Saturday June 22nd – Royal Ascot – Day 5
This years Royal Ascot has been a real challenge to say the least. Yesterday I managed to talk myself out of each way bets on Advertise & Watch Me. Let’s hope that we can end it with a profit.
Three recent eyecatchers are running at Ascot today and another five go at Ayr & Newmarket. As ever let’s begin with final Royal Ascot Preview of 2019.
2:30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) – 7f
Aidan O’Brien saddles a couple of live contenders in Lope Y Fernandez who made an impressive winning debut at the Curragh 15-days ago and Year Of The Tiger who wasn’t subjected to hard race when runner-up at the Curragh on the same card should appreciate today’s extra furlong. Sir Michael Stoute hasn’t had a 2-year-old runner at Royal Ascot in the past 10-years. He runs Heaven Forfend who made a promising racecourse debut when runner-up at Newbury 35-days ago. He will improve for that run and is an intriguing runner for the trainer. Stall one is never ideal
Verdict: Lope Y Fernandez looks the most likely winner but around evens I can let him win. Stablemate Year Of The Tiger has each way claims as does Heaven Forfend.
Year Of the Tiger – each way – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
Heaven Forfend – each way – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:05 – Jersey Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
The Aidan O’Brien, trained So Perfect is sure to be popular with punters as is Space Blues, trained by Charlie Appleby. Both come into the race on the back of last time out wins. However, runners that had won their last race are underperforming being 0 winners from 49 runners 8 placed 16% – the Exp/Wins for such runners was 4.63.
One positive stat concerns runner’s dropping back from Group 1 company who are 7 winners from 31 runners +46 11 places. Momkin & I Am Superman are the only two to qualifier this year. The former was down the field in the English 2,000 Guineas but is better judged on his neck second to Skardu in the Craven. Needs quick ground but it should continue to dry out and the first-time blinkers are enlisted today. I Am Superman, continues, on the upgrade and arguably put in a career best when 6th of 14th in the Irish 2,000 Guineas.
Verdict: Momkin & I Am Superman have each way claims in an open looking race.
Momkin – 10/1 – each way @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
I Am Superman – 22/1 – each way @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
3:45 – The Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 4f
Two trainers Sir Michael Stoute & Aidan O’Brien with eight between them have dominated the race in the past ten years and they both have runners this year.
Sir Michael Stoute who won last year’s race with Crystal Ocean is 6 winners from 16 runners 38% +18.05 7 placed 44%
Both Aidan O’Brien winners were 4-year-old’s who had last raced 21 to 45-days previously – 2 winners from 3 runners 67% +4.17.
Defoe won the Coronation Cup on his last start. He got a strong pace to chase at Epsom and if he gets it again is a major player.
Lah Ti Dar was never really travelling in the Coronation Cup. A return to a more conventional track will be in her favour and whilst she does have a question to answer after that run. If she returns to her best, can go close.
Salouen helped to force that strong pace at Epsom and did well to hold on for third. Slight drop in class will suit but he isn’t likely to get an uncontested lead here with Communique in the field again. Not far away on the figures but is vulnerable from a win perspective.
Southern France is the Aidan O’Brien runner. He was third in last year’s St Leger and put in a career best when runner-up to Stradivarius in the 1m 6f Yorkshire Cup 36-days ago. Didn’t shape last year like he would be at this level over 1m 4f but does fit the profile of an O’Brien winner of the race and needs respecting.
Sir Michael Stoute runs Mirage Dancer who won a Goodwood Listed race on his seasonal reappearance. The 5-year-old was said to have needed the run that and can progress further. He seems to be getting better with age.
All eyes will be on ante-post favourite Masar whose having his first start since winning last year’s Derby. If he’s anywhere near that level of form he’s the one they all have beat.
Verdict: This year’s race looks as competitive as any in recent seasons. Maser looks the most likely winner and even looks a backable price. Sir Michael Stoute’s record means Mirage Dancer needs respecting. Defoe needs a strong pace to chase like at Epsom. He could get it again here and if he does, he will be tough to beat.
Mirage Dancer – 6/1 @ Coral
4:20 – Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) – 6f
Blue Point won the King Stand over 5f on Wednesday. He’s won over C&D and the drying ground will suit him well. The one they all must beat if this run doesn’t come too quick after such a big effort. Right favourite that’s for sure. However, there are plenty of other live contenders.
Invincible Army has won both his two starts this season, including the Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes last month and has a good chance. Yafta finished 3rd at York, the 4-year-old could finish a bit closer to the winner on this stiffer track and could run into the money at big odds.
The Tin Man a triple Group 1 winner, has a great record over C&D. He won this race in 2017 and was 4th last year, beaten just 1 ¼ length. He will be all the better for his Windsor seasonal return and can never be ruled out here. The faster they go up front, the better he goes
French raider City Light was beaten a short head in this race last year. The 5-year-old will have been laid out for this and has a great chance of going one better.
Sands Of Mali made all to win the Group 1 over C&D on Champions Day and was only beaten ½ length into second in the Commonwealth Cup 12 months ago. He doesn’t have much to find with Blue Point on the figures. Clearly likes it here and must be respected. But will drying ground suit others better?
Verdict: There could be a strong pace which could play into the hands of the closers like Invincible Army, The Tin Man & City Light.
The Tin Man – 12/1 @ William Hill
City Light – 8/1 @ William Hill & BetVictor
5:00 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f
Cape Byron won the 7f Victoria Cup here last month and is unexposed over 6f. A strong traveller, the drop back in trip shouldn’t be an issue and the drying ground will play to his strengths.
Hey Jonesy finished 5th of 22, beaten 2 length, in last year’s Commonwealth Cup over C&D last year. The 4-year-old wasn’t disgraced when finishing 5th, on the heels of the first three home in the Duke Of York Stakes last month. A reproduction of last year’s Royal Ascot run would see him go close.
Spring Loaded was 9th in this race last year, beaten just 3 ¼ lengths, but would have finished a lot closer with a better passage. Dylan Hogan takes off a valuable 5lb and the 7-year-old could get the race run to suit.
Summerghand, one of four David O’Meara trained runners, has returned to action with two runner-up efforts at Newmarket. The 5-year-old remains on competitive mark and the trainer did win this in 2017. He’s the choice of stable jockey Danny Tudhope whose had three winners here already this week.
Recent eyecatcher Gunmetal, a useful 6f handicapper last year, had looked handicapped up to his best coming into his last race. However, he was finishing his race off strongly when 4th of 19 at York over 5f. Races off the same mark as at York and Osin Murphy takes over the in the saddle. He’s another who will be suited by coming off a strong pace.
Verdict: There looks to be pace all over the track and it could pay to look for those horses who like to come from off the pace. It’s the sort of race you can back four in and none of them make the places. My four against the field are, in no particular order, Cape Byron, Gunmetal, Summerghand and Spring Loaded.
Cape Byron – 8/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
Gunmetal – 12/1 – each way @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
Summerghand – 20/1 – each way each way @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
Spring Loaded – 25/1 – each way – @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
5:35 – Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (Class 2) – 2m 5 ½ f
The longest race in the flat racing calendar. Five of the last ten renewals of the race have gone to jumps trainers Gordon Elliott, Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson. Although, there are two recent eyecatchers running and both Cleonte & Corelli could go close if lasting out this marathon trip.
Not normally a race I take much of an interest in.
Recent Eyecatcher’s Running Elsewhere
Ayr
2:00 – Just Hiss
2:00 – Nicholas T
3:45 – Harome
Newmarket
5:15 – Revich
5:15 – Vegas Boy
Cheers
John