Hi all,
A healthy profit gained to advised prices courtesy of Blairmayne’s win at the Curragh and Jabbaar’s third placing at Hamilton.
Hopefully more of the same on Saturday. It’s not one of the best Saturday’s of the season betting wise but the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown is from a class perspective a good-looking race.
I have selections running at Sandown, Chester and Chelmsford.
Sandown
1:50 – Justanotherbottle not for the first time was well backed to win, and not for the first time let his backers down at York last week. He didn’t run badly to finish 3 ¼ length off the winner in 9th and is a well-handicapped horse when on a going day. He drops back to a stiff 5f today which could suit but on the negative side the trainer form could be better and stall 11 of 12 isn’t the best. Embour is another runner who is dropping back to the minimum trip here. The 4-year-old was beaten just a nose at Goodwood 8-days ago off 1lb lower. He remains in good form and this a slight drop in class for him. Jumira Bridge put in a career best when winning over C&D back in July. Not at that level on four subsequent starts but C&D form always needs respecting over this stiff 5f. Only Spoofing could only finish 3rd at Chelmsford last time. Prior to that he had won three turf handicaps on the trot. All three wins had come over stiff 5f’s so Sandown should suit in that regard. Up 7lb since his last win at Ascot he’s got a good draw in stall one and can go well.
Verdict: Course form is always useful here over 5f which brings Jumira Bridge firmly into the mix. Justanotherbottle will win a race like this but his wide draw is off-putting. That leaves Embour & Only Spoofing with a slight preference for the former.
Embour – 15/2 @ William Hill
2:25 – A1m 2f Class 2 handicap. Country, trained by William Haggas, won at Redcar on his handicap debut. Comes into this looking for a fourth successive win and is up 5lb in a stronger race. Capable of better but at around 9/4 doesn’t appeal from a value perspective. Migration won over C&D last time. He’s up 6lb but is another capable of more progress. Doesn’t want to hit the front to early, can idle when hitting the front, but if he gets the race run to suit should go close for the in-form David Menuisier stable. Solid Stone makes a quick return to action after finishing runner-up at Yarmouth 6-days ago. The 3-year-old wasn’t suited by how the race was run that day and remains capable of better returned to 1m 2f. Mordin & Hyanna both have form here. The former has a capable 7lb claimer in the saddle but may prefer a bit more ease in the ground. Meanwhile Hyanna was only beaten a short neck into 3rd behind Jazeel over C&D three starts back. A reproduction of that run would see the filly go close again. Ventura Knight bounced back to form when 3rd of 14 to the useful Forest Of Dean at York 7-days ago. If the blinkers work for a second time he has to be taken seriously.
Verdict: Country is a potential winner but he’s plenty short enough in the betting. I’m expecting better run from Solid Stone returned to 1m 2f. Migration won over C&D and looks worth a bet ti follow up.
Migration – 7/2 @ William Hill & Bet365
3:35 – Betway Solario Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
The likes of Too Darn Hot, Masar and Kingman have won this race since 2013 and this year’s renewal look up to standard.
Positive built on the promise of his racecourse debut win to finish runner-up to Pinatubo in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood 32-days ago. The Mark Johnston trained Visinari finished well behind Positive at Goodwood but he’s big tall colt who didn’t seem totally at ease with the track. This track should suit him better and remains open to plenty of improvement. Al Suhail beat three rivals fairly comfortably at Yarmouth last time. This a step up in class for the colt and his price looks plenty short enough compared to the likes of Postive & Visinari who have superior form so far. Still he’s capable of much better and should go well. Trainer Andrew Balding won this race in 2016 and saddles Kameko who won over C&D on his racecourse debut 37-days. Like Al Suhail he needs to make a big jump in improvement to win a race like this, but thats possible as the son of Kitten’s Joy is bred to be useful.
Verdict: I think Kameko will outrun his oddsbut I’m siding with Visinari to show us he’s better than able to show last time.
Visinari – 11/2 @ Paddy Power or 5/1 – Gen
Chester
2:10 – Oh This is Us & Lake Volta were 1st & 3rd in this race 12 months ago. Both are racing below last years marks with Lake Volta getting 2lb for a 1 ¼ length defeat. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again. Arguably the most interesting runner in the field is Aljady, trained by Richard Fahey. The 4-year-old looked set for a good season when 3rd of 21 at York back in May. Nowhere near that form on two subsequent starts but there was a bit more encouragement on his last start at Goodwood. He’s now 1lb below last years winning mark and gets the first time cheekpieces in a bid to spark him up. First run at Chester but if the headgear does the trick and if he handles the ‘twists n turns’ of Chester he’s handicapped to go close.
Verdict: If the cards fall right for Oh This Is Us he looks the most likely winner but at the prices I just prefer Lake Volta with Aljady worth an each-way play.
Lake Volta – 13/2 @ Bet365 or 6/1 – Gen
Aljady – 20/1 @ Bet365 – each way or 16/1 @ William Hill -each way – (paying 3 places ¼ odds)
Chelmsford
7:15 – Betfred Chelmsford City Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f
It’s not often that the most valuable race on a Saturday is being run during the evening but it is today. With £100,000 in added prize money this 7f Class 2 handicap is the richest race in the UK & Ireland today. Given the money on offer it’s attracted a big field of runners and it looks a competitive handicap.
Vale Of Kent was 2nd of 18 at York 9-days ago, beaten just a head. He’s been put up 4lb by the handicapper but can run off the same mark as at York. A reproduction last week’s run would see the previous C&D winner go close.
Cenotaph won this race last off 1lb lower. He’s a far better horse on the synthetics than grass and is 3-3 at Chelmsford. Racing in first time cheekpieces, out of stall 2 he should be bang there for the inform Simon Crisford yard.
Blue Mist was 3rd of 23 in a valuable 7f handicap at Ascot 35-days ago. The 4-year-old is on a competitive mark and trainer Roger Charlton is 7-23 in the past 14-days. Might be better over a mile but he’s capable of being there or thereabouts from stall 5.
Habub has only had the four career starts but he’s 3-3 on the all-weather with the last of those wins coming over C&D 21-days ago. Probably capable of better and if he can get an uncontested lead he would be very dangerous.
Cliffs Of Capri caught the eye at Goodwood 7-days ago when finishing 4th to Salute the Soldier over today’s trip The 5-year-old was very much in contention on the inside furlong out but didn’t get a run when he needed it. He’s just 1lb higher than for his last win at Ascot over 7f last October. Will need luck in the run from stall but if he gets it has each way claims.
Verdict: This is a tough one. Cenotaph should be favourite and will make a bold bid for back to back wins in the race. I would prefer to see Blue Mist tried over a mile but he’s capable of winning a race like this. Habub has the most potential for improvement and shouldn’t be far away. At a bigger price Cliff of Capri has definite each way claims if he gets luck in the run.
Cenotaph – 6/1 @ Bet365 or 5/1 – Gen
Cliffs Of Capri – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John