Hi all,
A tough day at the office but at least Sir Dancealot dug us out of a hole when winning the Lennox Stakes for the second year running.
Qatar Goodwood Festival – Day 2
1:50 – Trainer Ian Williams is 3 winners from 12 runners 25% +61 4 placed 33% with his runners in this race since 2008. He saddles two live contenders in The Grand Visir & Zubayr. The former won the 2m 4f Ascot Stakes, not so good drop back down 2m at Newbury, but the return today’s marathon trip should suit. Best form has come with some juice in the ground but should be fine on good. Zubayr had a confidence boosting win over hurdles at Southwell 38-days ago. Hasn’t been the easiest to win with but is on a competitive mark for a return to the flat so needs respecting.
Zubayr – 16/1 @ Paddy Power – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
2:25 – Le Don De Vie, has won his last two starts both at Epsom. Having his first run since switching to the Hughie Morrison stable. The handicapper has put him up 10lb for the last of those wins. Steps up to 1m 4f today but on pedigree should stay. There should be a good pace to chase so it may pay to take a chance with one of the more patiently ridden horses.
Desert Icon came from behind to win on his handicap debut at Salisbury 35-days ago. All his four runs have come on good to firm so yesterday’s rain and with it slightly easier ground will be an unknown for the son of Sea The Stars.
Dubai Tradition has won both his last two starts over 1m4f. Making all at Pontefract and on his handicap debut at Newmarket 18-days ago. The colt has Group entries, including the St Leger, is on the upgrade, just four career starts, but won’t find it easy to dominate here. He’s got a good draw in 5 though which puts him very much in the mix.
Le Don De Vie – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
Dubai Tradition – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
3:35 – Qatar Sussex Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
The race of the day, well at least this side of the Irish Sea. At the prices I’m going to take on the front two in the market with Phoenix Of Spain & Lord Glitters. The former was an impressive winner of the won the Irish 2,000 Guineas on his seasonal reappearance. He holds favourite Too Darn Hot on that running. However, he disappointed when only 6th behind Circus Maximus & Too Darn Hot at Royal Ascot. He’s surely better than that run and I’m hoping he can bounce back here. At 6/1 he looks the value bet of the 3-year-old’s and the bookies seem to have overreacted to his Ascot run.
Lord Glitters, won the Group 1 Queen Anne at Royal Ascot on his last start. The 6-year-old was a close-up 3rd in this race 12 months ago and wouldn’t have been suited by the slow early gallop. Must give weight to three-year-old’s, which won’t be easy. However, the rain that fell on Tuesday will be in his favour and he should get a better pace to chase than last year.
Phoenix Of Spain – 6/1 @ William Hill & BetVictor
Lord Glitters – 7/1 @ Paddy Power
Galway Festival – Day 3
7:20 – thetote.com Galway Plate (Handicap Chase) – 2m 6 ½ f
The race of the day at the Galway Festival, if not the week. Twenty-two runners have been declared to go to post and you can give most of the field some sort of chance. The last four renewals of this great race have gone to Gordon Elliott & Henry De Bromhead. The former saddles five and the latter three this year. Of those eight runners the pair I like most are the Henry De Bromhead trained Poker Party & Barra trained by Gordon Elliott. The former was going to win comfortably when falling at the last in the Midlands National at Kilbeggan and looks to be on a winnable mark if she’s recovered. The 8-year-old has plenty of back class, finished third in the Coral Cup last year and was runner-up to Let’s Dance in the Mares Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in 2017. Will stay the trip and must be respected.
Poker Party is an interesting second season chaser and the 7-year-old won twice at Naas back in January & February. He ended last season with a good third placed effort in a valuable novices’ handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival. Is now 10lb higher than at Naas but has scope for more progression this season. Yet to race beyond 2m 5f over fences but gives the impression today’s step up in trip will suit.
Of the rest I like Snugsborough Benny. The 9-year-old won the Galway Blazers over C&D at last years Festival off 16lb lower and ended last season when 4th of 30 in the Irish Grand National. Today’s drop in trip will suit him more and he should get a good pace to chase. Had recent spin over hurdles which should put him spot fitness wise.
Regal Encore is well handicapped on his best form, 6lb lower than his last win, but may find the trip a bit on the short side.
Pravalaguna is more interesting. The Willie Mullins trained mare was in the lead and very much in contention when coming down four out in the Punchestown race that Poker Party finished third in. The 7-year-old has had two runs over hurdles since that mishap. Her jumping will be tested here but if she can cut out the mistakes that usually end her race, she’s got a chance.
Snugsborough Benny – 12/1 @ William Hill & Paddy Power
Barra – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Betway
Poker Party – 18/1 @ Bet365 – each way (paying 4 places ¼ odds)
Cheers
John