Hi all,
After the bonus ante-post email that I sent earlier. The weekend betting action gets underway with three good handicaps Ascot on Friday.
Ascot
2:40 – A 2m 5f handicap chase that saw Mr Medic beat Flying Angel 12 months ago. Both winner & runner-up re-oppose and at the revised weights Flying Angel has a good chance of reversing places with the winner, especially if the ground was to ease to soft. On the negative side you must go back to the spring of 2017 for Flying Angel’s last win.
Mr Medic’s has got a better win profile 6 wins from 15 runs and last year’s win came on his seasonal reappearance and he returns for the first time since pulling up in the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Two from four here at Ascot, he seems at his best in the first part of the season 5 wins from 9 runs +35.5 6 placed between October to December. Trainer yet to have a winner this autumn, is a slight concern, but I’m hoping for a big performance from his runner here.
Besides, Mr Medic we also have a recent eyecatcher Sky Pirate running here. This is what I wrote after his seasonal reappearance; “The 6-year-old, twice a winning hurdler, improved for going over fences last season. No wins from five starts 2 placed. He had only been beaten a length at Carlisle on his second start over the larger obstacles and then fell two out when still in contention at Cheltenham in November.
Returning from a 216-day break. He was held up in the early part of the race before making headway five out. He was just behind the leader when falling two from home. This was a promising run given the 2m 3f distance looked like it might prove a bit short for the son of Midnight Legend”.
Hopefully he will be none the worse for this mishap and the step up to 2m 5f looks in his favour. He looks set to go off favourite, is on a good mark and will be tough to beat with a clean round of jumping.
1pt win – Mr Medic – 5/1 – Gen
1pt win – Sky Pirate – 5/2 @ Paddy Power
3:15 – Fourteen have been declared for this 3m Class 3 handicap chase.
King Of Realms won a C&D novice handicap chase here 12 months ago, off 8lb lower and ended last season with a decisive win in the first time visor at Wincanton in March off 3lb lower. Remains capable of better, if the visor continues to have a positive effect. Won first time up last season and seems to go well fresh.
The likes of Cloth Cap might prefer better ground, & Dragon D’Estruval will have their supporters. As will recent Exeter winner Orchardstown Cross who has won three of his four starts over fences with form figures 2111. Up 9lb since Exeter but the 8-year-old may not have reached his class ceiling just yet.
Reikers Island was very impressive when winning at Wincanton last December off 11lb lower before looking like he would follow up in the Mandarin Handicap Chase at Newbury on his next start but for a mistake at the last he could well have prevailed. The 6-year-old wasn’t so good on his final two starts of last season but shaped with promise when 4th of 10 on his Exeter reappearance last month. He will be better for that run and although he may want further 3m, remains capable of better.
0.5pts each way – Reikers Island – 13/2 @Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
3:45 – Another handicap that has attracted a decent sized field. Two recent eyecatchers Red Force One & Oakley run.
Red Force One a comfortable winner of a Fakenham novice hurdle oh his return form a summer break. Given his relative inexperience over hurdles he ran a cracker when 2nd of 15 behind Gumball over C&D 20-days ago. Staying on best of all after the last he got within a neck in Gumball at the line. There is surely decent handicap hurdle in the 4-year-old although he probably won’t want the ground much softer than good to soft.
Oakley improved with each of his four starts over hurdles last season looking particularly progressive when winning on his handicap hurdle debut at Kempton back in January. The 6-year-old was having his first start for 286-days when finishing 3rd of 13 behind Benny’s Bridge in the 2m ½ f handicap hurdle. He ran like the run was needed at Cheltenham and should improve plenty for it. Ground versatile and looks set for a big run with Ben Jones taking off a valuable 5lb.
Speed Company a good handicapper on the level put in a career best over hurdles when winning at Chepstow last month. The handicapper has raised him 9lb for that success but should remain competitive of his new mark although he does have a bit find with Oakley on their running at Kempton.
Of the rest Ferrobin has a consistent record in novice hurdlesand has only been out of the first two once on eight starts. The 5-year-old makes his handicap hurdle debut today but needs to improve further if he’s to defy a mark of 130.
1pt win – Oakley – 6/1 – Gen
Cheers
John