Hi all,
Hopefully the sunny weather will continue for Gold Cup Day at Ayr. There’s also a competitive looking card at Newbury where the highlight is the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes for the 2-year-olds. Let’s begin at Ayr.
Ayr Gold Cup Festival – Day 3
2:00 – Irreverent won here over 7f back in June. The 3-year-old put in a career best when winning at Thirsk 14-days ago. He’s up just 3lb for that success and should be suited by a stronger gallop and a bigger field than he faced at Thirsk. Interestingly trainer Richard Fahey opts the first time cheekpieces today. Irreverent probably needs to improve a bit further to win this but the first-time headgear could elicit that improvement.
Boston George was an eyecatcher when finishing 6th of 16 in a competitive handicap at York on his last start. Held up in a moderately run race wasn’t really the place to be and his effort there was better than his final position suggests. The 3-year-old has only had the six career starts and could be capable of a bit more improvement if the first time cheekpieces have the desired effect.
1pt win – Irreverent – 11/2 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Boston George – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:40 – The Gold Cup consolation race. Looking at yesterday’s Bronze Cup being drawn stands side wasn’t really the place to be. But who knows if the racecourse has watered overnight in attempt to even things out a bit?
You can make good cases for favourite Alkaraama and recent Thirsk runner-up Lahore, but they are well found in the market. So, I’m looking for some value either side of the track here.
Rathone is drawn in stall 21. The 3-year-old won his first two starts of this season at Pontefract & Leicester. He has disappointed on his last three starts but looks to have been trained for the race by Kevin Ryan and should be suited by a strongly run 6f on drying ground. He’s just 4lb higher than for his last win and can outrun his odds
Drawn in stall 1 is Royal Residence. The 4-year-old was runner-up in last years Bronze Cup (Heavy) but showed he doesn’t need rain softened ground to go well when winning at Yarmouth on good to firm in July, off 4lb lower. He’s run well enough on both his last starts to think he remains in good form to think he’s got each way claims here.
0.5pts each way – Rathbone – 40/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
0.5pts each way – Royal Residence – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both 5 places 1/5 odds)
3:45 – The Ayr Gold Cup. In all truth it’s hard to look beyond the favourite Buffer Zone (21) who won the valuable sprint handicap at the Curragh on Sunday. Gets a 5lb penalty for that success which makes him a well handicapped horse if reproducing his best form after such a quick turnaround. He should get a good tow into the race on his side from Major Jumbo. Probably a Group horse running in a handicap but just a nagging concern that race may come to soon. I hope I’m wrong as he one of my two selections for the race.
Of those drawn low Hey Jonesy (8) & Laugh A Minute (5) look interesting in the first-time headgear. The former was beaten just 2 lengths in last year’s Commonwealth Cup and beaten 3 ¼ lengths into 9th in Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot, off 3lb higher than today. Gets the first-time visor today which needs to have the desired effect but if it works, he got a decent chance for Kevin Ryan who knows what’s required to win the race.
Laugh A Minute, trained by Roger Varian, has been running consistently in listed company without winning this year. The 4-year-old ran too bad to be true at Hamilton on his handicap debut 64-days ago. If you excuse that run, he looks on a competitive mark, looks the sort to be suited by a big field handicap and the first-time blinkers have been enlisted today.
2pts win – Buffer Zone – 6/1 @ Paddy Power or 11/2 @ Ladbrokes & Coral
0.5pts each way – Hey Jonesy – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (Coral & Ladbrokes (both 5 places 1/5 odds)
Newbury
3:30 – Thirteen go to post for this competitive 1m 2f handicap. The improving Forest Of Dean is 5lb higher than when at York but the 3-year-old remains open to further improvement and is the one to beat.
The two main dangers to the favourite could be Caradoc and Migration. Caradoc, a winner two starts back at Windsor, then finished 3rd of 16 at York when stepped up to 1m 4f. The drop down to 1m 2f shouldn’t be a problem and he remains on an upward curve.
Migration, a winner over today’s distance at Sandown two starts back. He was then sent off the 9/4 favourite returned to that venue 21-days ago. Made up a lot of ground from the rear that day and looked like he would repay his supporters when taking it up inside the final furlong but his effort to get to the front just told on the 3-year-old in the final 50yds and he had to settle for the runners-up spot. Up 3lb today but remains a horse capable of winning a race like this. He just needs to be produced as close to the line as possible. He looks a solid each way alternative to the favourite.
1pt each way – Migration – 13/2 @ Paddy Power & William Hill
Cheers
John