Hi all,
Royal Ascot is turning into a bit of a nightmare trying to second guess the weather with more torrential downpours hitting the course on Wednesday.
Three placed efforts going into the final race on day 2. Liberty Beach 4th, Stylehunter 4th & Kynren 5th, all landed the each-way part of the bets at double figure odds. However, we are still waiting for our first winner!
Fingers crossed the weather is set to be mainly dry for the rest for the meeting but who can we really trust the British Weather.
Thursday June 20th – Royal Ascot – Day 3
2:30 – The Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) – 5f
Aidan O’Brien saddles King Neptune and Mount Fuji. The latter is the choice of Ryan Moore and the Dark Angel colt won on his racecourse debut at Cork 29-days ago. He’s open to further progress than his stablemate and should go well. The stable have now had two juvenile winners at the meeting.
Sunday Sovereign, trained by Pat Twomey is the bookies ante-post favourite after impressive wins at the Curragh and Tipperary. However, favourites don’t have a great record in the race in the past ten years – 0 winners from 11 runners 3 placed while second and third favourites are performing much better than market expectations.
Real Appeal, trained by Matthieu Palussiere, made it 3 wins from 4 runs when winning Maisons-Laffitte Listed race 20-days. He’s now in new ownership. The colt’s form is as good as any on offer but he’s vulnerable to any improvers in the field.
Verdict: Given the likely going not a race to get to carried away but Mount Fuji can give his backers are run for their money.
Mount Fuji – 9/1 @ Coral & BetVictor – each way – (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
3:05 – The Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2f
Anything trained by Sir Michael Stoute needs noting. Look for horses rated 103+ and are first or second in the betting.
Sir Michael saddles Sangarius who made a pleasing seasonal reappearance to King Of Comedy at Sandown last month. The slightly easier ground could well suit the colt and he’s got to be high on the shortlist.
Ante post favourite is the Aidan O’Brien trained Cape Of Good Hope. The colt was 4th of 15 in the Prix Du Jockey Club, last time out. He drops into Class 3 company and looks the one that all must beat. However, soft ground would be a big concern.
King Ottoker so impressive at Newbury two starts back ran poorly when only 4th to Sir Dragonet in the Chester Vase. Didn’t seem to stay 1m 4f at Chester so the drop-in trip will be in his favour. He’s better than his Chester run and needs respecting on ground that will suit.
Verdict: I hope the going doesn’t dry up too much as far as King Ottoker is concerned. It may also pay to have a saver on Sangarius who might not want it to soft.
King Ottoker – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
Sangarius – 8/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
3:40 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) – 1m 4f
Looking at the key trends. Irish trained winners have won the race six times. A low draw is a definite advantage as is a top five position in the betting.
Aidan O’Brien has won three of the last ten renewals of the race, including last year with Magic Wand. He has supplemented recent Oaks third Fleeting in the race and that filly will take all the beating on form.
John Gosden saddles four of the eleven declared runners. Frankie Dettori has opted for recent Newbury third Star Catcher. However, the best of the Gosden runners could turn out to be Sparkle Roll. The filly had impressed when winning at Sandown on her seasonal reappearance. She was then sent off the 7/4 favourite for the Musidora at York. Sadly, for her backers she ran well below par in finishing 7th of 10. The daughter of Kingman is surely better than her York form where she might have been unsuited to the quick ground. The step up to 1m 4f and some ease in the ground will hopefully see her in a better light.
Verdict: Fleeting will be tough to beat if she replicates her Oaks form. But with the ground on the soft side I’m happy to take a chance that Sparkle Roll can bounce back to form after her York disappointment.
Sparkle Roll – 22/1 @ Bet365 – each way
4:20 – The Gold Cup (Group 1) – 2m 4f
Last year’s winner Stradivarius is the one they all have to beat on known form. Which of his ten rivals can give him a race?
Dee Ex Bee, trained by Mark Johnston won the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes here last month and has since gone onto win at Sandown. He looks the most likely to dethrone the Champion Stayer if he stays the extra 4f of today’s race. Has form on soft ground.
Aidan O’Brien’s recent record in the race- 4 winners from 10 runners 7 placed – means his runners need respecting. He runs three in Capri, Flag Of Honour, & Cypress Creek. Capri had some smart middle-distance form to his name and was 5th to Enable in last year’s Arc. His 3-year-old form was top-class, winning the Irish Derby in 2017 & the Doncaster St Leger that year. He has run poorly on both his two starts this season, but this race has likely been the target. Flag Of Honour is the choice of Ryan Moore. He won last year’s Irish St Leger and has finished runner-up to Magical on his three starts in 2019 over an inadequate 1m 2f. Cypress Creek looked a stayer when winning a Naas Group 3 over 2m last September. He’s been down the field over in adequate trip on both this season’s runs. This marathon trip could unlock further improvement in the colt but needs to on form.
