Hi all,
It seems ages since there were any selections but the decision to concentrate on the big races only, paid off last Saturday with a 16/1. It’s normally quiet at this time of the season with the big action centred around the Saturday’s anyway.
Today, there are three valuable handicaps spread around Warwick, Kempton & Fairyhouse. Let’s begin Saturday’s betting preview with the Classic handicap Chase at Warwick.
Warwick
3:00 – McCoy Contractors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 5f
Last year’s winner & third Impulsive Star & Crosspark both run again. Impulsive Star’s form figures on three subsequent starts are an unappealing PPP. However, it means the 10-year-old has dropped to just 4lb higher than 12 months ago. Gets the first-time blinkers today and if you are willing to forgive his three runs this season then he would be on a competitive mark. The going was also good last year, and today’s softer ground may favour last years third. Crosspark went on to win the Eider Chase on his next start last season and finished runner-up in the Scottish Grand National off 2lb lower. Vulnerable to any progressive horses in the field and will do well to finish ahead of Impulsive Star if that one was to reproduce last years run.
The Conditional arguably comes into the race with the best form. A winner at Cheltenham in October on soft ground he improved further to finish runner-up to the De Rasher Counter in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury on his last start. He’s 5lb higher now but is very much on the upgrade and looks a worthy favourite.
Kimberlite County finished runner-up in the Becher Chase at Aintree. He seemed to enjoy the Grand National fences that day and if he can replicate that form back on a conventional track, he’s a major player that’s for sure. Might be better off a longer lay off.
Le Breuil finished 7th in the Becher Chase. He travelled well through the race and will be all the better now, especially as trainer Ben Pauling’s horses are going much better now. Top-weight 11-12 will be tough to overcome but the trainer opts to take 7lb off his back which bring him into contention.
Bobo Mac comes into the race in the form of his life. A winner at Ludlow on his seasonal reappearance the 9-year-old put in a career bets over fences when runner-up at the same venue 24-days ago. Came up against an improver that day and is 5lb higher in a better race today. Still he remains a contender if in the same form as last time.
Captain Chaos was beaten just ¾ length by Takingrisks in the Rehearsal Chase two starts back finishing one place ahead of the useful Top Ville Ben. That’s strong form which makes him a contender, but he did pull up in the Welsh Grand National on his last start. In his defence it’s not the first time he’s run poorly at Chepstow Three winners of this race in the past 9 years have won this race after running in the Welsh Grand National and all three failed to complete in that race – 3 winners from 14 runners +22.5 4 placed. . This track should suit him better and he will enjoy the soft ground. He just needs to jump better than he did last time but if he does and he stays the 3m 5f he will be there or thereabouts.
Verdict: The Conditional isn’t the most exciting of selections, but he will be tough to beat after his Ladbroke Trophy run. Bobo Mac is in good form and if he stays today’s longer trip is a player. Captain Chaos has each way claims on his Rehearsal Chase second and if you forgive his Welsh Grand National run.
1pt win – The Conditional – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
0.5pts each way – Captain Chaos – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places ¼ odds) or 16/1 @ Betway (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Kempton
2:40 – Unibet Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) – 2m 5f
The Lanzarote Hurdle doesn’t have the prestige it once had but it’s still attracted a field of 14 handicap hurdlers.
Notre Pari is a short-priced ante-post favouriteat around 5/2.The 6-year-oldbroke his maiden tagat the 5th attempt when winning a Class 2 handicap hurdle at Aintree last month. It was a decisive success and he was strong at the finish over 2m 4f. Today’s extra furlong shouldn’t be a problem and he showed he can go right-handed when runner-up at Market Rasen two starts back. Up 8lb but goes well with juice in the ground and remains open to further progression.
Burrows Edge one of two runners for Nicky Henderson, who has won the race twice since 2010, reverts to hurdles after falling on his chase debut at Ludlow 24-days ago. That’s not an ideal preparation for a race like this but the drying ground is in his favour and he posted two of his best effort’s over hurdles over C&D in Feb/March last year. Drying ground is a positive and he must be high on the shortlist.
