Hi all,
Apart from Elarqam finishing third in the Juddmonte International it was a poor start to the Ebor Festival. However, it’s marathon not a sprint so we have plenty of time to make a profit.
I’m at York for the next two-days and today is my first chance to see Enable in the flesh.
Waking up to grey sky’s and there look like there has been a shower or too overnight. Fingers crossed the sun will come out.
At least the showers will have freshened up the ground but most of today’s selections wouldn’t want any more rain to fall.
York Ebor Festival – Day 2
1:55 – Liberty Beach sets the standard and will be a tough nut to crack. Under The Stars is unbeaten on both her starts and last time out caused a bit of a surprise when winning an Ascot Group 3 (25/1) over today’s distance. She’s capable of more progress and will be there or thereabouts.
Under The Stars – 9/2 @ Paddy Power or 4/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill
3:00 – The first of the day’s three handicaps with a field of 20 declared to go to post for this Class 2 mile handicap.
Kynren can be relied on to run well in these big field 7f/1m handicaps without winning. He pays for his consistency and is 4lb higher than when finishing runner-up in this 12 months ago. The 5-year-old deserves to win a nice pot but looks plenty short enough in the betting.
Seniority was a shade unlucky in the run when 4th of 2o in the Golden Mile Handicap at Goodwood on his last start. He’s 3lb higher than his last winning mark but won’t be far away here.
One place behind Seniority in the Goodwood race was Baltic Baron. The 4-year-old also failed to get a clear passage when making his effort on the inside. He’s got the ability to win a race like this off his present mark but does need all the cards to fall right to do so. Trainer David O’Meara won this race in 2016 & 2013 and both his winners met all the above trends as does Baltic Baron.
Vale Of Kent is a typical Mark Johnston horse tough and stand his racing well. The 4-year-old won the Bunbury Cup over 7f last month, off 5lb lower. He was then down the field in the International Stakes at Ascot, probably not suited by the rain softened ground, but bounced back to form to finish runner-up in the Golden Mile Handicap at Goodwood. Given he was drawn out in 17 that day he did well to finish as close as he did. Up 3lb does make life tougher and he maybe better over 7f. He should remain competitive.
Arbalet was another not suited to the soft ground in the International Stakes, a race he had finished runner-up in the previous season on good to firm. The Hugo Palmer trained 4-year-old is 0 wins from 3 runs when racing beyond 7f although on pedigree he should stay the distance. His career best on Racing Post Ratings came here 12 months ago when a 2 ½ length third to Expert Eye in the Group 3 City Of York Stakes over 7f. On a winnable handicap mark for a trainer who won this race in 2014 and had the runner-up in 2017.
Petrus won his first two starts this season at Doncaster & Bath before finishing 4th of 14 at Newbury. Doing best of those held up that day. No show in the Hunt Cup but the soft ground wouldn’t have suited him so he can be forgiven that poor run. Showed that running was all wrong back on faster ground when running on to grab third behind Mojito at Sandown 47-days ago. Just 2lb higher than for his last win he can go well here and according to trainer Brian Meehan he missed Goodwood for this race.
Petrus – 14/1 @ William Hill & Paddy Power – each way (both paying 5 places)
Arbalet – 22/1 @ Coral & Paddy Power – each way (both paying 5 places)
4:15 – Not the strongest renewal of the Galtres Stakes. The market is headed by the Dermot Weld trained Search For A Song who finished 4th in the Irish Oaks last month. This is just her 4th career start and she remains’ open to further progress. At the prices my preference is for Vivionn. The daughter of Dubawi looked a shade unlucky not to win a Goodwood handicap 22-days ago. She steps up to 1m 4f for the first time which looks worth a go. The 3-year-old was doing her best work at the finish last time and her full brother Ispolini won over 1m 6f at Meydan over the winter. There are grounds for optimism that she could find improvement for the new distance.
Vivionn – 17/2 @ William Hill & Coral – each way
4:50 – A 20-runner fillies handicap to end the day. It’s a tricky race where there are plenty of contenders the two, I like most are Salayel & Chaleur.
The Roger Varian trained Salayel is an interesting runner. The 3-year-old had been running on the dirt at Jebel Ali & Meydan over the winter. Did well on her first start for Roger Varian ,when 2nd off 11 to California Love at Newmarket’s July Festival. He was sent off the 7/2 favourite that day and was only beaten a head at the finish. The handicapper has put her up 6lb for that effort, but she’s remains on a competitive mark.
Chaleur, trained by Ralph Beckett, built on the promise of her Newmarket return when an eyecatching 3rd of 11 at Goodwood over a mile 23-days ago. Slight negative that she’s dropping back in trip today but if they go a decent pace, she should be fine. At least the quick ground will suit her and a win doesn’t seem too far off.
Salayel – 7/2 – Gen
Chaleur – 10/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John