Hi all,
Plenty of betting opportunities on Saturday at Haydock, Ascot and Kempton. The latter course hosts it’s most valuable all-weather meeting with the Group 3 September Stakes being the feature race of a seven-race card.
The defection of Advertise from the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock means the race has lost some of its lustre. Add in the likelihood that Ten Sovereign’s won’t run due to soft ground and you now have a very open looking race.
It’s at Haydock, which also holds in most valuable flat meeting of the season, where I shall begin this Saturday betting preview.
Haydock
1:50 – First In Line was runner-up to Hamish in the Melrose Handicap 14-days ago. That arguably the best form on offer here and he looked a potential group horse at York. Up 4lb from York and the ground will be much softer, which is a bit of an unknown, but the John Gosden trained colt did win on good to soft at Doncaster two starts back.
Sir Michael Stoute won this race last year with Mekong and he’s double handed this year with previous C&D winner Calculation, the choice of Ryan Moore and Laafy. The latter improved for the step up to 1m 6f and the first-time visor when winning on heavy at Nottingham 22-days ago. If this race hasn’t come to quick, he’s only up 4lb and has the look of an improving stayer. Calculation has also improved for the fitting of the visor winning his last three starts. He’s up 7lb for last of those wins and like is stablemate is going the right way now stepped up distance.
Elysian Flame showed he’s a real ‘mudlark’ when winning the Lanark Silver Bell at Hamilton last week, he also won here on heavy as 2-year-old. This will be only the geldings sixth career start so remains open to further improvement. He didn’t look like he was stopping at Hamilton over 1m 4f so should get today’s extra two furlongs.
With the Alan King horses going well. His runner Trueshan needs respecting on his handicap debut. The winner of Ffos Las novice nine days ago. He still looked a work in progress that day but ultimately ran out a decisive winner at the line. This will be the softest ground he’s faced since his juvenile debut but there’s hope in the pedigree that he should be fine on it. You can hardly say his mark of 91 is a gift but he’s open to plenty more improvement.
Verdict: In a handicap with plenty of runners open to further progress. My preferences are for Laafy and Trueshan.
Laafy – 11/1 @ William Hill – each way
Trueshan – 11/1 @ Bet365
3:35 – Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 6f
A field of 17 are declared to go to post for this year’s renewal. At the head of the market we have several contenders including last year’s winner Reshoun who went on to finish 3rd in the November Handicap. Not so good this season but this is his time of year and his best form has come on rain softened ground. Just 3lb higher than last year and looks capable of going close again.
Corelli was beaten just a head in hot handicap at York 15-days ago. He’s up 2lb for that effort but should remain competitive. He wouldn’t be winning one of these out of turn that for sure. Steps up to 1m 6f, should stay this far on pedigree and although he’s won on soft it would be a bit of an unknown in this company.
Alright Sunshine comes into the race an improving 4-year-old who won over today’s trip on soft ground at Musselburgh 29-days ago. Different track here compared to his last two starts at Musselburgh & Ripon but no reason why he won’t go this way around. Up 5lb for his last win but he’s improving and defying it is a definite possibility.
The likes of Not So Sleepy and Blakeney Point need no introductions. They are both handicapped to win this, if at their best, and will appreciate the rain softened ground.
Crystal King looked set for a good season when winning at Wolverhampton on his seasonal reappearance. Two disappointing efforts on good to firm with an excellent 3rd of 14 at Ayr (good) sandwiched in between. He finished just ¾ lengths behind Kelly’s Dino that day. He’s got ability but is none to consistent and is probably quirky, but Sir Michael Stoute opts for the first-time visor. If the headgear works, the trick he’s very much a contender and will appreciate today’s easier underfoot conditions. Sir Michal Stoute also saddles Melting Dew (Ryan Moore) who was an excellent 4th of 17 at York last time. That run was over 2m ½ f and the slight drop back in distance will suit. Not without a chance at his best but the 5-year-old remains 1 win from 16 runs on turf so looks vulnerable from a win perspective.
Verdict: Blakeney Point is more than capable of winning this if he’s at his best. Crystal King should appreciate the ground and is on a competitive mark if the first-time visor works. The consistent Corelli wouldn’t be winning out of turn and the top weight is the one they have to beat.
Corelli – 13/2 @ Bet365
Crystal King – 14/1 @ Bet365 – each way (paying 4 places ¼ odds)
4:10 – Betfair Sprint Cup Stakes (Group 1) – 6f
With Advertise & Ten Sovereign’s now out the race it looks a shade below standard. That doesn’t make the race any easier to predict.
Forever In Dreams won a Listed race over C&D back in May before improving to run Advertise to 1 ½ lengths in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. Not raced since Ascot and needs to improve a bit further to win this but she’s only had the six career starts so maybe capable of doing so. Had form on soft ground as a juvenile when trained France. Looks to have been underestimated by the bookies.
Waldpfad had Khaadem 1 ¾ lengths back in third when winning a Group 3 at Newbury two starts back. Once he hit the front a furlong from home, he was strong all the way to the line. Khaadem, who he beat fair and square has since gone onto win the Stewards Cup so there was no fluke to Waldpfad’s win. The 5-year-old wasn’t as good in a Group 2 Germany 13-days ago but the return to an easier surface will be in his favour. He’s almost 4 times the price of Khaadem so it looks like he’s been underestimated in the betting as he was at Newbury.
Forever In Dreams – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way
Waldpfad – 11/1 – Gen – each way
4:45 – Foolaad a winner at Doncaster off 1lb higher back in March, has disappointed on his last three starts but a reproduction of this season’s best form entitles the 8-year-old to plenty of respect here.
Foolaad – 11/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes – each way
Kempton
3:15 – Sun Racing “London Mile” Handicap (Series Final) (Class 2) – 1m
Kasbaan won a series qualifier over C&D 4-days ago. The 4-year-old who is now 2-2 on the all-weather showed a good battling attitude at the finish on Tuesday which hold him in good stead here. Stall 10 could have been better but he’s progressive and only has a 5lb penalty. Provided this race doesn’t come to quick and his wide draw isn’t an inconvenience he’s the one they all have to beat.
Kasbaan – 5/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill
Ascot
2:45 – Cunard Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
Ripp Orf hasn’t quite been at his best this season, although he was 5th of 26 in the Victoria Cup over C&D back in May but he’s on a competitive handicap mark, just 1lb higher than when winning this race 12 months ago.
Blackheath a winner over 7f at Leicester three starts. The 4-year-old didn’t get any luck in the run when 7th of 18 at Goodwood on his next start and probably didn’t stay over a mile at York. A return to a stiff 7f will be in the gelding’s favour and he’s got each way claims.
Ripp Orf – 5/1 @ William Hill & Bet365
Blackheath – 20/1 @ William Hill – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
3:55 – Lavazza Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2)
Andrew Balding won this race in 2015 and has a decent chance of winning it again with Never Do Nothing. The 3-year-old has been steadily progressive this season and put in a career best when runner-up over C&D 28-days ago. Nudged up 2lb for that effort demand a bit more improvement from the gelding but he looks capable of getting into the money.
Never Do Nothing – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
4:30 – The Swindler looked a handicap sprinter worth following when running out an easy winner over C&D back in July, off 8lb lower. Not quite as good at Newmarket when sent off the 5/2 favourite on his next start but he didn’t have the best of starts that day and could never really get competitive. The 3-year-old is only having his 6th career start so remains open to further progress and is worth another chance.
The Swindler – 5/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John