Hi all,
Day one of three great days racing on the July Course.
Newmarket July Festival
Thursday July 11th – Day 1
1:50 – Bahrain Trophy Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 5f
There is the possibility that Barbados could get an easy lead out in front if he does, he will be hard to peg back. However, Eagles By Day put up a better performance on the figures when 3rd to Japan in the King Edward VII Stakes. He was doing his best work at the finish that day and should be suited by today’s extra furlong. A win here and he will have to be considered a live St Leger contender. I wouldn’t put anyone off having a saver on Nayef Road who just finished behind Barbados in the Queen’s Vase but is almost double the price of his old rival here.
Eagles By Day – 2/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:00 – bet365 Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
It looks like there should be plenty of pace in the race which brings Woven into calculations. He didn’t seem happy making the running at Newcastle 12-days ago. I suspect he will return to more patient tactics today and given he stays further than 6f he could be the one to take advantage should they go too hard up front.
Dazzling Dan, was three places and 2 lengths behind Magical Wish in the York race. He looked to run below the form of his previous win at Newmarket. Maybe the good to soft going or the track didn’t suit day. Either way he didn’t run to his best and a return here will hopefully see him in a better light.
Street Parade, finished one place ahead of filly in that race. He put up a tremendous weight carrying performance off an OR of 101, trying to give 20lb to the winner. First start over 6f for the gelding and if he’s as effective over it, he won’t be far away at the finish.
Two other contenders in the race are Alfie Solomons, who looks to be slowly hitting form he was 4th behind Magical Wish in the York race and filled the same position back here over 5f behind Street Parade & Philipine Cobra 19-days ago. A return to 6f will be in his favour here.
Moss Gill, trained by James Bethall has been a twice winning eyecatcher for us since a good effort at York back in May. Winning a Doncaster novice race at odds on before a comfortable win at Ripon 22-days ago. He’s up 6lb for that win but is an improving handicap sprinter. Stall one slightly tempers enthusiasm, but he needs to be kept onside.
Verdict: I might regret leaving Alfie Solomons & Moss Gill out of the portfolio, but I am just going with Street Parade and Dazzling Dan.
Street Parade -16/1 @ Paddy Power – each way (paying 6 places 1/5 odds) or 14/1 – Gen with bookies paying 5 places
Dazzling Dan – 10/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill – each way
4:40 – A Listed race over a mile for 3-year-olds and despite the decent price money on offer it’s just attracted a field of six runners. Urban Icon, Duke Of Hazzard & Momkin where 4th, 5th and 6th respectably in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. The latter didn’t get the best of runs that day and wasn’t knocked about when his chance had gone. Duke Of Hazzard’s preparation for that race was said to have been interrupted by a foot abscess so could be slightly sharper here. The first-time blinkers have also been enlisted today and trainer Paul Cole has his horses in great form at present. There were no excuses for Urban Icon, but he will at least be better suited by going back up to a mile. Given the form of Paul Cole stable, I ‘m just opting for the Duke Of Hazzard.
Duke Of Hazzard – 9/1 @ Coral & Paddy Power
5:10 – The card concludes with a tricky 1m Class 3 handicap. The Charlie Appleby trained Wings Of Time makes his handicap debut on the back of a C&D second in a novice race 19-days ago. He’s likely to head the market but a mark of 90 looks stiff on what the 3-year-old has achieved so far on his three starts. That said the gelding is open to further improvement.
The 4-year-old Nkosikazi made an encouraging first start since moving to the William Haggas yard when runner-up at Lingfield 19-days ago. If she builds on that promise, she won’t be far away for a trainer whose horses remain in winning form.
Balgair doesn’t hold any secrets from the handicapper but the 5-year-old goes well over C&D with 1 win from 4 runs 3 placed and form figures 7122. All four of his career wins have come on good or quicker ground. He’s 4lb higher than for his C&D winner two starts back. Vulnerable to any improvers in the field but he’s consistent and ticks the key boxes marked going and course & distance.
Ulshaw Bridge, in the same ownership as Moss Gill who runs earlier in the card, hasn’t possibly won as many races as he should have 2 wins from 16 runs 9 placed. The 4-year-old has run well on all three of his starts this season and seems to be reaching peak form after his recent close second at Redcar over 7f. The return to a mile will be in his favour and he looks on a competitive handicap mark. However, will the early pace be strong enough for him as he does seem to be at his best when coming off strong gallop.
Verdict: The consistent Balgair should be there or thereabouts at the finish and if they go a decent gallop then Ulshaw Bridge could run into the places.
Balgair – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power – each way
Ulshaw Bridge – 16/1 @ Paddy Power – each way
Cheers
John