Hi all,
Three profitable days at the Cheltenham Festival it’s just a shame that the final day was a bit of a blowout.
The Saturday after the Cheltenham Festival always has the air of “After the Lord Mayor’s Show”. Which is understandable given the four fantastic days of racing that precede it. It is of course, a bit unfair on Uttoxeter who host their biggest days racing of the year, with Midland Grand National the feature, and can expect their biggest crowd of the season.
There are a couple of other valuable handicaps on the Uttoxeter card and two Class 2 handicaps on the Kempton card.
Both fixtures are subject to precautionary inspections with ‘Storm Hannah’ due to batter the UK with gale force winds and plenty of rain, if the weather forecasters are correct.
The going at Kempton is good to soft and at Uttoxeter it’s soft. If the forecast rain does arrive in the volumes predicted, then it’s likely that Midlands National will be run on heavy going as it was last year.
Uttoxeter
3:00 – Paul Nicholls saddles Dr Sanderson & Magoo. The former made it 2 from 3 over hurdles when winning at Ffos Las 18-days ago. Capable of more improvement on his handicap debut but needs to find it and this will be the softest ground he’s run on. There should be no issue with the ground for Magoo. He was twice a winner on testing ground when trained in France. The 7-year-old’s first start this season was over fences but he’s since run a couple of promising runs over hurdles. Latterly when runner-up at Sandown back on soft ground 8 days ago.
Acey Milan who was 4th in last years Champion Bumper when sent off the 9/2 favourite. Got his head in front over hurdle for the first time when winning at Plumpton 31-days ago. Step’s back up in trip here and the 5-year-old makes his handicap debut off what looks a fair mark.
Bold Plan beat a subsequent Grade 2 winner at Taunton 40-days ago. He was probably a bit flattered by that win as the runner-up is better horses on a sound surface. Still a mark of 130 looks fair for his handicap debut.
Duarigle, finally came good when winning a soft ground handicap hurdle at Sandown two starts back before running just as well in defeat at Newbury 14-days ago. The drop back in trip on good to soft wasn’t in his favour at Newbury, He’s progressive and looks capable of winning again.
Verdict: Acey Milan remains a horse with potential over hurdles. Duarigle’s another capable of winning off his present mark.
Acey Milan – 6/1 @ Bet365
Duarigle – 11/1 @ Paddy Power – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds) or 10/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
3:35 – Marston’s 61 Deep Midlands Grand National (An Open Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) – 4m 2f.
A maximum field of 20 are set to go to post for this year’s renewal and I have seven on the shortlist.
Ms Parfois, has only had one run this season down to the unseasonably dry ground. A top-class novice chaser last season. The mare gets her ground today and should be suited by a marathon trip like this. Looks on a winnable mark and it’s a no excuses day for the 8-year-old.
It wasn’t the best of Cheltenham’s for Gordon Elliott but his runner Folsom Blue needs respecting as he gets his ground favoured testing ground. He stays all day and should go close.
Recent Eyecatcher Ballydine has been running well in handicap chases at 3m 1f & 3m 2f, this season. He shapes like a marathon trip will suit and he races off the same mark as when 3rd in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock 56-days ago. He’s another who goes well in the mud.
David Pipe trained the winner of this race four times between 2011 & 2014 and he saddles Dell’Arca. He was good 3rd under top-weight at Haydock on his last start 76-days ago. The 10-year-old is 2 from 2 at the track and can go well if the going doesn’t get to heavy.
Back To The Thatch, finished one place ahead of Dell’Arca at Haydock and has been kept fresh for this. Needs soft or heavy ground and is just 4lb higher than when travelling strongly but falling in last years Eider Chase. The 7-year-old needs his jumping to be at it’s best here if he’s to take advantage of a competitive mark.
Chef D’Oeuvre, was the winner of that Haydock race. He went up 13lb for that win but arguably put in an even better performance when a 2 length 3rd in the Grand National Trial at Haydock. The good ground that day would have been plenty quick enough for him, 3 wins from 5 runs 4 placed on heavy. After his Haydock run I thought this race on soft or heavy ground would be an ideal target for the 8-year-old.
Evan Williams won this race in 2016 and he’s got an interesting contender in Prime Venture. The 8-year-old is 0 wins from 5 runs over fences but has a similar chance to Back To The Thatch on their running at Chepstow back in December. Looks the sort who could make significant improvement over a marathon trip like this.
Milansbar, was an eyecatcher when staying on into 4th over an inadequate 3m 2f at Newbury 14-days ago. The softer ground today plays to his strengths and he was runner-up in this race last year off 5lb higher. Bryony Frost who has won on the horse is back in the saddle and despite now being a 12-year-old has each way claims.
Verdict: Ms Parfois could win this race easily. Both eyecatchers Ballydine and Milansbar are capable of bold shows and Chef D’Oeuvre looks an ideal type for a marathon trip like this.
Ballydine – 9/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
Milansbar – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way – (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds) or 10/1 @ William Hill (paying 7 places)
Chef D’Oeuvre – 10/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 7 places)
Kempton
2:40 – A 2m 5f handicap that has been won by some decent horses in the past and it will be worth keeping an eye on the winner of the race next season. Nicky Henderson won the race in 2016 with Might Bite and Theinval a year earlier. He saddles Burrows Park who returned from a 301-day lay off to finish 2nd of 13 over C&D 21-days ago. The 6-year-old should be all the better for that run and is just 2lb higher than for that neck defeat. Looks to have a solid favourites chance here.
Burrows Park – 3/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
3:15 – El Teremoto, could be the answer to this 2m 4f handicap chase. The 7-year-old won a Southwell novices’ chase last July and then was second at Stratford, He then fell at the last when in contention at Perth and fell on his next start at Wetherby. Had a confidence booster when runner-up on his handicap chase debut at Perth two weeks ago. The return to 2m 4f will be in his favour and he still has potential as a handicap chaser. Hopefully he can get the better of the better fancied Onefortheroadtom and Brother Tedd.
El Teremoto – 11/2 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
Besides Ballydine and Milansbar in the Midlands Grand National we also have a couple of eyecatchers running this evening at Wolverhampton.
Wolverhampton
5:40 – Kilbaha Lady – 5/1 @ Bet365 – Has been knocking on the door on her last two starts and is capable of going one better here.
6:15 – Ballard Down – 14/1 @ Ladbrokes – each way – Lost his chance at the start at Newcastle. The previous C&D winner for his former trainer, had been running well at Lingfield prior to his Newcastle flop. Gets the first time cheekpieces, replacing the visor today and should be capable of a bold show if he takes to the change of headgear.
Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available
All selections win only unless indicated as each way.
Good luck with your bets.
Cheers
John