Hi all,
Fingers crossed the weekend’s racing isn’t hit by ‘Storm Denis’ as it looks like it will be. It’s all a bit of a pain to spend hours of form study and do write up for races that don’t take place. There are potentially good cards at Haydock & Ascot.
I have selections from Haydock, Ascot & Wincanton and there’s an in-depth preview of the Grand National Trial at Haydock.
Haydock
3:15 – Unibet Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 4 ½ f
Just eleven have stood their ground for the race and one of those Ballyoptic has Ascot as his first preference. Two of the leading ante post fancies Truckers Lodge & Ramses De Teillee have not been declared but its still looks a good race with plenty in with a chance.
Vintage Clouds enhanced his excellent record at the course when winning the Peter Marsh Chase here at the last meeting. He jumped well that day and although he’s been raised 9ilb for that win can never be ruled out at his favourite track. Has 3 furlongs further to travel today but has shown in the past that he gets 4m and is very effective on heavy ground.
Geronimo was third in the Peter Marsh. Was still in contention when making a bad mistake 6 out in last season’s Scottish Grand National. He made a winning seasonal reappearance over an inadequate 2m 4f at Newcastle back in December before his career best effort her last month. The 9-year-old has only had seven starts over fences and remains capable of better still. Gets a handy 12lb from Vintage Clouds for a 7 ¼ beating and needs to today’s longer distance to bring out further improvement. If it does, he’s got each way claims.
Lord Du Mesnil made it 2 from 2 at Haydock when winning over C&D 47-days ago. The 7-year-old is an improving staying handicap chaser and goes well very on soft & heavy going. Hard to say that he’s reached his class ceiling, but he is now 10lb higher than last time and in a better race.
The Two Amigos was close behind the leaders when falling in this race 12 months ago. Has run with promise again this season, was a close-up 3rd under top weight in the Southern National at Fontwell two starts back and last time finished 5th of 17 in the Welsh Grand National. The 8-year-old stays well and goes in the mud but may not quite be up to this class.
Yala Enki, like Truckers Lodge trained by Paul Nicholls, finished two places in front of The Two Amigos in the Welsh Grand National and has since gone on to win at Taunton. The 10-year-old won this race two years ago for previous trainer Venetia Williams. Was a well beaten 5th in this 12 months ago but the ground was good and he’s much more effective with plenty of juice in the ground. Can’t be ruled out here but he’s on a career high mark and vulnerable to better handicapped rivals.
Steely Addition looked a promising staying handicap chaser in the making when winning on heavy ground at Chepstow back in December 2018 and in March went on to win a Hereford novice chase. The 8-year-old has only had the one run this season when last of four behind Santini at Sandown 97-days ago. That run was too bad to be true and he could well show that running all wrong before the end of the season. Should he run has each way claims if trainer Philip Hobbs has got him back to something like his best.
Previous Grand National Winner One For Arthur returns for the first time since finishing 5th of 18 in the Becher Chase at Aintree 70-days ago. Has had a wind-op in the meantime and gets to race in the first time cheekpieces. Clearly no issues with stamina for the 11-year-old and trainer Lucinda Russell likes the race 3 winners from 6 runners 50% +22 since 2010. Lay off shouldn’t be an issue as his 4 wins from 7 runs 5 placed when racing 61 to 240-days since his last run. Back to a good mark but will connections want him to have too hard a race on what looks like will be bottomless ground?
Verdict: Lord Du Mesnilis improving and looks a worth favourite. Geronimo has a decent chance of finishing ahead of Vintage Clouds and has each way claims. Steely Addition is another with each way claims if fully tuned up.
1pt each way – Steely Addition – 14/1 @ Paddy Power
1pt each way – Geronimo – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Ascot
2:25 – Domaine De L’Isle made it 3 from 3 when winning here over 2m 4f 28-days ago. Step up to 3m shouldn’t be a problem as he won at Newcastle over 2m 7 ½ f two starts back. All three wins have come on soft or heavy. Up 6lb but has potential for more improvement back at 3m.
Regal Encore won this race in 2018, third last year and won over C&D in December. The 12-year-old seems to come alive over Ascot’s 3m distance with form figures 10P1321. Has been raised 4lb for his last win but is still lower than when winning this race.
Verdict: A race that has cut up badly since I first had a look it earlier in the week. Course specialist Regal Encore will be popular, but my preference is the progressive Domaine De L’Isle.
2pts win – Domaine De L’Isle – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:00 – A competitive handicap hurdle over 2m 3 ½ f. The ante post market is headed by recent heavy ground Chepstow winner Eden Du Houx, trained by David Pipe who won this race in 2015. The 6-year-old was having his first run since a wind-op that day and looks on the upgrade. Unbeaten in two bumper runs, including a listed race here. He should stay today’s longer distance and looks on a workable mark for his handicap debut.
Donald McCain, won this race in 2012, and could saddle The Con Man. The 7-year-old ran out a comfortable 6 ½ length winner at Kelso 19-days ago. Raised 7lb for that success but he’s handicap hurdler going the right wat and is strong contender.
Verdict: Despite fifteen handicap hurdlers being declared to run I think the race lacks a bit of depth and I can’t really look beyond Eden Du Houx and The Con Man who both hail from previous winning yards.
1pt win – The Con Man – 11/2@ Coral & Ladbrokes
Wincanton
2:12 – Kayf Adventure bounced back to form when 3rd of 8 behind Domaine De L’Isle in a better race at Ascot last time. A previous C&D winner, form figures 212. The 9-year-old is on a fair mark and is well suited to soft or heavy ground.
Not Another Muddle was a decisive winner at Sandown on his second start after a 11-month absence from the track. Did well to finish 5th of 19 in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham off 2lb lower. He made a couple of mistakes at crucial points in that race and in the circumstances his running on 5th of 19 can be regarded as a good effort. Career high mark of 140 now but remains capable of winning a nice pot when gets ease in the ground over 2m to 2m 4f. First run for 309-days but did win first time up in 2017.
Verdict: Not Another Muddle could be aimed at another tilt at the Grand Annual but can win this if fully tuned up. Kayf Adventure ran much better at Ascot last time and is a previous C&D winner and rates a strong contender for the win especially with the first time cheekpieces enlisted.
1pt win – Kayf Adventure – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Not Another Muddle – 5/1 @ Coral
Cheers
John