Hi all,
Cheltenham Festival 2019 – Day 3
The forecast storm force winds didn’t materialise so the threat to Day 2 of the meeting disappeared and racing went ahead.
I said Wednesday’s notebook would be shorter than Tuesday’s, but It didn’t pan out as I expected and was almost as long.
Have no fear, todays will be!
1:30 – JLT Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (Registered as The Golden Miller) (Class 1) – 2m 4f
The race was first run in 2011 and last years race was the first to be run on soft ground. Only ten have been declared to go to post but it’s one of the difficult non-handicap puzzles to solve.
Looking at the tends seven of the last eight winners of the race, or 88% of the winners from 24% of the total runners shared the following traits:
Horses Age: 6yo to 7yo
Runs In Previous 90-day’s 2 or 3
Days Since Last Run: 31 to 60
Runs At Track: 1+
Using the above trends shows how tight the race is six of today’s field remain qualifiers.
Verdict: One who ticks all the above boxes is Defi Du Seuil, he also ticks the boxes marked going and course. Looks the one to beat.
Defi Du Seuil – 3/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:20 – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5yo+) – 3m
The first of three handicaps on Day 3. All three of which look tough races to call.
Looking at the trends nine of the last eleven winners or 82% of the winners from 41% of the total runners shared the following.
Last time Out Placing: First Four
Days Since Last Run: 11 to 75 days
Handicap Hurdle Wins: 0 to 2
Samburu Shujaa, Not Many Left & Coole Cody all meet the above trends. The first named has won his last two starts over hurdles. Going from the front has really suited the 6-year-old whose only up 7lb for his last win.
Not Many Left, is one of two runners trained by Jessica Harrington, the other the well fancied Walk To Freedom. Not Many Left is improving with racing and last time out won a Huntingdon qualifier 48-days ago. Up just 4lb for that win but there should be more to come if he handles the rough and tumble of this big field.
Coole Cody, another possible pace angle. The 8-year-old won a handicap hurdle here back in November 2017. That win came on soft ground so no problem with underfoot conditions for him. Bounced back to something like his best when 2nd of 16 in a valuable 2m 7 ½ f Sandown handicap hurdle last month. Slight concern about his stamina for a strongly run 3m and he won’t get an uncontested lead.
Aaron Lad, twice a winner on soft ground, the 8-year-old improved with each of his three starts this season, winning at Market Rasen two starts back before going onto win over C&D in December. Up 9lb but looks progressive and can go well.
Sire Du Berlais was an eyecatcher when staying on into 6th in one of the qualifiers at Leopardstown on his last start. After that run I mentioned in the notebook that 20/1 available was great each way value. Hopefully some of you got at that price as he’s now a best priced 6/1. Cheekpieces go on for the first time and looks the one to beat even if his price has gone.
Champers On Ice, was an eyecatcher after his last run when finishing 4th at Haydock 26-days ago. No issues with the going or the track for the 9-year-old who will strip fitter for his run for for 14 months. Trainer won this race in 2010 & 2011.
Verdict: Not Many Left, is progressive and could be the pick of the Harrington pair. Sire De Berlais is a solid contender but his price has now long gone. Champers On Ice, should have benefited form his recent return from a layoff and has each way claims for David Pipe. Coole Cody & Samburu Shujaa clearly need respecting, but the front runners could be vulnerable at the finish. Aaron Lad looks to have been saved for this and the C&D winner could still be ahead of his mark.
I will add the three below to many post bet on Sire De Berlais.
Champers On Ice – 16/1 @ Coral – each way – (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
Not Many Left – 16/1 @ Coral & Paddy Power – each way – (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
Aaron Lad – 14/1 @ Paddy Power – each way – (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
2:50 – Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy) (Grade 1) – 2m 4 ½ f
A cracker of a renewal but not a betting race for me and I haven’t looked at the race in detail.
