Hi all,
It’s turned into a tough couple of days at both Goodwood & Galway Festivals.
Goodwood Festival – Day 4
2:25 – Biometric beat Turgenev 1 ½ lengths in the Britannia Handicap. He’s now 10lb worse off in this Group 3 race but the selection has only had four career starts and is capable of more progress. Whilst Turgenev has since run disappointingly at Newmarket but does get the first time cheekpieces today. Duke Of Hazzard beat Turgenev & Momkin at Newmarket and there’s no reason why either horse should finish ahead of him. The first-time blinkers worked at Newmarket but will they work a second time?
Biometric – 8/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill
3:00 – Unibet Golden Mile Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
The big betting race of the day and with 20 runners set to go to post it’s a tough puzzle to solve. The draw has been important. In the past 11 years. Runners horses drawn 16 or higher are 0 winners from 57 runners 6 placed in the past 11-years and only two horses have won from a double figure stall – 2 winners from 116 runners 16 placed. Those drawn in a single figure stall are 9 winners from 85 runners 28 placed.
Not many 3-year-olds have managed to get into the race, but they are healthy 4 winners from 19 runners +9 7 placed 37%.
There are two 3-year-olds in this year’s race Beat Le Bon & Dark Vision.
Mojito has been ante-post favourite since making all to win at Sandown after 637-days off the track. Up just 3lb but he remains on a winnable mark. If he doesn’t ‘bounce’ then he’s the most likely winner from a good draw in stall 9. For me he’s plenty short enough now and it may pay to look elsewhere for some value.
Beat Le Bon (Stall 3) – Comes into the race having won his last two starts here over 7f and followed up at Haydock again over 7f. The harder they go in a race the better he is as he showed at Haydock. He’s yet to win over mile but he should stay and looks capable of bit more progress. Perhaps crucially he’s nicely drawn in stall 3.
Dark Vision (Stall 19) – I really fancied him before the draw was made. Osin Murphy has been booked for the Mark Johnston trained 3-year-old. He won the Group 2 Vintage Stakes here last year so has course form. Last time out he was an encouraging 4th of 14. Despite not getting the clearest of runs when making his effort two out, at Newmarket over 1m 2f. The drop back to a mile shouldn’t be a problem as he races in first time blinkers today. The big negative is of course his draw. Osin Murphy will have to ride the colt for luck. If he wins it would be a big ‘trends’ buster.
Indeed (Stall 16) – Is another I really liked before the draw was made.The 4-year-old comes into the race after wins at Chelmsford and latterly at Newmarket. He was value for a bigger margin of victory than 1 ¼ length suggests and his trainer thinks he’s a Group horse in the making. He handled good ground well enough last time but might not want it to quicken up further. Only has a 3lb penalty to carry but that draw will be hard to overcome!
Verdict: Mojito’s claims are there for all to see. Beat Le Bon represents the 3-year-old’s and is also nicely drawn. If it wasn’t for their draws, I would put up both Dark Vision & Indeed but, on this occasion, I will just go with the latter.
Beat Le Bon – 9/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
Indeed – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:15 – The market for this 1m 3f handicap is headed by John Gosden, William Haggas and Roger Varian trained, lightly raced 3-year-olds. Just behind them in the betting could be the value play in the race. Fox Vardy, trained Martyn Meade, is also lightly raced. He still looked green when winning at Windsor on his handicap debut 39-days ago. Has been put up 6lb for that win but the runner-up has won since so the form looks solid. If he handles this unique track, he will go close.
Fox Vardy – 9/1 @Bet365
Galway Festival – Day 5
I am struggling to pick winners at Galway Festival but hope springs eternal as the saying goes.
6:15 – Guinness Galway Blazers Handicap Chase – 2m 6 ½ f
It looks a very strong renewal of this historic handicap chase. My shortlist includes:
Mine Now was second in a Handicap Hurdle her two years ago and last year was a close third in this race 12 months ago, off 1lb lower. This will have been the 11-year-olds target, had a recent run in a charity race on the flat, so will be fully fit in his attempt to go two places better.
Hash Brown twice a winner over C&D back in 2015 & 2016. Last of those wins was his last win and he races off 6lb lower now. Showed he retains ability when runner-up at Kilbeggan two starts back but was disappointing at Limerick 20-days ago. Hopes rest on return to Galway and if he cuts out the mistakes must be considered.
Minella Beau, trained by Willie Mullins, won a beginners’ chase over C&D 12 months ago. Has been a shade disappointing since with form figures 3FPP. Although he was still in contention when falling in the Cork National, sent off 5/1 favourite that day. Has a 218-day layoff to overcome but he’s 3 wins from 4 runs, when returning from a 70+day absence. The 8-year-old looks on a competitive mark
Tesseract trained by Joseph O’Brien completes the shortlist. Not the most consistent of chasers but he did run well when 2nd of 12 in the Midlands National at Kilbeggan 14-days ago. But for a slight mistake at the second last he might well have won that day. The 8-year-old gets the first time cheekpieces which could make all the difference.
Treasure Chest is a stablemate of Tesseract. The 6-year-old is now 2-6 over fences and comes into the race on the back of wins at Clonmel & Roscommon. Step’s up from an extended 2m to 2m 6 ½ f which he isn’t certain to stay on breeding. His jumping will also be tested around here but if the ground stays on the good side and his stamina holds out, then he should be there or thereabouts at the finish.
Verdict: Tesseract should be up to winning a race like this, as should Minella Beau and Mine Now has each way claims.
Tesseract – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Mine Now -16/1 @ Bet365 – each way – (paying 4 places ¼ odds)
6:50 – Guinness Handicap – 1m 4f
With €70,800 on offer to the winner it attracted a good field of horses. Mr Adjudicator is the favourite to win after his 4th of 20 here on Monday. He had a luckless run that day and would surely have won with a clear passage. He’s’ well handicapped but does drop back half a mile in trip. Stablemate Legal Spin finished further back in that race, but he was another who didn’t get much of a run and is better than his final position suggests. He remains open to progress on the flat and maybe better suited to this distance than his better fancied stablemate. He’s got each way claims. Tudor City won the Galway Hurdle on Thursday for Tony Martin but probably won’t run.
The one I do like is War Diary. The 4-year-old has only had the four career starts, winning his last two. Two starts back he won a Clonmel maiden over 1m 1 ½ f before improving to win a valuable Curragh handicap over today’s distance. The handicapper has put him up 5lb for that win but there should be more to come from him over middle distances and he could be a future pattern horse. Stall 11 could have been better, and he might prefer some more juice in the ground. But if he handles the track must be considered a live contender.
Verdict: Mr Adjudicator looks handicapped to win but the drop-in trip might Legal Spin better and he looks each way value. I also like the chances of War Diary.
Legal Spin – 14/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
War Diary – 9/1 @ Paddy Power
Cheers
John