Hi all,
As I mentioned in yesterday’s notebook, we have three good day’s racing to enjoy and it all starts today with Newmarket, Chepstow & York.
I’m genuinely excited about todays’ action which is almost at Saturday levels in terms of betting opportunities.
Newmarket
Newmarket holds a seven-race card on day one of the Dubai Future Champions Festival. There’s only one handicap the Old Rowley Cup which has attracted a field of 19 three-year-old handicappers. There are also five Group races, so the accent is very much on quality.
3:35 – bet365 Fillies’ Mile (Group 1) (Class 1) – 1m
What a good race this is and whoever wins will go into the winter months a strong favourite for next years 1,000 Guineas.
A field of nine have been declared to run. We have recent Group 1 winner Love, Group 3 winner Cayenne Pepper, Group 2 May Hill Stakes winner Powerful Breeze and unbeaten filly Quadrilateral. If she handles the dip, then I think Quadrilateral can improve to go past Love & Cayenne Pepper. At around 2/1 she doesn’t really represent much in the way of value albeit I think the daughter of Frankel is my idea of the winner.
May Hill winners are 3 from 6 50% + 9.67 5 placed 83% in the past ten years so Powerful Breeze needs respecting. Arguably she’s the value bet of the race but trainer Hugo Palmer seems to be struggling for winners and good to soft ground is an unknown.
4:10 – bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 4f
There is a big handicap pot like this in Sinjaari. He handles rain softened ground but 1m 4f is probably the limit of stamina and he may find one or two are stronger stayers on good to soft ground.
Derevo is a colt going the right way and comes into the race looking for the hat trick after wins at Pontefract & Newcastle (Tapeta). Up 5lb for the latter of those wins. He should be fine on good to soft but probably wouldn’t want it any softer.
Trueshan ran Cesarewitch favourite Ranch Hand to 2 lengths, over 1m 6f, at Haydock 34-days ago. He’s just had the four career starts and remains on the upgrade on just his second run in a handicap. He handled soft ground well at Haydock and the more rain than the better his chance dropping back to 1m 4f.
1pt each way – Trueshan – 15/2 @ Paddy Power ( paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
York
3:50 – Racebets Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 6f
Despite the claims of the Old Rowley Cup the field size for this Class 2 handicap has held up well with 19 declared to go to post.
Hamish won the Melrose Handicap over C&D at the Ebor Meeting. The softer ground should bring out more improvement in the gelding who’s just 6lb higher than last time. Most likely winner but at around 15/8, I can happily let him win.
Plenty have chances. Fox Vardy seemed to handle soft ground at Salisbury back in June. The colt put in a career best when 2nd of 6 at Newmarket 49-days ago. Step up to 1m 6f needs to elicit more improvement but if it does a mark of 83 looks workable. I don’t think we have seen the best of this 3-year-old yet.
Deal A Dollar remains on a competitive mark after his recent Newmarket win but must reproduce his improved all -weather form back on turf.
The more rain the better for Elysian Flame who is 2-2 on heavy and was only ½ length behind Trushan at Haydock last time. Just 1lb higher but looks very interesting in the first-time blinkers.
Navajo Pass broke his maiden tag at the 4th attempt when winning at Carlisle (good to soft) 51-days ago. No problem with the distance or the going and he races off just 4lb higher than last time. Up two notches in class but not easily dismissed.
Verdict: Likely winner Hamish is too short in the betting for me. I’m expecting a big performance from the first time blinkered Elysian Flame,if the ground has gone soft. Navajo Pass has the potential to win races of his mark but must prove he can win in this class. I doubt we have seen the best of Fox Vardy and he’s a tentative each way selection.
1pt each way – Fox Vardy – 14/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds) or 14/1 @ William Hill ( paying 4 places ¼ odds)
1pt win – Elysian Flame – 17/2 @ Coral
4:20 – Parsonage Hotel And Cloisters Spa Handicap (Class 3) – 5f
Moss Gill was an eyecatcher when beaten just a short head over 6f two starts back. The 3-year-old was then sent off 7/2 favourite for a 19 runner Class 2 handicap over C&D at the Ebor Festival. Found just one to good that day. Up another 2lb for that run and maybe better over slightly further but the rain softened ground will help. Trainer James Bethall is among the winners and Moss Gill has to be high on the shortlist.
Given the form of the Ron Harris stable recent Wolverhampton winner Daley Express needs respecting and the trainer won this race in 2015. Recent Ripon winner Count D’orsay is another with strong claims and bids to give Tim Easterby a third successive win in the race.
Jawwaal looked a winner in waiting when beaten just ½ length behind stablemate Dakota Gold over 6f here three starts back. He hasn’t run to that form on two subsequent starts but is 1lb lower here and a strongly run 5f on soft ground could be ideal for the 4-year-old if he can get some cover.
Verdict: Moss Gill deserves to land a race like this but Jawwaal is a dangerous opponent if he gets the race run to suit.
2pts win – Moss Gill – 4/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill
Chepstow
It’s the first big meeting of the winter jumps season today and there should be a few horses for the notebook over the next two -days. From a betting perspective there’s only one race I have looked at.
3:55 – Professor Caroline Tisdall Supports Heroic Jumpers Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Leg 7 Of Vets’ Series) (Class 2) – 2m 7 ½ f
Ten runners have been declared to go post for this veterans’ chase. Joe Farrell the 2018 Scottish Grand National winner may need further to be seen at his best but trainer Rebecca Curtis is 2-2 in the past 14-days and the ground will suit the 10-year-old. A big run can be expected as he’s got winning form when fresh.
Another who goes well first time up is On Tour. The 11-year-old is 3 wins from 6 runs 5 placed (form figures 121215) when running after a 121-day + layoff. He’s only been out of the first two once after such a break and that came when 5th of 13 in this race 12 months ago. He races off 13lb lower this time around and must be seriously considered.
1pt win – On Tour – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Joe Farrell – 9/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill
Dundalk
A quick mention for a recent eyecatcher who runs in the valuable 1m 2f handicap at 7:45.
7:45 – Galway Hurdle winner Tudor City bounced back to form after a disappointing run at York when 4th of 16 at the Curragh 26-days ago. Given the form of the Tony Martin stable this recent eyecatcher needs respecting. Stall 14 is a concern though, as is the distance. As I wrote after his Curragh run:
“The 7-year-old ran on all the way to the line but just found 1m 2f a bit short in this company. A winner over 1m 3 ½ f he stays 1m 4f, on the evidence of this run he can land a decent handicap on the flat when stepped back up in distance.
If you fancy him, I won’t put you off his chance, but I won’t be putting up as a selection today.
Cheers
John