3:30 – Sun Racing Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m
I was thinking about going with last year’s runner-up Supasundae who goes in the first-time tongue tie today. Not sure the recent rain has helped him stay to win over 3m.
4:10 – Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4 ½ f
Nine of the eleven last winners of the race or 82% of the winners from 31% of the total runners had the following:
Best in Three Runs: 1st or 2nd
Handicap Chase Wins: 0 to 2
Runs At The Track: 0 to 3
Headgear: None
There are four qualifiers from the trend’s analysis:
Janika, top weight but has a touch of class. Beaten a head by Siruh Du Lac over C&D on his last run. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again.
River Wylde, like Janika trained by Nicky Henderson. The 8-year was 3rd in the Supreme back in 2017. Lacks experience for a race like this, just the three start over fences, but looks capable of winning off this mark sooner rather than later. Soft ground would be a slight concern first run since falling at Haydock back in November.
Azzerti, trained by Alan King, was very much still in contention when falling three out over C&D at the Trial’s meeting. Had his confidence restored when beating two rivals at 1/10 in novices chase at Ludlow. The 7-year-old looks on a competitive mark if he avoids silly errors.
Didero Vallis, looked a progressive handicap chaser when winning at Carlisle & Haydock. Disappointed at Kempton when stepped up to 3m at Kempton 19-days ago. Whether he didn’t stay 3m or found the ground too quick I am not sure. That was his first start for 55-days so he could just have needed the outing. Drops back to 2m 4 ½ f should be fine. Trainer Venetia Williams won this race in 2009 & 2013 so the 6-year-old needs respecting.
Of the rest. King’s Odyssey, a previous C&D winner was 3rd in this race last year, Races off 2lb lower today but has to be respected back on a track he really likes. The 10-year-old needs all the cards to fall right to win and remains vulnerable to any progressive horses in the race. The more testing the ground the more his chance is enhanced.
Verdict: I think it may pay to draw a line through Didero Vallis run at Kempton given his trainers record in the race. Azzerti is another going the right way and can go well. King’s Odyssey, third in this last year, has that all important festival form and has each way claims.
Didero Vallis – 20/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Azzerti – 16/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
King’s Odyssey – 25/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
4:50 – National Hunt Breeders Supported By Tattersalls Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m 1f
Not a race I have looked at.
5:30 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 2f
The handicaps don’t become any easier with 24 runners declared to go to post Looking at the trends. Eight of the last eleven winners, or 72% of the winners from 26% of the total runners shared these five traits:
Horses Age: 7yo to 9yo
Weight: Top Weight or Within 13lb.
Highest Class Run: Grade 1 or 2
Days Since Last Run: 16 to 90 days
Handicap Chase Wins: 0 to 2
You would have thought those trends would have cut the shortlist down to a manageable four or five runners but in fact there are 10 remaining qualifiers.
One qualifier is the Ted Walsh trained Any Second Now who has probably been trained at the race. He remains winless over fences, but I think there is more to come from him. Top amateur Derek O’Connor take the ride.
Another trends qualifier is the Gordon Elliott trained Its All Guesswork. The 7-year-old was still in contention when falling at the last in the Munster National two starts back. Returned from a 129-day break with a 3rd placed effort over hurdles 22-days ago. Should be spot on fitness wise for today.
Of the rest Speaker Connolly was a recent eyecatcher when 3rd at Leopardstown. The 6-year-old looked in need of more of a stamina test that day so should be suited by the step up in distance. Looks on a competitive mark but needs to cut out the silly mistake, or he won’t get around.
Verdict: I think Speaker Connolly can win a nice pot off his present mark but does need to jump better. Any Second Now and Its All Guesswork are also capable with the latter progressing nicely.
Any Second Now – 10/1 @ William Hill & BetVictor
Its All Guesswork – 10/1 @ Ladbrokes
Speaker Connolly – 14/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds) or 12/1 @ Coral & William Hill – each way – (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available
All selections win only unless indicated as each way.
Good luck with your bets.