Hi all,
Two exciting days racing. It’s Arc Weekend at Longchamp which culminates tomorrow with the world’s best middle-distance race the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
Over this side of the Channel it’s the Group1 Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket.
Ascot hosts a competitive day’s racing with the betting highlight being the bet365 Challenge Cup Handicap over 7f.
It’s Redcar’s most valuable days racing of the season with big race being the Two-Year-Old Trophy with £99,243 on offer to the winner.
Over the Irish Sea, Gowran Park plays host to a good jump’s cards with the highlights being a Grade 2 Chase over 2m 4f and a big field handicap hurdle over 3m.
Let’s begin at Newmarket where the going is described as soft on Friday lunchtime.
Newmarket
3:25 – Kingdom Of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m
Nine fillies & mares have been declared for this year’s renewal. An ability to act on the rain softened ground will be important which is why I’m taking an each-way chance on I Can Fly. The 4-year-old tends to be more the bridesmaid rather than the bride but two of her three best RPR’s have come on soft ground, including when beaten just a neck by Roaring Lion in the Group Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Champions Day last October. Her best form in 2019 came when 3rd of 8 behind Too Darn Hot and stablemate Circus Maximus in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood. Granted she was well behind Iridessa & Hermosa in the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown but on soft ground she should be much closer to that pair this time. My initial fancy was Lavender’s Blue, but she might be better on a sounder surface than likely here. You can’t rule out last years winner Laurens although she doesn’t come into this year’s race in the same form as 12 months ago.
1pt each way – I Can Fly – 14/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
4:35 – British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f
I have to say I thought Ahorsewithnoname had a good chance here, but she’s now been declared a non-runner.
Irish raider Melburnian won on soft ground when trained in France but has yet to win since moving to Tony Martin earlier this year. That said, she’s on a competitive mark based on her best form in Ireland and it looked like her turn may not be far away when 4th of 14 at Listowel on soft going 22-days ago. Strelka, trained by Ralph Beckett, is a half sister to Derby/Arc winner Workforce. The daughter of Kingman showed a nice turn of foot to win a Kempton novice 24-days ago and makes her handicap debut of a workable mark and given this will only be her fourth career starts she’s open to further improvement. Soft ground is an unknown, but pedigree does offer some hope she can handle it.
1pt each way – Melburnian – 7/1 – Gen
Ascot
3:10 – bet365 Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) -7f
A field of 18 have been declared for this year’s race. Now I maybe reading this handicap all wrong and to be fair I have plenty of times this flat season, but I only see four or five strong contenders on the prevailing soft ground.
John Gosden won last weeks Cambridgeshire Handicap with an unexposed 3-year-old. He saddles a similar type in Casanova. A winner at Sandown on his handicap debut 22-days ago. He’s up 6lb for that win but given his lightly raced profile could be capable of defying it. Soft ground is an unknown but he’s by Frankel whose progeny seem to go well enough with dig in the ground and the drop back from a mile should be negated by the soft ground.
Raising Sand has his optimum conditions soft ground and 7f. He won this race 12 months ago but off 12lb lower. Ripp Orf was runner-up last year but gets a 13lb turnaround in the weights. He’s another who can’t be ruled out back at his favourite venue. Kynren never seems to win but will surely be in the money again. Soft ground and a stiff 7f in a big field are his optimum conditions. I might regret leaving him out of my bets here.
I won’t be deserting Battered, who I tipped up last week for the 7f handicap that concluded the Cambridgeshire Meeting last Saturday. The 5-year-old had made a promising return to action when 5th of 8 at Doncaster 15-days previously. Unfortunately, the anticipated rain didn’t materialise last week, but he still ran an eyecatching race to finish 4th of 12, beaten just a length. The gelding is 2-2 on soft ground, form figures with soft in the going description being 1512. He looks set for a good run here.
Now three races on the Ascot card that I haven’t got official selections in but if you fancy any of these runners, I won’t you off.
1pt win – Battered – 8/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Casanova – 9/1 @ Paddy Power or 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:00 – UK Hi-Fi Show Live Rous Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 6f
Michael Dods saddles the inform and likely favourite Dakota Gold & last year’s winner Intense Romance. The latter always needs respecting on soft or heavy ground, but she doesn’t come into the race in the same form as 12 months ago. If she was to bounce back to form, she would be interesting.
2:25 – Property Raceday Targets £3M Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 4f
Like the previous race it’s one of those contests where the ground has come for a horse but there are doubts about his general wellbeing. The horse is Wells Farhh Go. The 4-year-old looked set for a good season when winning a 1m 4f Listed race at Newmarket on his seasonal reappearance back in June. Since then he run away with his jockey in the Goodwood Cup and was never sighted in the Ebor Handicap on his last start. The drop back to 1m 4f and soft ground will be in his favour. But which colt will we see today? If he runs to his Newmarket form, he will go close but if he races like he did at Goodwood he will finish nearer last than first.
4:50 – McGee Group Handicap (Class 3) – 5f
Pendleton did best of those who came down the stands side in Ayr’s Bronze Cup when finishing 5th of 24. The 3-year-old can win off his present mark and the drop back to a stiff 5f could do the trick.
Gowran Park
4:25 – PWC Champion Chase (Grade 2) – 2m 4f
The rain that’s fallen this week means there’s an eight strong field for what looks a good renewal of this Grade 2 Chase. Not a race I have had a bet in, but Snow Falcon can go well if back to his form of last Autumn, with further rain likely to be in his favour. However, this is a race to watch rather than bet in.
3:50 – Kilkenny Racing Festival Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 3m
Elwood is a horse whose been on my radar since he finished 2nd of 14 over 3m at Cork 198-days ago.
The 5-year-old was a winner on soft ground when trained in France. He’s yet to win for present trainer Gordon Elliott but has just had the three starts and his last run suggested that it wouldn’t be long before he won a handicap hurdle. No issues with the distance and a further easing of the ground should be in his favour. Granted fitness has to be taken on trust but his Cork effort did come off a 102-day absence which is encouraging.
1pt each way – Elwood – 12/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John