Hi all,
It’s King George Day at Ascot with the highlight being of course the Group 1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at 3:40. With Enable a short-priced favourite to maintain her winning running which now dates back to April 2017. There are also competitive looking cards at York & Newmarket.
The recent heatwave is about end with a bang and there could be fun and games on weather front over the next day, with heavy downpours being forecast for most parts of the country. As ever its hard to gauge how much the going will be affected at the various racecourses. However, given most tracks have been watering over the last few days the ground could ease quickly.
My advice would be to keep a close eye on the weather if you are punting on Saturday.
I will start this Saturday betting preview at Ascot.
Ascot
1:50 – Princess Margaret Keeneland Stakes (Group 3) – 6f
Summer Romance who is unbeaten on both her career starts is odds on to win this 2-year-old fillies’ race. She’s unbeaten on both her starts and impressed when winning a Listed race at Newmarket 28-days ago. It’s hard to look beyond the favourite but at a bigger price it may pay to note the Richard Fahey trained Flaming Princess who was 7th of 25 to Raffle Prize in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot on her last start and prior to that had made a winning racecourse debut Nottingham. The daughter of Hot Streak could improve for the step up to 6f, won’t have any issues if the ground was to ease further and has place claims.
Verdict: realistically it’s hard to look beyond the claims of Summer Romance. Flaming Princess does look a shade overpriced based on her Queen Mary run and can run into the places at big odds. If you can get 25/1 or bigger then she might be worth an each way bet.
Flaming Princess – 33/1 @ Paddy Power – each way
3:00 – Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f
A maximum field of 29 runners are declared to go to post for which the winner will receive £93,375.
Ante post favourite is course specialist Raising Sand. His chance is enhanced if soft appears in the going description before post time.
Next in the betting is Arbalet was beaten just ¾ length into second 12 months ago and is 3lb lower this time around. Trainer Hugo Palmer has his horses in great form which means the 4-year-old needs respecting. Arbalet has form on rain softened ground but looks better on good to firm.
Ripp Orf, loves a big field handicap on the straight course. He’s dropped down to his last winning mark and did best of those horses who came off the pace in the Bunbury Cup 14-days ago. He was third in this race last year, but trainer David Elsworth has gone 104-days since his last win which is a slight concern.
Fanaar, showed a good aptitude for the track when 3rd of 28 in the 1m Britannia Handicap at the Royal meeting. Drops back a furlong here which shouldn’t be a problem for the 3-year-old whose best form prior to his last run had come over 7f.
Kaeso, was third in the Victoria Cup over C&D back in May, off 8lb lower. He’s won twice since then. The latter of those wins came at Doncaster 7-days ago. Carries a 3lb penalty for that success but comes into the race in great form and 7f with some ease in the ground look his optimum conditions.
Land Of Legends, caught the eye when winning at Newmarket on his last start. He’s up 5lb for that win but is going the right way. Soft ground would be an unknown for this lightly raced colt. If he handles it he shouldn’t be far away.
Blue Mist, comes into the race after a poor run at Ayr 35-days ago. However, the 4-year-old must be considered a contender of reproducing his 6th of 28 in the Victoria Cup over C&D on his seasonal reappearance, off 1lb higher. Tongue tie goes on for the first time today and ease in the ground suits.
Verdict: Raising Sandwill probably go off favourite if the rain arrives to soften the ground.You can never rule out Ripp Orf on the straight course at Ascot. Arbalet probably needs a sound surface to be at his best and if he gets it, could go one better than 12 months ago. The inform Kaeso will like any ease in the ground as will Blue Mist who shaped like a future winner over C&D two starts back.
Arbalet – 12/1 – each way – Ladbrokes (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
Blue Mist – 18/1 – EACH WAY @ Coral & Paddy Power (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
Kaeso – 16/1 – each way – Paddy Power (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
3:40 – King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) – 1m 4f
The race of the day and has the potential to be the race of the season so far. Enable is the best race mare which have seen in decades and deserves to be odds favourite. Crystal Ocean got his breakthrough Group 1 win at Royal Ascot. Putting in a career best on RPR’s in the process. I think he’s an even better horse at 1m 4f. Enable holds him on her very but he’s an improved horse this season. If he’s ever to beat the mare it will be today.
Verdict: Can we really look beyond Enable? Probably not, but Crystal Ocean can give the mare a race.
York
2:05 – Get Knotted gets to race in contest named after him.The 7-year-old is 3 wins from 9 runs 6 placed over C&D and any ease in the ground will be in his favour. Medahim improved for his stable debut when 4th of 12, beaten 1 ½ lengths, 30-days ago. Best form has come on a sound surface, but he had form on an easy going for his previous trainer. The 5-year-old is back down to his last winning mark and looks interesting with Danny Tudhope having his first ride for trainer Ivan Furtado.
Medahim – 13/2 @ Bet365 & Betway
2:40 – Sky Bet Dash Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
A field of 18 are set to go to post for this competitive sprint handicap.
Flying Pursuit has won the last two running’s of the race, last year’s off 2lb higher, and can make a bold bid for the hat trick. The 6-year-old has winning form on good ground, but his best form has come over the distance on good to soft to heavy ground – 5 wins from 17 runs +25.5 10 placed. He rightly heads the ante-post betting with rain forecast.
Next in the betting is the David O’Meara trained Gulliver. The 5-year-old put in a career best on turf when winning over C&D 28-days ago. That win did come on good to firm by he was only beaten a head on good to soft at Ripon three starts back. Up 5lb for his last win but shouldn’t be far away again.
Trainer Michael Dods saddles two strong contenders in Camacho Chief & Dakota Gold. The former won at Doncaster last month off 5lb lower. That win came over 5f and he’s yet to win beyond that distance on seven starts. On the plus side soft ground will be very much in the 4-year-old favour. Dakota Gold has won over 5 ½ f here in the past. The 5-year-old shaped well on his belated seasonal reappearance when 5th of 13 in the Gosforth Park Cup 29-days ago. Despite being 6lb higher than his last winning mark he needs respecting.
Golden Apollo, stablemate of Flying Pursuit was 3rd to Gulliver over C&D two starts back and was only beaten a neck in this 12 months ago, off 4lb higher. The 5-year-old is on a losing run that dates to August 2017, but he goes well here and likes some cut in the ground.
Encrypted, was a progressive sprint handicapper last year, including a win over C&D and was runner-up in the valuable Portland Handicap last September off 6lb lower. The 4-year-old hails from the inform Hugo Palmer stable and a useful 5lb apprentice has been booked for the ride. On the negative side he’s been kept away from soft ground. He would be a strong fancy for me on good or quicker ground.
Verdict: Encrypted would be my choice on good or quicker ground. If the ground eases as expected, then last year’s winner and runner-up Flying Pursuit & Golden Apollo must enter calculations.
Flying Pursuit – 15/2 @ Paddy Power
Golden Apollo – 11/1 @ Ladbrokes
Cheers
John