Hi all,
The weekend betting action starts on Friday. There’s a competitive card at the Curragh with group races and the Irish Cambridgeshire. I have a couple lively outsiders at the Curragh. This side of the Irish Sea there are two decent handicaps at Thirsk and Hamilton in which I have selections.
Curragh
5:50 – Just a 24 runner, 6f handicap puzzle to solve. Castletownshend is a rare flat runner for Ted Walsh. The 4-year-old remains maiden after 13 starts but has run well in sprint handicaps, including two starts back, when getting going to late here over 5f. Needs all the cards to fall right but is on a competitive mark when they do. Blairmayne’s best three Racing Post Ratings have come over C&D on good to firm or good to yielding. The 6-year-old normally runs his race and is just 1lb higher than his last win back in May. More than capable of winning this from stall 24.
Castletownshend – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Blairmayne – 20/1 @ Bet365 – each way – (paying 4 places ¼ odds)
6:50 – Tote Irish Cambridgeshire (Premier Handicap) – 1m
With €100,000 in guaranteed prize money not surprisingly the race has attracted a big field of runners.
Trading Point, a three-time winner when trained in the UK, all on a sound surface, made a good start for trainer Damian English when runner-up in the Irish Lincolnshire at Naas back in March. The 5-year-old wasn’t at the same level of form on his next four starts but bounced back to form when runner-up over C&D 21-days ago. The handicapper has nudged him up 2lb for that run but remains on competitive mark from a potentially good draw in 25. Osin Murphy has been booked for the ride and he shouldn’t be far away.
Trading Point – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Thirsk
3:40 – Sixteen go to post for this 6f Class 3 sprint handicap. Plenty of old favourites and you can nake a case out for more than half of the field.
Bielsa has only had two career starts winning both at Redcar and Doncaster. The 4-year-old has been off the track for 104-days since his last win and makes his handicap debut off what looks a decent mark. Goes well fresh and should be in the mix.
Jawaal ran his best race since joining present trainer Michael Dods when finishing third to stablemate Dakota Gold, who’s since gone onto win two since. Looked to be travelling like the winner when taking it up inside the final furlong but was just run out of it. That was a career best from the 4-year-old who races off just 1lb higher.
Just a short head in front of Jawaal at York was Muscika. The 5-year-old has since gone on to run respectably in two subsequent starts, including when 4th of 15 in the Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon. Won this race 12 months ago, off 5lb lower and won over C&D back in May. Needs to find a bit more to win this time but Harrison Shaw takes off a useful 5lb.
Of the rest; Wentworth Falls is a better on a quicker surface but is on a competitive mark. Golden Apollo & Tommy Taylor are on winnable marks, if on a going day, but both find winning hard. Flying Pursuit & Captain Colby are very well handicapped if bouncing back to form, but both have struggled form this season. Multiple course winner The Armed Man can win this on a going day but probably wants faster ground. Meanwhile Al Qahwa who makes his seasonal reappearance, has run well first time up, is a serious contender but is probably better with more ease in the ground.
Verdict: Bielsa could be ahead of the handicapper. I wouldn’t be shocked if Golden Apollo or Tommy Taylor were to this. However, at the prices my picks are Jawaal and Muscika.
Jawaal – 7/1 @ William Hill
Muscika – 8/1 @ William Hill & Bet365
Hamilton
6:55 – Ladbrokes Lanark Silver Bell Handicap (Class 3) – 1m4f
A field of 14 runners have been declared for this historic handicap which used to be run at the now defunct Lanark racecourse. It’s a competitive renewal and there are plenty of contenders.
Mark Johnston is 5-18 in this race in the past ten years. He saddles just the one runner in the improving 3-year-old Sapa Inca. The filly has really improved on recent start, winning at Newbury (soft) before going on to finish runner-up at Goodwood and win over today’s distance at the Shergar Cup. The handicapper has put her up 4lb for her Ascot success but in a truly run race she’s capable of defying her new mark.
Archi’s Affaire won this race 12 months ago off today’s mark. Just the two starts this season but the 5-year-old should be spot on fitness wise after his 4th of 7 at Pontefract 23-days ago. Has a good chance of back to back wins.
Jabbaar was runner-up 12 months ago, beaten ½ length and may well have won with a clearer passage a furlong out. He’s 2lb better off with Archi’s Affaire this time around. He’s consistent enough but tends to place more than he wins and is vulnerable to an improver like Sapa Inca. Still each way claims, as the race should be run to suit his hold up style.
The Glasgowwarrior was third in this last year, just ¾ length behind the first two. His last two wins have come over C&D the most recent of which came in May off 1lb lower. Needs a truly run race to be seen at his best and would prefer quicker ground than he’s likely to get here.
Paths of Glory is a lightly raced 4-year-old who got off the mark when winning at Ffos Las 29-days ago. Best form on RPR’s came on good to soft two starts back and he gets the first time cheekpieces for his handicap debut. Looks on a workable mark off 79 and his trainer Hugo Palmer is 3-4 at Hamilton in the past 5-years.
Beyond The Clouds, a winner over hurdles, has only had three starts on the level but did win a Ripon 25-days ago and makes his handicap debut today. Hard to work if he’s that well handicapped or not.
Dark Lochnagar has improved on each of his last four starts and was only beaten a neck over C&D by Moll Davis three starts back. He’s since gone on to win a soft ground handicap at Chester and run just as well when runner-up back at the same track 26-days ago. The 3-year-old is well suited to an easy surface and given this is just his 10th career start he might not have reached his class ceiling just yet.
Multellie has an excellent C&D record, never outside the first two on four starts, including this race in 2016 off 7lb higher. The 7-year-old has struggled for form this season but worth noting he won twice last September off higher marks. Clearly well handicapped if bouncing back to form but tends to run to his best when able to get out in front an dominate which will be hard here.
Verdict: A tricky puzzle that for sure. Sapa Inca is an improving filly who should get the race run to suit. Has a good chance of giving her trainer another win in the race. Paths of Glory is a lightly raced, progressive and looks on a decent mark for his handicap debut. Last year’s winner Archi’s Affaire looks to have been aimed at this race again and has a good chance of back to back wins. Jabbaar last years runner-up is handicapped to go well again and is another who will be suited by a strongly run race. Drier ground brings The Glasgowwarrior right into the mix and the harder the go up front the better he is. Dark Lochnagar needs to find a bit more improvement to win but has place claims.
Sapa Inca – 7/2 – Gen
Jabbaar – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way –(both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John