Hi all,
My final selections before Christmas. I will be away on holiday now but will be back on Friday December 27th.
There will be a special ante post angle covering any Boxing Day selections, which will be up on Saturday evening.
Have a great Christmas!
Ascot
With heavy ground the order of the day I’m not going in to deep today tips wise but there are a handful of further selections to complement my earlier ante post bets.
1:50 – Plymouth Gin Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 3f
I’m not sure my ante post selection Mr Medic will enjoy the heavy ground.
Espoir De Guye represents the very much inform Venetia Williams stable. The 5-year-old built on the promise of his chase debut with a comfortable win at Exeter 15-days ago. Up 9lb for that success but he’s a young handicap chaser going the right way. Exeter win came on soft ground so should be fine on heavy.
First Flow beat two rivals when winning a Hereford novice chase last time. Handicap chase debut and looks on a competitive mark. Needs to jump better in this company than he has done on his three chase starts so far but is a big player if he does. Ground no problem and step up from 2 mile should suit.
If the Ben Pauling stable was in better form, I would be more confident about the chances of Delire D’estruval who is just 4lb higher than when winning at Sandown in March. The 6-year-old is a good jumper of a fence, will be suited by the soft ground, 3 wins from 6 runs on soft/heavy and is suited to stiff right-handed track 3 wins from 4 runs. First run for 287-days but did win first time up last season.
Another trainer not exactly banging in the winners is Paul Nicholls. He saddles My Way who gets the first time cheekpieces today. He’s 0 wins from 6 runs over fences but he handled heavy when trained in France and has each way claims if the headgear has the desired effect.
Verdict: The heavy ground has probably gone against Mr Medic. With the Venetia Williams horses going so well then Espoir De Guye shouldn’t be far away. But for the trainer form, Delire D’estruval looks shade overpriced.
1pt win – Espoir De Guye – 4/1 @ Bet365
3:00 – Dave Dawes Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 3m
I looked at the race in detail in the ante post angle. One of my Belami Des Pictons is a non-runner but Kildisart is among ten runners who stand their ground for this competitive looking handicap chase.
No Belami Des Pictons but Venetia Williams saddles Yalltari instead. Yalltari will be having his first start since finishing third in the Reynoldstown Novices Chase at Ascot back in February. He could have gone for the Tommy Whittle at Haydock was ante post favourite for that race. Interesting that he’s been routed here. Form figures on heavy going 112. Capable of better but does need to improve to defy a mark of 145.
Verdict: With Belami Des Pictons now a non-runner I’m happy to go in with stablemate Yalltari who should be fit enough for his seasonal return.
1pt win – Yalltari – 4/1 @Bet365
3:35 – Betfair Exchange Trophy (A Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) – 1m 7 ½ f
A field of sixteen stand their ground for the biggest betting race of the day.
Not So Sleepy was gifted an easy lead when winning a Class 2 C&D handicap hurdle here 29-days ago. Probably won’t get that luxury here but he’s only up 5lb for that success. He handles heavy/soft ground and trainer Hughie Morrison won this race in 2001.
Harambe, Monsieur Lecoq & Quoi De Neuf were 1st, 3rd & 4th in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham last month. That’s solid form and all three are contenders here despite rising in the weights.
Monsieur Lecoq ran at Cheltenham last Saturday. He was an eyecatching fourth behind Call Me Lord that day. A better overall gallop would suit the 5-year-old as will return to handicap company. Provided this race doesn’t come to quick I wouldn’t be surprised if he fared best of those who ran in the Greatwood.
Umbrigado didn’t stay 3m in a valuable handicap at Haydock 28-days ago. He shapes like he remains on a competitive mark if the drop back in trip doesn’t prove to much of an inconvenience. On the positive side his stamina will come into play on this stiff track.
Tamaroc Du Mathan returned from a lay off to finish runner-up over C&D last month. He will be sharper for that outing and has potential for further improvement given this will only be the 4-year-old’s third career start. Hard to say he’s well handicapped off mark of 135 and trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 win from 20 runners 6 placed in the race.
Nicky Henderson has won this race four times. He saddles Countister & French Crusader. The former surely needs further than two miles. French Crusader is improving with each start over hurdles and wasn’t disgraced when runner-up to a smart stablemate at Newbury last time. He’s been nudged up 4lb for that effort but seems to be going the right way. Heavy ground is an unknown and his best form so far has come on good to soft or good going.
Verdict: I’m glad I held off this race earlier in the week. Not So Sleepy won’t get the easy lead he got here last time, but he’s got a good chance of another C&D success. Umbrigado looks on a winning mark and his stamina will come into play at the business end of the race. Monsieur Lecoq remains one to be interested in and as long as this race doesn’t come to quick has got good each-way claims.
1pt each way – Not So Sleepy – 10/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Haydock
2:40 – Betway Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 1 ½ f
Just the nine go to post now for what will be a serious test of stamina on heavy ground. My two ante post selections Vintage Clouds & The Hollow Ginge stand their ground which is good news.
Ante post favourite in most lists is the David Pipe trained Daklondike. The 7-year-old won this race 12 months ago on heavy ground off 6lb lower. Should be spot on for this after two runs this autumn and if you fancy, he him I wouldn’t put you off at all. Especially as he’s 3 wins from 3 runs on heavy ground and 3 wins from 3 in December. You could have a saver on him and still make a profit on the race if one of the three selection’s wins.
Verdict: Both my ante post selections stand their ground but likely favourite Daklondike will take the beating in his bid for back to back wins in the race.
1pt win – Daklondike – 9/2 @ Paddy Power
Cheers
John