Hi all,
Well it was cracking day’s racing at Leopardstown but more gruelling for runners at Sandown.
Éclair De Beaufeu 1st (8/1 BOG) & Cobbler’s Way 2nd (14/1) gave us a break-even day. It could have been a bit better, but it could have been a lot worse on a competitive day’s sport.
There’s good racing at Musselburgh but I’m concentrating on day two of the Dublin Racing Festival. I appreciate I spent too long on my Leopardstown write ups yesterday, but I enjoyed writing them and I hope you enjoyed reading them and got plenty from them.
I will try to make it shorter today. Like yesterday you can find my selections at the end.
Leopardstown
A bumper eight race card at the Dublin Racing Festival and all the action gets underway at 12:55 with a 2m 2f mares handicap hurdle. The feature race of a great card is the Irish Gold Cup at 3:30.
12:55 – Well, just 27 runners in the opening race. Four that take my eye most are:
Jeremys Flame – Has improved with each of her five starts over hurdles but just found Fiddlerontheroof to strong in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown too strong last time. A classy novice hurdler who makes her handicap debut and despite her big weight looks competitively weighted.
Ena Baie – British raider from the Harry Fry stable. Both the 6-year-old’s last two starts have been in Ireland. Fourth of 20 at Galway back in August she improved further to finish 3rd of 25 here over Christmas. Up 3lb for her last effort and up 2f in distance but she was strong at the finish last time so should stay the extra yardage of today’s race. Effective in big fields and plenty to like about her chance.
Willie Mullins who seems to dominate the mare’s division in Ireland has just the eight runners. The best of his could be Concertista. The 6-year-old ran a tremendous race to finish 2nd of 22, beaten just a short head, in the Dawn Run Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, finishing well ahead of leading Champion Hurdle fancy Epatante. Proved disappointing on her seasonal return when well beaten odds on favourite at Fairyhouse but fared slightly better when 3rd in maiden hurdle on Boxing Day. Maybe she hasn’t progressed, or the ground has been a shade too soft for her this season. If it’s the latter she’s got a good chance with ground drying out on Saturday.
Paul Nolan saddled a winner here yesterday and jockey Kevin Brouder rode a winner. The pair combine today with lightly raced Mrs Milner. The mare won on her second start over hurdles at Thurles back in November before finishing 7th in the same race as Ena Baie here over Christmas.Has 9 lengths to find with that one today but her jockey takes off a useful 5lb and she should be suited by today’s extra distance. Appealing each way claims.
1:25 – The first of today’s four Grade 1’s races, this one for the juvenile hurdlers. Aspire Tower is long odds on here and strong in the market for next months Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. The 4-year-old has won both his starts since going hurdling and was notably impressive when winning over C&D 38-days ago.
One who could get close to the favourite is Never Do Nothing a who made all to win at Musselburgh on his hurdle debut 32-days ago. An expensive purchase from the Andrew Balding stable at 135,000gns in the autumn. He finished ahead of the favourite at the Shergar Cup and was rated 11lb higher on the level. The better the ground the better his chance so overnight watering might not be a positive for his chance.
1:55 – A Grade 1 novices’ hurdle over 2m. Willie Mullins has won this race six times since 2013 and he saddles three of today’s seven runners. It may pay to take a chance with the bigger priced of his trio. Blue Sari finished runner-up to Envoi Allen in last season Cheltenham Champion Bumper and made a winning, if workmanlike, debut over hurdles at Punchestown in November. Was a tailed of last of 4 in a Grade 1 novices hurdle here at Christmas. That surely wasn’t his true running and the 5-year-old can bounce back here and show he remains an exciting prospect for next months Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
2:30 – A 3m handicap hurdle with €59,000 on offer to the winner it’s attracted a field of 28 runners.
This should be a 10/1 the field. The bookies favourite at 6/1 is one of the race reserves Cabaret Queen who returns to the smaller obstacles after falling in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase here over Christmas. She has a much lower hurdle mark to exploit if she gets in but at the prices, I can let her win.
Next in the ante post betting is the Gordon Elliott trained Column of Fire. The 6-year-old put in a career best at Racing Post Ratings when beating 17 rivals at Punchestown 18-days ago. Shapes like he will get 3m but the going was heavy at Punchestown and it will likely be quicker ground here. He looks on a competitive mark for his handicap debut and should go well.
Tout Est Permis a high-class staying chaser who had done well on his last two runs since returning to the smaller obstacles. Last time out he finished 4th of 25 behind one of today’s rival Treacysenniscorthy in a Pertemps Series Qualifier over C&D. He’s rated 26lb lower than over fences and gets 7lb from that one today for a four-length beating.
Treacysenniscorthy remains a contender despite his 9lb rise in the weights. He’s won his last three starts and will make a bold bid for the four timer, despite his big rise in the weights.
Silver Sheen improved to win Pertemps Series Qualifier at Warwick last month to bring up the hat trick. There was plenty to like about how he rallied, after stumbling at the last to win by a neck. He’s been raised 3lb for that win but remains on a competitive mark with his trainer being better from now.
Owner J P McManus has a strong hand in the race and three of his: Gardens Of Babylon, Gran Geste & Morosini can be considered likely winners.
Morosini, like Silver Sheen trained by Jessica Harrington, has progressed with each of his last three start over hurdles since stepping up to 2m 4f. Put in a career best when winning at Cork last month. Up 9lb and steps up to 3m now which asks another question of the 5-year-old but he’s going the right way and a claimer takes off a useful 7lb.
