Hi all,
Well a nice winner courtesy of Magnetic Charm at 7/1 and couple of big priced each way efforts from Mildenberger & Alfie Solomons means that the Dante Festival has ended in a steady profit for the service. To follow on from a profitable three days at Chester’s May Festival last week,
As I mentioned in the weekly notebook it’s a quiet one on Saturday and Sunday doesn’t hold much attraction. That said Newbury does host a Group 1 with Lockinge Stakes and a decent supporting card, including the London Gold Cup Handicap.
Newbury
3:00 – Al Zubarah London Gold Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
A valuable handicap for 3-year-old’s only. Traditionally a race where the form is usually worth following.
Trainer Roger Charlton has had 3 winners from 3 runners +11.50 in the race in the past decade. That record means his runner Headman needs respecting. Trainer has struggled for winners on the turf this season but did have a winner at Bath on Wednesday. He looked a potential pattern horse when winning on his racecourse debut at Newcastle back in November before finishing second at Kempton. The son of Kingman pulled to hard on his seasonal reappearance on soft ground over C&D and could only finish 6th of 9 to King Ottokar. Top weight of 9-7 is going to be tough to defy but he’s capable of more progress and holds a Group 2 entry at Royal Ascot. The better ground should suit and he has to be on the shortlist given the trainer’s record in the race.
With a race like this you need a trends “hotspot”. Six of the last ten winners of the race had previously one over today’s 1m 2f distance – 6 winners from 23 runners 26% +33.75 11 placed 48%. Six of todays fifteen declared runners have done so.
One of them is the ante-post favourite Solid Stone who won a Newmarket handicap 32 -days ago. He improved for the step up in distance last time and although he’s been raised 6lb he’s an improving colt. He holds a Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes entry at Royal Ascot
War Tiger was runner-up to Solid Stone that day, beaten just ½ length and gets a 1lb from the winner here. Highly regarded by trainer Richard Fahey and there shouldn’t be much between the pair again. He looks to have decent each way claims.
Another distance winner is the Andrew Balding trained Good Birthday. An improving juvenile he made a winning seasonal reappearance and handicap debut at Doncaster at the Lincoln Meeting. He’s up 8lb here but is another improving colt very much on an upward curve.
Mark Johnson won this race last years with Communique and he saddles last time out Bath winner Sky Defender. He made almost all that day but showed a good battling attitude to rally when headed two furlongs out, to win by two lengths. It was stamina that won that race and the further they went the better he looked. No problem with quick going for the son of Farhh either. Up 4lb in a much better race but he’s unexposed over this sort of distance and shouldn’t be underestimated.
Sinjaari, raced with promise on his one start for Ed Dunlop last season. Was second to a subsequent handicap winner at Redcar for new trainer William Haggas last month. Before improving to go one better when winning a 1m 2f maiden at Windsor, 19 days ago. The son of Camelot took that maiden in good style and looks to be on a workable for his handicap debut off 89.
Verdict: Sinjaari is a lot shorter in the betting than I expected. Sky Defender and War Tiger have each – way claims for the North. Headman has to be respected given his trainer’s record in the race. However, at the prices I’m siding with Newmarket winner Solid Stone.
Solid Stone – 5/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral
3:40 – Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
Over the straight mile and a big field of 14 are declared to go to post for the race.
If you fancy the favourite Le Brivido the stats for the market leaders won’t put you off the Aidan O’Brien trained runner. As favourites are 7 winners from 11 bets +7.03 in the past decade.
Again, looking for a trend’s hotspot. Seven of the last ten winners had won at Group 1 level – 7 winners from 13 runners +11.28 which leaves a shortlist of Laurens, Without Parole, Accidental Agent, Billesdon Brook and Romanised. Of those the likeable Laurens looks the strongest contender.
Le Brivido has been very lightly raced since finishing a short head runner -up in the 2017 French 2,000 Guineas and going onto win the Group 3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot when trained by Andre Fabre. Just the one run last season and returned for his new trainer when 3rd in a Group 3 at Naas 35-days ago. Lightly raced and capable of more progress this season over a mile. He shades it for me but this is a very open race.
Le Brivido – 5/1 @ Paddy Power & BetVictor
5:25 – Petrus has come on leaps and bounds for an off-season gelding operation. Winning the Spring Mile at Doncaster before being produced almost on the line to win at Bath 29-days ago, off 3lb lower. The runner-up at Bath Salute The Soldier is 1lb better off for a short-head defeat but I fancy Petrus can confirm with him again. With the Denis Coakley horses running well it would be foolish to rule out a big run from Hors De Combat. A fast-paced mile suits the 8-year-old and he’s 3lb below his last winning mark. Each way claims if the first time cheekpieces bounce him back to life.
Hors De Combat – 16/1 @ William Hill – each way (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Petrus – 11/2 – Gen
Newmarket
3:15 – Yousini was runner-up in a C&D handicap 31-days ago. He was a shade unlucky in the run that day and looks capable of going close off 3lb higher. Moraawed and Dazzling Dan were first & second at Doncaster 22-days ago. Only a head separated the pair that day but the runner-up gets 2lb now and was arguably a shade unlucky as he tried to make all in a strong head wind and was only run down by the eventual winner in the final 50yds. He remains on the upgrade and looks the value bet here. If he was trained by one of the big Newmarket trainers rather than Pam Sly he would be vying for favouritism with Moraawed.
Dazzling Dan – 6/1 @ William Hill & BetVictor
Recent Eyecatchers Running on Saturday
There are two recent eyecatchers running today and both look to have solid claims in their respective races.
Newbury
4:50 – Sea Of Faith – 9/4 @ Ladbrokes & Coral
Newmarket
5:35 – Daschas – 7/2 @ Bet365 & William Hill
Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available.
All selections win only unless indicated as each way.
Cheers
John