Hi all,
Vinndication was too well handicapped for his rivals in the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot yesterday. It’s always nice when a 2pt selection goes in. Lisp landed the place side of the bet in the 2m handicap hurdle at the same venue. Hopefully some of you were on recent eyecatcher Gumball who won the race in the hands of rising star Ben Jones.
The most important thing is that we came out of a tough Saturday with a small profit.
Onto Sunday. There is an interesting card at Carlisle which sees the return of smart novice chaser Lostintranslation in the Colin Parker Memorial Chase. He faces just three rivals here and is long odds on to make a winning seasonal reappearance. A win here and he heads to the Betfair Chase for which he will be a strong contender although I was hoping he would be going for the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury.
The most competitive racing today is over the Irish Sea at Cork, which features an intriguing Grade 3 Novices’ Chase and the 3m 4f Paddy Power Cork National. We say goodbye to the Irish flat season at Naas with the highlight of it’s eight race card being the €100,000 ,Daragh Fitzpatrick & Colm White Local Bookmakers November Handicap. The going is heavy at Naas and hopefully the meeting will pass a morning precautionary inspection.
Today’s selections come from Cork & Naas.
Cork
2:45 – Paddy Power Home Of The Money Back Special Irish EBF Novice Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4f
Relatively experienced chasers Ex Patriot & Any Second Now take on the likes of Sayo and Dallas Des Pictons in an intriguing novices’ chase
Dallas Des Pictons improved with each of his first five starts last season for Gordon Elliott winning a Punchestown maiden hurdle before going on to win over 3m on his handicap debut at Leopardstown in February. He flopped in a Grade 1 at Aintree on his final start but that run was too bad to be true and he’s better judged on his Cheltenham run. Connections wasted no time in sending him chasing and he was a facile winner of a Gowran Park beginners chase 29-days ago when his market rival departed early in the race. Hopefully a better run race will suit him better here and he’s got the scope to become a Grade 1 novice chaser.
1pt win – Dallas Des Pictons – 7/2 @ Coral & William Hill
3:20 – Paddy Power Cork Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 3m 4f
A field of 16 have been declared for this year’s renewal of the Cork National. Looking at the ten-year trends which contain 10 winners from 152 runners 35 placed.
Nine of the last ten winners of the race met the following four trends:
Odds SP: 14/1 & under
Wins on Going: 0 to 1
Handicap Chase Wins: 0 to 2
Not Top Weight or between 7lb of Top Weight
9 winners from 60 runners +23 24 placed
Three of today’s runners qualify using those four trends: Young Paddymc, Cloudy Morning & Progress Drive.
Young Paddymc did well in novice company last season with form figures 212F. Looked to be going well in the lead when hampered by a loose horse and falling two out in a valuable Punchestown Festival handicap chase. First run since May but has gone well fresh in the past and looks capable of landing a decent pot this season off his present mark.
Cloudy Morning has only won one of his 16 starts over fences but that sole win did come in a seventeen runner 3m 7f handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival. The 11-year-old has returned from a summer break with two runs, one over a trip well short of his best and over hurdles last time. Now 12lb higher than at Punchestown but there’s no doubting his stamina for 3m 4f and he will be spot on fitness wise.
Progress Drive’s best run last season for former trainer Nicky Richards came when 3rd of 16 in the Border’s National last December. Well backed (7/1) on his debut for Gavin Cromwell in the Munster National but could never get competitive. Looks capable of better.
Oscar Knight was third in the Munster National and if he stays 3m 4f won’t be far away again.
The Gatechecker was a 2 length third in this race 12 months ago and can race off 5lb lower this time around. A reproduction of that performance would see the 9-year-old hard to beat but his form since has been poor and he pulled up at Gowran Park 29-days ago.
Aherlow is 0 wins from 6 runs but arguably put in his best effort over fences when third at Gowran Park last time. The 7-year-old has winning form over hurdles at the track and should be capable of winning over fences but this a tough race to break his maiden tag and he will do well to reverse form with winner Wonderoftheworld.
The likes of Port Aven (Willie Mullins) and The Red Menace (Noel Meade) both hail from powerful stables, are unexposed in handicap chases and could be capable of rating higher.
Verdict: Young Paddymc and Cloudy Morning are my selections in what looks a wide-open Cork National but don’t rule out The Gatechecker bouncing back to form.
1pt win – Young Paddymc – 6/1 @ Coral & Bet365
1pt win – Cloudy Morning – 10/1 @ Bet365 or 8/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
Naas
3:10 – Daragh Fitzpatrick & Colm White Local Bookmakers November Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 1m 6f
Until 2017 this race was run at Leopardstown and used to be race over 2m or more latterly 1m 7f. Since it’s moved to Naas it’s settled at 1m6f. Sixteen have been declared to run for this valuable prize with eight of the 16 strong field being trained by Willie Mullins
Not a good race to use from a trending perspective although it may be worth noting eight of the ten winners were aged between five and seven.
Draw wise – there have only been four flat races at Naas over 1m 6f + in the past decade.
Stall: 1 to 8 – 4 winners from 27 runners 9 placed (Stall 1 to 4 – 4 winners from 15 runners 5 placed)
Stall: 9+ – 0 winners from 21 runners 3 placed
The small sample sizes involved mean if you fancy one drawn in a double figure stall, I wouldn’t put you off and I like two who are drawn high.
Given Willie Mullins saddles 50% of the field, I suspect you need to find one to add to your shortlist.
Stratum is in stall one. He was a well beaten favourite in this race 12 months ago which came after a disappointing run in the Cesarewitch. He comes into this year’s race having returned to his classy best when winning this year’s Cesarewitch off 7lb lower.
Diamond Hill showed plenty of battling ability to win a soft ground listed race at Galway two starts back. Not at that level when beaten at Bath last time but shaped like a step up in trip would suit. Gavin Ryan takes 5lb off the mares back and with her low draw could be dangerous.
Mr Everest won this race 12 months ago, off 3lb lower. The ground will be much softer today but he has won on heavy in the past. Looks handicapped to win this again but stall 19 is a concern. Well beaten behind Stratum last time in the Cesarewitch but the drop back in trip is in his favour.
Dalton Highway is in stall 11. The 6-year-old has been in consistent form in 1m 6f/2m handicaps this season, with form figures 1222. The last of those placed efforts came when runner-up in the Irish Cesarewitch at the Curragh 21-days ago. You can’t say he doesn’t deserve to land a decent pot like this.
Verdict: Dalton Highway won’t be winning out of turn. Mr Everest looks to have a good chance of back to back wins in the race if stall 19 isn’t an inconvenience. Of those drawn low, don’t rule out a big run from Diamond Hill.
0.5pts each way – Diamond Hill – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 4 places ¼ odds)
1pt win – Dalton Highway – 11/1 @ William Hill & Coral
1pt win – Mr Everest – 13/2 @ William Hill
Cheers
John