Hi all,
It’s Super Saturday with seven race meetings around the UK and another two across the Irish Sea. Let’s begin this Saturday betting preview at Newmarket where it’s the final day of the July Festival with feature race being the Group 1 July Cup over 6f and it looks a cracker of renewal. At York it’s the John Smith’s Cup Handicap which looks as competitive a contest as ever.
Plenty of potential bets today from Newmarket, Ascot & York.
Newmarket July Festival – Day 3
2:20 – bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f
The big betting race of the three-day Newmarket July Festival.
A maximum field of twenty are declared to go post for this year’s renewal.
Zap – The 4-year-old won the Silver Bunbury handicap here 12 months ago and later that season put in a career best when winning a valuable 7f handicap at Leopardstown last September. He now races off 4lb lower than for that win which gives him a great chance here. His optimum conditions are 7f on good to firm ground with his top six RPR’s coming when getting them. The geldings top two RPR’s have also come in field sizes 15+. The first-time visor had been enlisted and if the headgear works, he’s got a better chance than his odds suggest. Two slight negatives to his chance are no winner had been sent off 18/1 or bigger in the past ten-years and he needs a strong pace to come off and the race doesn’t seem set up for the closers.
Roger Fell won this race last year with Burnt Sugar and he saddles Burnt Sugar & Admirality. The former looks capable of a bold bid in his attempt at back to back wins, although like Zap he could be a hostage to the pace of the race. He’s remains competitively weighted and holds a number of these on last year’s form. Admirality is a more prominent racer. He won a competitive 7f Thirsk handicap, on his first start for the trainer, back in May off 4lb lower and has run just as well when placing at York & Leicester on his last two starts. Like his stablemate he seems at his best on a sound surface and looks set to go well.
Ripp Orf excels in big field 7f/1m handicaps, usually at Ascot. The 5-year-old has dropped back down to his last winning mark which makes him a contender. He showed he was no back number when 5th of 26 in the Victoria Cup at Ascot two starts back and has been dropped 2lb. A major negative is the form of the David Elsworth stable who has gone 48 runners and 90 days since his last winner.
Of those at head of the market the most interesting could be the Jane Chapple-Hyam trained Ambassadorial. The 5-year-old was a useful juvenile for Michael Halford, winning a Listed race at Dundalk. He clearly wasn’t the easiest to keep sound as he only raced once as a 3-year-old and only ran in good race last season on his seasonal reappearance once again at Dundalk. Won on his first start for 293-days and his first start for his new trainer once again on the all-weather at Chelmsford 24-days ago. If, and it’s a big if he can translate his all-weather form, he remains a well-handicapped horse even under his penalty.
Verdict: Oh, this a tough one and you can almost guarantee I will no doubt leave off the winner from my shortlist. My four against the field are in no particular order: Ambassadorial, Burnt Sugar, Admirality and Zap.
Burnt Sugar – 12/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
Ambassadorial – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Admirality. – 14/1 @ Coral & Paddy Power (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds) – each way
Zap – 28/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds) or Coral 25/1 – each way
4:05 – California Love – Ran a big race when 6th of 27 in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot. That was her first start for 218-days and she did best of those fillies who raced up with the pace. If she hasn’t had to hard a race at Ascot, she looks to have a good chance here with normal improvement.
Rae Guest does well with his fillies and big run from Dupioni could be on the cards. The daughter of Siyouni has only had the four career starts, winning at Kempton as juvenile. She made a pleasing seasonal reappearance when 3rd of 8 over C&D 22-days ago. Finishing here race of nicely she wasn’t subjected to a hard race and should be sharper today.
I also like Charlie Fellowes trained I Am Magical. She won a fast ground fillies mile handicap on the course back in May. Not as good on two subsequent starts but there are valid excuses. She failed to settle at Nottingham and last time wasn’t as suited to the rain softened ground or the pace of the race at Sandown. At the right end of the handicap and just 3lb higher than for her win she’s got a big chance. Her hold up style means she could be hostage to the pace of the race.
I Am Magical – 9/1 – Gen
California Love – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:40 – Darley July Cup Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) – 6f
Advertise is the market leader. The 3-year-old enjoyed the return to sprinting and the first time blinkers, when winning the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. He won here as a juvenile last year and is the one to beat.
Dream Of Dreams was a strong finishing runner-up to Blue Point in the Diamond Jubilee and looks set to get the fast pace he likes.