Gran Geste is another capable of a big run here. The 7-year-old improved for the return to 2m 6f when winning a Galway handicap hurdle in October. Maintained that improvement when 3rd to the Jam Man at Navan, one place behind Tout Est Permis, over 3m ½ f. He was strong at the finish that day and can go well here.
Gardens Of Babylon, third behind Pentland Hills in last year’s Triumph Hurdle before going on to beat Notebook over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival. Was down the field when well fancied (8/1) for the Galway Hurdle. Has finished runner-up in two small field Grade 3 hurdles on his last two starts. The 5-year-old takes a big step up in distance today but gives the impression he might stay especially if the ground isn’t too soft.
3:00 – The 2m 5f Grade 1 Flogas Novices Chase. It’s not a race I have bothered to look but surely Faugheen wins this if he stands up.
3:30 – The Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup. Delta Work, Presenting Percy & Kemboy were first, fourth and fifth respectively in the Grade 1 Savills Chase over Christmas. It hard to look beyond those three for the winner of this although Troytown Handicap Chase winner Chris’s Dream can’t be totally dismissed given he impressed when winning last time and is open to further improvement which he does need to find. Connections will hope the track gets plenty of water overnight.
Connections of both Kemboy and Presenting Percy will hope they can reverse form with Delta Work. The former was making his seasonal return and looked in need of the run. Three mile around here is his optimum. Presenting Percy is getting better with each race with the aim to peak at Cheltenham. He should be there or thereabouts but 3m is probably short enough for him.
An intriguing race but maybe one to watch rather than have a bet in
4:00 – A field of 24 handicap chasers are to meet the starter with €88,500 on offer to the winner. My shortlist includes: At The Acorn, Robin Des Foret, Dalles Des Pictons, Any Second Now, Articulum and the likes of Blazer, The Last Goodbye & Kitten Rock.
At The Acorn, heads the market after a good runs here over Christmas and then when winning a novice chase at Fairyhouse over 2m 5 ½ f 22-days ago. The 6-year-old is capable of more improvement despite a 15lb rise in the weights. Could he be the horse to give Tony Martin a big race win?
Robin Des Foret returned to action with a one length, 3rd behind Warthog in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup. Was still travelling well coming two out when stepped up to 3m in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase over Christmas but his stamina ran out at the last and he faded to finish 6th The drop back in trip will be in his in favour and the 10-year-old should give it a good go again.
Dallas Des Pictons a very useful handicap hurdler who the 3m handicap hurdle at this meeting 12 months ago before improving further to finish runner-up in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham. Won a beginners’ chase at Gowran Park on his debut over fences before a couple of decent, albeit well beaten efforts in Grade 3 company. Not hard to think he could be well handicapped off a mark of 135 but does need to jump better than he did last time behind Carefully Selected at Punchestown.
Any Second Now, won the 3m 2f Kim Muir Handicap at Cheltenham and was still very much in contention when hampered and unseating his rider four out in the Paddy Power. The drop back to 2m 5f may not be what he wants but he still needs respecting given trainer Ted Walsh has won this race twice since 2012.
Articulum has failed to complete on his last two chase starts which is a concern in a race as competitive as this but he’s travelled well enough in both races to think he’s a nicely handicapped horse. In the mix with a clear round of jumping.
Blazer, often gives off the impression he could win a race like this, hasn’t won since 2017, but tends to fail to deliver. Should be sharper for his recent return to action at Punchestown 22-days ago and the step back up in trip makes him interesting again.
The Last Goodbye won this race in 2018 off 2lb lower but not so good since. Ran respectably two starts back but wasn’t so good when last seen in action 105-days ago.
Mr Diablo won over C&D back in March 2017 off 1lb lower. More hit than miss since that success although was runner-up in the Troytown in November 2018. Not totally ruled out here but vulnerable to better handicapped horses.
Kitten Rock is possibly one of the best handicapped horses in the race but it’s hard to stay how much ability the 10-year-old still retains. A Grade 2 winning hurdler early in his career. He’s only had the five starts over fences, winning once, and was in contention when falling three out in a valuable Foxrock Handicap Chase back in December 2016. He’s only had three starts since that run but is now 11lb lower. Returned from a 517-day absence with a down the field effort over hurdles 33-days ago. Gets the first time cheekpieces today and can’t totally be ruled out.
4:35 – A Grade 2 mares bumper concludes the Dublin Racing Festival. Bigbadandbeautiful is the odds-on favourite after winning her last two starts. Those wins mean she must give weight all round to her rivals, but she remains the one they have to beat.
For those looking for one at bigger odds, it may pay to go with Politesse, a half-sister to Don Poli. The 6-year-old has only run once when 3rd of 17 behind geldings Longhouse Poet & Monkfish in a Punchestown Festival bumper. She’s back against her own sex here and is open to further progress. Her trainer Lorna Fowler had a bumper winner at Down Royal on Thursday.
Leopardstown Selections:
12:55:
1pt win – Ena Baie – 10/1 – Gen
1pt win – Jeremys Flame – 7/1 @ Coral
0.5pts each way – Mrs Milner – 16/1 @ Bet365 (Paying 5 places ¼ odds)
1:55:
1pt win – Blue Sari – 13/2 @ William Hill
2:30:
1pt win – Morosini – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Silver Sheen – – 9/1 @ Bet365
4:00:
1pt win – At The Acorn – 5/1 – Gen
1pt win – Robin Des Foret – 8/1 @ Paddy Power
0.5pts each way – Articulum – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John