Larkbarrow Lad is another who will be suited by a drying ground. He returned to action in the autumn in good form winning the Fixed Brush Hurdle Series Final at Worcester on his last run 80-days ago. The absence shouldn’t be an issue as he’s gone well fresh in the past. First run since a wind-op and is 8lb higher in the handicap now. Shouldn’t be far away if returning at the same level as form as when last seen.
Verdict: Again, Notre Pari isn’t the most inspiring picks from a price perspective but he’s an improver and looks the one to beat. Burrows Edge needs respecting given trainer Nicky Henderson’s record in the race and Larkbarrow Lad has a likeable profile and the form of the Philips Hobbs stable means he’s got to be considered.
1pt win – Larkbarrow Lad – 9/1 @ Betway or 8/1 @ Coral
Fairyhouse
2:10 – Dan & Joan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 2m 1f
Sixteen have been declared for a competitive looking handicap chase.
Duca De Thaix and Blazer were first and third in this 12 months ago. Duca De Thaix showed up well to finish third here last time. He’s 6lb higher than 12 months ago but Sean O’Keeffe takes off 5lb so he races of a competitive mark and should be spot on fitness wise after two starts this season.
Blazer looks to have a good chance of finishing ahead of Duca De Thaix this time as he’s 4lb better off for a 1/ ¼ lengths. Unlike his old rival this is his first start for 343-days. However. he has a decent enough record off a 121+day layoff – 1 win from 4 runs 3 placed – including when finishing runner-up in the Galway Hurdle in 2018. Mark Walsh takes the ride and the 9-year-old looks set for big run again.
Avenir D’une Vie, stablemate of Duca De Thaix, is the ante post favourite the 10-year-old beat his stablemate decisively here 42-days ago. Duca De Thaix will likely be fitter today but I fancy his stablemate can finish ahead again, even though he’s 8lb higher now. Two winners of this race from two runners won that Fairyhouse race before winning this. Just his second start since joining Gordon Elliott stable and there could be more to come despite his age.
Verdict: Avenir D’une Vie deserves to head the betting and shouldn’t be far away even off 8lb higher than last time. The Willie Mullins trained Blazer has form when returning from an absence and goes well at the track.
1pt win – Avenir D’une Vie – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Blazer – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Other races:
Kempton
1:35 – Mercian Prince has won the last two running of this race and has been given a good chance by the handicapper of getting the hat trick. The first-time visor has been enlisted and if it has the desired effect, he won’t be far away.
Sammy Bill is now 2 from 2 over fences and won over C&D on his chase debut back in November. He’s been raised 11lb, but he’s handicap chaser on the up and will be hard to beat. His weight rise means Cap St Vincent who was 4th behind Sammy Bill at Aintree last time could get closer.
1pt win – Mercian Prince – 6/1 @ Bet365
3:15 – Just eight go to post for this Class 2 handicap chase but it’s attracted a decent field.
On the Blind Side beat Talkischeap over C&D in a novice chase last February. The 8-year-old disappointed when fancied in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury but ran much better when runner-up to Riders On the Storm at Ascot last month. He came up against an improver at Ascot and his handicapped to win. The smaller field will also suit as well slightly better ground than last time.
Touch Kick looked an improver when winning at Fakenham on his seasonal return in October. He then disappointed in the Grand Sefton over the National fences 35-days ago. Today’s smaller field will be in the 9-year-old’s favour, as all his six career wins have come in field sizes 11 or less.
Walt won a better handicap chase over C&D 11 months ago, off 4lb lower. Showed his well being when winning at Wincanton two starts back. Drier ground would probably suit the 9-year-old better, but he can’t be totally dismissed.
King Of Realms could have been expected to run better on his seasonal reappearance when only 11th of 13 at Ascot 50-days ago. The 8-year-old had ended last season when making all to win at Warwick in March, off 2lb lower. Normally a good jumper of a fence a reproduction of his Warwick win would put him into the mix here and he could get an uncontested lead to.
1pt win – King Of Realms – 8/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John