f
There are just two qualifiers if we use the above trends:
Internal Transfer
Movewiththetimes
Internal Transfer put in a career best when 4th of 18 in the Kerry National. The return to Limerick will be in the 8-year-old’s favour – 3 wins from 3 runs here – and he’s won on heavy in the past. This is just his 4th start over fences and looks capable of better still in the sphere. Will probably be held onto a big longer today and has a big chance if he truly stays 3m on what is sure to be a stamina sapping 3m.
Movewiththetimes like Internal Transfer has slight stamina doubts on the going. Had good hurdle form when trained by Paul Nicholls, finishing runner-up in the 2017 Betfair Handicap Hurdle at Newbury. Has yet to really click over fences just 1 win from 10 runs. That sole win came for present trainer when winning a Killarney beginners’ chase two starts back. Sent off the 5/2 favourite for the Kerry National, finished well down the field shaping like a mon-stayer. On a recovery mission here and has the ability to win a race like this. Will he get home over 3m on heavy ground?
Verdict: It may seem strange to go for two horses who have stamina doubts, but I will stick with the trends here.
2pts win – Internal Transfer – 7/2 @ Bet365
1pt win – Movewiththetimes – 10/1 @ Coral
Good luck I think it will be needed today.
Cheers
John