Hi all,
It’s finally here and the gates of Ascot racecourse are about to open on another Royal Ascot. Even for trainer trends followers like me ‘the cream really does rise to the top at a meeting like this’ in particularly the Group races.
What you can expect this week from me? Unlike most tipsters I won’t be picking out the easily found favourites but will continue to look for those value priced winners. I won’t be putting up selections in every race this week and due to time constraints, my race previews will be limited to races where I will be tipping.
Any recent eyecatchers running at other meetings this week will be noted at the end of each days Royal Ascot races. There are two running on Tuesday at Beverley & Thirsk.
The real possibility of torrential rain on Tuesday and Wednesday means this year’s Royal Ascot could be a very tricky one for punters.
Royal Ascot – Day 1 – Tuesday
2:30 – Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
Olmedo won last year’s French 2,000 Guineas. Not up to that level on subsequent runs but his second placed effort in Group 2 was a step back in the right direction. His trainer Jean Claude Rouget is 3 winners from 6 runners 50% +8.5 A/E 2.75 4 placed 67% in non-handicap races at Royal Ascot in the past 5-years.
Verdict: Olmedo is interesting. However, I’m passing this first race. It looks far too tricky and there are plenty of other races to lose your money on over the next five-days.
3:05 – Coventry Stakes (Group 2) – 6f
I put up Royal Lytham as a decent each -way bet in Monday’s Daily Punt column. He comes into the race on the back of decisive winning racecourse debut at Navan. The step up to 6f should suit the son of Gleneagles and he can surprise his better fancied stablemate Arizona. If the rain arrives early and there is plenty of it then Guildsman a soft ground winner at Goodwood could be worth a saver.
Verdict: I will take a punt on Royal Lytham to surprise his well fancied stablemate Arizona. If the going, gets softer then Guildsman would come into the reckoning.
Royal Lytham – 22/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook – each way – (paying 4 places)
3:40 – King’s Stand Stakes (Group 1) – 5f
I’m going to take on the front two in the market Battaash & Blue Point with Mabs Cross, in the hope that there’s some soft in the going description on the straight course. Third in last years renewal, doing her best work at the finish the mare has plenty to find with Battaash on their recent running at Haydock. Hopefully the going will be different and a stiff 5f on rain softened ground should suit her more.
Verdict: I will take Mabs Cross to go two places better than she did last year.
Mabs Cross – 8/1 @ Bet365 & BetVictor
4:20 – The St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
Phoenix of Spain & Too Darn Hot first and second in the Irish 2,000 Guineas renew rivalry. Whilst it wouldn’t surprise me if last season’s best juvenile reversed form with the winner. Of the pair I prefer the claims of Phoenix Of Spain. Besides Too Dar Hot, John Gosden runs King of Comedy who beat Phoenix of Spain on their racecourse debut last July. He’s had the same prep race last time as last year’s winner Without Parole. He could well improve past his better fancied stablemate today.
Of the rest Shaman looks the most interesting at big odds. A winner of his first two starts of this season then went onto finish runner-up to Persian King in the French 2,000 Guineas. Beaten just a length there his effort was noteworthy in that he came out stall 11 and those who finished around him were drawn in single digits. Not sure if that Guineas form is as good as the Irish version but then he’s a bigger price than the Phoenix Of Spain.
Verdict: The most likely winner is Phoenix Of Spain but Shaman looks worthy of some each-way support.
Shaman – 11/1 @ William Hill & Paddy Power – each way
5:00 – The Ascot Stakes (Handicap) – 2m 4f
The only handicap on the card. Given Willie Mullins excellent record in the race not surprisingly that his sole runner in this year’s race Buildmeupbuttercup is the bookies ante post favourite.
However, I’m going to take her on with Mengli Khan and Snow Falcon. The former could be well handicapped on his old flat form when trained by Hugo Palmer. Has become a better horse over the jumps since joining Gordon Elliott.
Noel Meade is better known for his exploits in the NH sphere and his runner Snow Falcon won’t fail for stamina that’s for sure. The 9-year-old who’s lightly raced on the flat 2 win from 7 runs, hasn’t run on the level since October 2017 when down the field on quick ground in the Cesarewitch, he’s better judged on his 2nd of 24 in the Irish Cesarewitch on soft ground, that same month.
Verdict: Buildmeupbuttercup could easily prove to be well handicapped but she’s priced up on the Willie Mullins/Ryan Moore combination rather than her bare form. I can happily take her on with Mengli Khan and Snow Falcon.
Mengli Khan – 6/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral
Snow Falcon – 14/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes – each way (both paying 5 places)
5:35 – The Wolferton Rated Stakes (Listed) – 1m 2f
Magic Wand won the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes here 12-months ago. She has solid claims, but the possibility of the ground easing further would be a negative for her chance.
Riven Light made a highly encouraging return to action when runner-up in Listed race at the Curragh 11-days ago. Might be a 7-year-old but he’s not without a chance here if he gets the forecast strong pace to chase.
Trainer John Gosden is the winning most trainer with 4 winners from 10 runners + 18.75 6 placed. His sole runner this year is Star Of Bengal. The 4-year-old has a bit to find with the principals, but he’s lightly raced, this is just his 5th career start and is open to the improvement he needs to win this. The first time cheekpieces are an interesting addition but Frankie Dettori has stall 15 to overcome.
Both the Roger Varian pair of Willie John & Mountain Angel need respecting and they have single digit draws.
Verdict: Another race that I will give a miss too from a tipping point of view. I would confident of Star of Bengal going close, but his wide draw does temper enthusiasm slightly. Riven Light could get the race run to suit but is vulnerable to an improver. Willie John is a potential improver, but his trainer thinks fast ground is key for the 4-year-old.
Recent Eyecatchers Running:
Thirsk
4:35 – Buckland Boy –
Beverley
8:00 – Ironclad
Cheers
John