French raider Call To The Bar showed his wellbeing when winning a 1m 7f Group 2 at Longchamp 25-days ago. The 5-year-old looked a good stayer in the making when finishing runner-up in the Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak at Chantilly last October. Stamina for 2m 4f must be proved but if he can settle early, he should be fine over the trip. Needs the favourite to underperform to win but appeals as a good each way contender on ground that will suit.
Verdict: Dee Ex Bee could really put up to Stradivarius on soft ground. At the prices I’m going each way on French raider Call To The Bar.
Call To The Bar – 20/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook – each way
5:00 – The Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) – 1m – (straight course)
The first of two competitive handicaps that conclude day three. A field of 32 three-year-old’s go to post and most of them have plenty scope for improvement.
Looking at the key trends in the Race Advisor Royal Ascot Guide. Two positive trends seem to be weight and career runs:
Weight: 8-9 to 9-1 – 8 winners from 142 runners 23 placed
Career Runs: 3 to 6 – 9 winners from 188 runners 32 placed
Given jockey Jamie Spencer’s record in handicaps on the straight mile at Royal Ascot. He’s an eye-catching jockey booking for top weight Dark Vision, trained by Mark Johnston.
The two I like most are King Ademar & Migration, who has sneaked into the bottom of the weights.
King Ademar, trained by Martyn Meade, get the first time cheekpieces which could unlock a but more improvement in the colt. He remains a maiden after four career starts but does tick both the key trends. He was runner-up to subsequent 2,000 Guineas second King Of Change on his seasonal return at Nottingham. He’s up 6lb for that effort 15-days ago but looks to be going the right way and Osin Murphy stays in the saddle. Trainer has had a quiet start to the season but is more than capable of preparing one for a race like this. Stall 16 could be ideal, depending how the track is running. He’s yet to race on soft ground.
Migration, trained by the very much inform David Menuisier, came from behind to win at Newmarket 35-days ago. He did well to win given he was slowly away from the stalls that day and didn’t seem total at home on the track either. He’s only been put up 4lb for that win and although he does need to improve further to win a race like this. I think a mark of 90 is more than workable. A fast run mile over a straight galloping track like Ascot looks ideal for him. Racing out of stall 24 he looks set for a very big run having managed to get into the race.
Verdict: If King Ademar handles on the ground he can give us a good run for our money. Migration has form on good to soft so should be fine on a track that should really suit.
King Ademar – 12/1 @Bet365
Migration – 8/1 @ Ladbrokes
5:35 – The King George V Stakes (Handicap) – 1m 4f
This looks a cracker of a renewal and an even harder puzzle to solve than the previous race, especially with ground likely to be soft or on the slow side of good at best.
Mark Johnson saddles three this year with Sir Ron Priestley (Stall 10) having an ideal profile for the race looking at the trends. The son of Australia has won his last two starts at Ripon and latterly at Haydock. Up 8lb for the latter of those wins but he’s improving with each race and looks to have a decent draw in stall 10. First run on a soft ground would be an unknown for this son of Australia but connections seem happy and they have laid him out for the race, they won last year, since the start of the season.
Sinjaari (Stall 22) & Good Birthday (Stall 7) were second & third behind Headman in the 1m 2f London Gold Cup at Newbury. At the revised weights there shouldn’t be much between the pair again. It just depends who improves more for the step up to 1m 4f. The former looks to be better drawn of the pair. Looking at the last five Royal Ascot’s the two 1m 4f Handicaps have been won by horses in the top half of the draw, with runners drawn in the first half of the draw are 0 winners from 91 runners 16 placed. Like with plenty in the field the going would be a bit of an unknown for Sinjaari but Good Birthday did run well at on soft ground as a juvenile and won on good to soft at Newbury back in October.
Ante-post favourite Constantinople (Stall 18), trained by Aidan O’Brien, is a rapidly improving colt who won a 1m 2f Group 3 at the Curragh 27-days ago. The son of Galileo, a brother to Bondi Beach, would be an Irish Derby or St Leger horse if he was to win this under top weight of 9-7. Soft ground would be unknown, and his backers will be hoping it dries out quickly. O’Brien also saddles Eminence (Stall 19), who won a soft ground Leopardstown handicap, over 1m 3f, two starts back, before finishing third at Naas. Needs to improve to defy a mark of 91 but that’s possible given he’s bred to appreciate 1m 4f+.
Easy 1m 2f Ripon novice winner Great Example (Stall 16), could also have a good draw. Another who needs the step up in trip to bring out the improvement needed to win this. The son of Cape Cross has plenty of stamina and soft ground form on the dam side of the pedigree to think it’s possible. Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor won the race with Elite Army in 2014.
Verdict: One of those handicaps where you pick three and still not get one into the first four. My three against the field are Sir Ron Priestley, Great Example & Sinjaari, the latter as much to do with the tremendous form of the William Haggas stable.
Sir Ron Priestley – 13/2 @ Bet365
Sinjaari – 13/2 @ Bet365
Great Example – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
There are no recent eyecatchers running at the other tracks on Thursday.
Just to let you know because of Royal Ascot I won’t be doing a weekly notebook this week. However, there will be one early next week, which will include any eycatchers from Royal Ascot.
Cheers
John