Fairyland was only beaten 3 lengths by Blue Point in the 5f King Stand Stakes last time. Doing her best work at the finish she will be better over today’s 6f, 4 wins from 5 runs 5 placed over the distance. Aidan O’Brien also saddles So Perfect and Ten Sovereigns. The latter is the choice of Ryan Moore and although he’s been disappointing so far this season, he was only 2 ½ lengths behind Advertise at Ascot but could get closer here.
Verdict: If the blinkers work again Advertise will be hard to beat. Dream Of Dreams has improved with each run this season and deserves to land a big one. Fairyland was a much bigger price early in the week and the 8/1 is about right about the 3-year-old’s chance. I wouldn’t be surprised if her stablemate Ten Sovereigns put in a big performance and Ryan Moore keeps the faith with the colt.
Dream Of Dreams – 9/2 – Gen
Ascot
1:45 – Tis Marvellous, goes well at Ascot having won a C&D handicap last August and finishing runner-up to Cape Byron in the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot, a race he had finished 4th in the previous year. It was no disgrace to beaten by that horse and he looks capable of going close here.
Tis Marvellous – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:50 – William Haggas is 2 winners from 5 runners 3 placed and Sir Michael Stoute is 2 winners from 3 runners in the fillies’ handicap in the past ten years and they both saddle runners in this year’s renewal. It may pay to go with top-weighted Haggas runner Ummalnar who’s better than she was able to show at Ripon on her seasonal reappearance 23-days ago. The return to quicker ground should suit as will drop back to a mile.
Ummalnar – 11/2 @ Ladbrokes
4:35 – Persian Moon looks to have a decent chance even under top-weight of 9-7. The 3-year-old put in a career best when 4th of 16 in the King George V Handicap over C&D at the Royal Meeting. He’s been nudged up 1lb for that effort, but he remains on a competitive mark if he can reproduce that on just his second start in a handicap. Almania finished just ¾ length and one place behind in that Royal Ascot race, he should improve on that and gets a 1lb from Persian Moon but is half the price of the selection.
Persian Moon – 7/1 – Gen
York
3:50 – John Smith’s Diamond Jubilee Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2 ½ f
It’s the 60th anniversary of the John Smiths sponsored race and a maximum field of 22 are declared to run in this year’s race.
Exec Chef has run with credit on five of his six starts this season, runner-up in the Spring Mile on his seasonal reappearance and has been beaten two lengths or less on his last four starts. The return to 1m 2f has eked out a bit more improvement in the 4-year-old. Was shade unlucky in the run when 4th of 10 to Jazeel at Sandown 8-days ago.
Jazeel has a 5lb penalty for that win but Sean Davis takes of a valuable 3lb and there shouldn’t be much between him and Exec Chef. He probably needs a good solid gallop to be seen at his best, but if he gets it the 4-year-old could have further improvement in him for the very much inform Jedd O’Keeffe stable.
This race was identified as a target for Mountain Angel after is win in a valuable handicap at Epsom. He’s since run well enough when 5th of 16 in a Listed race at Royal Ascot. Just 5lb higher than at Epsom you can see why he’s been well found in the market for this. He beat Jazeel a length at Epsom and meets that one on 1lb better terms here, not taking into account the jockey’s claim.
The lightly raced Francis Xavier is an interesting runner. The 5-year-old won a C&D handicap last September on his first start for trainer Kevin Frost. That win came on good to soft, but he seemed effective on good to firm when winning at Doncaster for previous trainer Hugo Palmer. He ended last season with a win in a Pontefract handicap, off 7lb lower. Just the one run in a Listed race at Goodwood, little chance at the weights, 49-days ago. This is only his 8th career start so he remains capable of a bit more progress on a galloping track that suits. It will be interesting to see if there is money for the gelding, as he looks overpriced to me.
Verdict: A usual competitive renewal of the race. Francis Xavier could be overpriced, Jazeel might not have stopped his progression just yet and Exec Chef wouldn’t be winning a handicap like this out of turn.
Francis Xavier – 28/1 @ Coral or 25/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes (Paying 5 places 1/5 odds) – each-way
Jazeel – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (Paying 5 places 1/5 odds) – each-way
Exe Chef – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (Paying 5 places 1/5 odds) – each way
5:35 – Oclan looks on a competitive mark for his nursery debut. He looked a sure-fire future winner when a strong finishing runner-up on his racecourse debut. Not so good on his next two starts but he gets the first-time hood today and has place claims.
Oclan – 18/1 @ Ladbrokes or 16/1 @ Coral – each way
Cheers
John