I’m going to begin this week’s notebook on a slightly down beat note. This weekend was a disappointing one on the selections in front, indeed 2020 has been a bit of a struggle.
However, it’s worth remembering that things don’t always your way on the betting front. It’s easy to get disheartened or even give up when hitting a losing run.
From my experience of running this service for nearly seven years. I know things turn around. It’s just the nature of the peaks and troughs of being a racing tipster.
Anyway, that’s the negative stuff out of the way. There is plenty to look forward to. We are just three weeks away from the start of the Cheltenham Festival and on Saturday we have the historic Eider Handicap Chase at Newcastle and the 888Sport Handicap Chase at Kempton.
More on the latter two races later in the week.
The weekend’s racing didn’t bring much in the way of eyecatchers. And with the going as testing as it was at Haydock & Ascot. i think the form from both courses on Saturday should be treated with caution going forward.
Grand National Pointers
Let’s begin this week with a look not at the Cheltenham Festival but at the Grand National. The weights for the world’s most famous horse race were published last week and a few horses who could run in this year’s race were in action over the weekend.
So, what did we learn from their runs?
Tiger Roll, last years winner who will be seeking a historic third successive win in the race returned to action at Navan on Sunday in the Boyne Hurdle. It was a solid enough seasonal return to finish 5th but we will know more about him after he runs in the Cross Country at Cheltenham next month.
Ballyoptic showed he relished the mud when winning the Swinley Chase at Aascot on Saturday. He’s a potentially well handicapped horse for the Grand National after this success. However, I don’t see him as Grand National winner as I don’t think he stays much beyond 3m 1f. I know ran well in last years race when falling four out, but I think his stamina was coming to an end at the time. His overall record at Aintree also leaves a lot to be desired.
Ramses De Teillee looks the most interesting of three. His rein broke in last years race so a line can be drawn through that run. He’s had an interesting campaign so far this season with three of his four runs having come over hurdles. Adding a second successive Grade 2 novice hurdle to his CV on Saturday. He could well go for next month’s Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle and wouldn’t be without a chance if the ground was as soft as it was on Saturday at Haydock. But the Grand National must be very much his agenda. Last season his high-class staying handicap chase form included finishing runner-up in Haydock’s Grand National Trial, and he occupied the same spot in the Welsh Grand National. The 8-year-old is all stamina, has good form in big field handicaps and goes well on soft ground. Should he run there’s’ plenty to like about his Grand National claims.
Copperhead Advertises Cheltenham Claims
The best performance on Saturday came from Copperhead in Ascot’s Reynoldstown Novices Chase.
Stepping up in class the 6-year-old stamped himself a smart staying novice chaser in the making with an impressive win. Granted both the front two in the betting Sam Brown & Pym failed to give their running but that shouldn’t take away from a good performance by the winner. The way he jumps, and travels has impressed me both here and last time at Newbury.
Hopefully connections will aim him at the RSA rather than the more stamina demanding National Hunt Chase. He’s 9/1 for the RSA, which looks far better value than the 7/2 available about favourite Champ.
Tracker Horses:
A few horses that could be worth adding to the tracker. They are a mix of all-weather & National Hunt horses this week.
True Belief – Brett Johnson
Has yet to win on his ten starts on the synthetics but has placed six times. Since winning at Windsor in October he’s been beaten less than two lengths in all five starts on the all-weather. He was only beaten a head at Kempton on Wednesday. He did best of those held up and if his jockey had made his effort a faction early, he would probably have won. The 4-year-old will remain on a competitive mark and just needs all the card to fall right to gain that first all-weather success.
Pitcher’s Point – John Gosden
The 3-year-old has improved with each of his three starts. Had no problem with the step up to 1m 2f at Chelmsford on Thursday. Sent into the lead, he was only headed in the final 50yds by eventual winner Da Vinci. The first two pulled clear of the rest so the form looks solid enough. He now qualifies for handicaps and it will be interesting to see what mark he gets.
Greaneteen – Paul Nicholls
One of the best performances of the last week, for me, came from Greaneteen at Fakenham. Twice a winner over hurdles last season. He’s a much better chaser than a hurdler and he made it 3 wins from 3 runs over the larger obstacles with a novice chase success on Friday.
Jockey Harry Cobden was full of praise for the 6-year-old after his win on Sky Sports Racing. Hopefully connections will by-pass Cheltenham with him and go to Aintree as the jockey suggested. One to note for Aintree and he could easily prove up to Grade 1 standard over fences.
Queens Brook – Gordon Elliott
I always take note when a horse put in a good time in a bumper. You couldn’t fail to be impressed visually by the performance of the mare on her debut under rules at Gowran Park on Saturday. A half sister to useful staying handicap chaser Shotgun Paddy. Queens Brook should stay well when she goes over hurdle next season but before then she should be able to hold her own in better bumper races. The 5-year-old won’t be going to Cheltenham but the Mares bumper at the Grand National meeting was mentioned as a possible target by the trainer after Saturday’s race. Wherever she goes next, she’s one to keep on side.
Wiley Post – Tony Carroll
The 7-year-old has returned from a short break to win at Kempton two starts back and arguably ran just as well when 2nd of 10 back at the same venue on Sunday. He didn’t get the clearest of passages when making his effort in the final two furlongs in the straight. He remains unexposed on the all-weather, just the four runs, and can remain competitive in 6f sprint handicaps at Class 4 level.
Ballyadam – Gordon Elliott
Short priced favourite backers got their fingers burnt as he was turned over at 1/4 on his debut under rules in the Navan bumper on Sunday. An expensive purchase at £330,000 after winning an Irish point in October. The 5-year-old travelled like the best horse in the race, but the heavy ground took its toll on his finishing effort from off the pace. I suspect the son of Fame And Glory will prove to be much better than this initial effort when he gets better ground to race on.
My ‘fun’ each way Cheltenham Festival Lucky 15 and a couple at big prices for the Grand National will be with you either tomorrow or Wednesday.
Cheers
John