Hi all,
I think Saturday’s racing is the best of the winter from both a racing and betting perspective.
It’s Tingle Creek Chase Day at Sandown and it looks a high-class renewal of the of this Grade 1 chase. There’s also a good supporting card of races on the Sandown card. Aintree see’s the return to action of the Grand National fences with the Becher and Grand Sefton Chases the highlight of an eight-race card. Add in competitive cards at Chepstow, Navan and Wetherby and you can see why I’m excited about today’s action.
Let’s begin this preview at Sandown.
Sandown
2:25 – Jumeirah Hotels And Resorts December Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 2m
Protektorat returned from a summer break and a wind-op to put in a solid effort when 2nd of 11 in a maiden hurdle over C&D 27-days ago. The 4-year-old is lightly raced, open to more progress and makes his handicap debut on ground that suits.
Paul Nicholls saddles Imperial Cup winner Malaya and Ashutor. The former is a C&D winner but latter appeals at the prices. Ashutor is having his second start since a wind-op and returned to action with a solid enough effort when runner-up at Huntingdon 14-days ago. His mark looks no better than fair on his form so far, but he remains capable of better and a useful 7lb claimer has been booked for the ride.
Verdict: I doubt we have seen the best of Ashutor but with ground going heavy I have slight preference for Protektorat who handled it well enough last time.
1pt win – Protektorat – 4/1 – Gen
3:00 – Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) – 2m.
The best 2m chase outside the Cheltenham Festival and this year’s race has attracted high class field of eight runners. Given I tipped up Defi De Seuil each way for the Champion Chase I will naturally be hoping for a big run from the 6-year-old who looks set to get the fast pace that suits. Not sure he should be as short as 13/8 so there could be some value in taking him on.
Politologue won the race in 2015, he might be better over further, but the soft ground will be in his favour. He ran Defi De Seuil to 1 ¼ lengths at Cheltenham last month and meets the favourite on 3lb better terms here. You can see why his connections think he has a good chance of reversing form.
The admirable Un De Sceaux won this in 2016 and gave Altior a fright in last years race. He might be a 11-year-old but his win over Min at the Punchestown Festival in April was arguably as good a performance in his career.
Janika & Sceau Royal are in the same ownership. Retained jockey Daryl Jacob has opted for the latter and the drying ground will be in the 7-year-old’s favour. Janika deserves to take his chance after an impressive win the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter 32-days ago. He will be better suited if the ground was to ease again before post time. If it does, he doesn’t have much to find with better fancied rivals and is rated 3lb higher than Defi De Seuil by the official handicapper.
You couldn’t totally dismiss the claims of the strong travelling Waiting Patiently who will be suited by the anticipated strong pace.
Verdict: A race to enjoy for the sport itself. For anyone taking on the favourite then Janika each way could be the way to go.
0.5pts each way – Janika – 9/1
3:35 – Betfair London National Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 5f
The final declarations are in and 14 have declared to go for this marathon handicap chase. I have already tipped up Classic Ben for this race
Step Back has come in for good support in the past couple of days and you can see why. He won the Bet365 Gold Cup over C&D in 2018 and was third in this year’s renewal.
Royal Vacation bounced back to his best when 3rd of 13 in the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton 29-days ago. He’s got a staying handicap chase in him off his present mark.
Vinnie Lewis is another who looks on a competitive mark. The 8-year-old is a through stayer and will be fitter for his seasonal reappearance in the Durham National. Aidan Coleman is a good jockey booking for the gelding who showed he handled the track, when runner-up here in March over 3m.
Verdict: I’m happy with Classic Ben but Vinnie Lewis appeals each way.
0.5pts each way – Vinnie Lewis – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Aintree
1:30 – Randox Health Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 2f
Eighteen go to post for the first race over the Grand National fences of the season. Previous experience of the fences is always a positive. That’s why last years winner and runner-up Walk In The Mill & Vieux Lion Rouge have to be high on the shortlist.
Besides winning this race 12 months ago, Walk In The Mill was 4th in last years Grand National so we know these unique fences bring out the best in the 9-year-old. He can race off just 4lb higher than last year and the first time cheekpieces have been enlisted today. Trainer is struggling for winner which is a negative as would be drying ground but apart from that he got a great chance of back to back wins.
Vieux Lion Rouge won this in 2016 in addition to last years runner-up effort off 1lb higher. Showed his well being when winning a veterans’ chase at Chepstow on his seasonal reappearance. Slight concern that he might be best fresh, but he’s record around here means he can’t be left out calculations.
Another who goes well around here is As De Mee. The 9-year-old won the Grand Sefton here in 2019. The forecast good to soft going will suit him, won the Grand Sefton on good to soft. Just the two starts since falling in this race in 2017. If Bryony Frost can get him into a nice rhythm, he’s got appealing each way claims.
Verdict: If As De Mee gets in a good jumping rhythm he won’t be far away. It’s hard to split Walk In The Mill and Vieux Lion Rouge.
1pt win – Walk In The Mill – 9/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill
0.5pts each way – As De Mee – 14/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
3:15 – Virgin Bet Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 5f
The number of runners has held up nicely with 14 set to go to post for the second race over the Grand National fences.
The early 14/1 available about Gold Present has long gone but the top weight’s claims are obvious on good or good to soft ground.
Ultragold is a standing dish around here. He was runner-up in this race in 2017 and has also won the Topham Chase over C&D in 2017 & 2018. The 11-year-old is just 1lb higher than for the last of his wins.
Paul Nicholls won last year’s race with Warrior’s Tale and his record since 2013 is 3 winners from 9 runners 33% +21.5 5 placed 56%. He saddles recent Fakenham winner Touch Kick who must be high on the shortlist for the trainer record alone.
French raider It’s Jennifer adds spice to the race but it’s hard to know how the mares form compares with her rivals, but she could be well handicapped off a mark of 130.
Killaro Bay caught the eye here last time. He might need further to be at his best but he’s a sound jumper which will hold him in good stead here. Trainer Henry Oliver is 3-11 27% with his runners in the past 14-days so the 10-year-old needs respecting.
Didero Vallis has to be respected on the best of last seasons form. He’s just 4lb higher than when winning at Haydock 12 months ago. Not as good on three subsequent starts but the 6-year-old wasn’t disgraced when 5th of 22 in the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate at the Cheltenham Festival. Probably needs softer ground but there is a big handicap in him this season.
Wishful Dreaming will be suited by the drying ground and the 8-year-old isn’t without a chance if he takes to the fences off a mark of 127.
Verdict: I think this the most competitive race of the day.Kilaro Bay’s a good jumper of a fence who can go well, if the drop back in trip doesn’t inconvenience. If the going remains no worse than good to soft then Gold Present is a big player. Paul Nicholls record in the race means Touch Kick has to be high on the shortlist. Didero Vallis will appreciate soft ground and is better than he was able to show on his reappearance at Ascot.
1pt win – Kilaro Bay – 8/1 – Gen
1pt win – Didero Vallis – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John