Hi all,
Unlike last week where there didn’t seem to be much in the way ante post value. There looks to be more this week.
There’s a couple of competitive looking cards at Ascot where the feature race is the Grade 3 Betfair Exchange Trophy a handicap hurdle over 1m 7 ½ f.
There’s also a good supporting card of races including the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle, the listed Silver Cup Handicap Chase and the Class 2 Plymouth Gin Handicap Chase.
Up in the north west Haydock stages a seven-race card with the feature race being the Class 2 Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase over 3m 1 ½ f.
The going at Ascot at the time of writing this (17/12) is soft and with plenty of rain being forecast before post time it seems unlikely that the going will dry out much before racing on Friday.
The going is heavy at Haydock and although less rain is forecast for the Lancashire venue it’s hard to see the track being much better than heavy come start of racing on Saturday.
Saturday December 21st
For now, I have left the Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap Hurdle but there will be selections for that race on Friday evening. Let’s begin at Haydock.
Haydock
2:40 – Betway Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 1 ½ f
The ante post market leader is the Venetia William trained Yalltari who will be having his first start since finishing third in the Reynoldstown Novices Chase at Ascot back in February. He also holds an entry in the Silver Cup at Ascot.
Vintage Clouds is better than he’s been able to show on his two starts this season. Last time didn’t seem to enjoy the Aintree national fences when pulling up in the Becher Chase. He’s better judged on his 2nd of 24 in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. The return to Haydock is in his favour 2 wins from 9 runs at the course and has only been out the first three once.
The Hollow Ginge is less exposed over fences than Vintage Clouds, just the three starts winning at Worcester in September on his debut before running Plan Of Attack to a head at Aintree a month later. Not so good here when 3rd of 5 in Graduation Chase but that was on good to soft and he looks a better horse in the mud – 2 wins from 5 runs on heavy. He won a 2m 7 soft ground handicap hurdle at this meeting 12 months ago and has likely been targeted at the race.
1pt win – Vintage Clouds – 9/1 @ William Hill
1pt win – The Hollow Ginge – 8/1 @ William Hill
Ascot
1:50 – Plymouth Gin Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 3f
Mr Medic a winner of this race in 2017 and 2 wins from 5 runs at Ascot. He returned to action when finishing 4th of 7 here 29-days ago. Trainer Robert Walford has his horses in better from now than was the case when Mr Medic ran last time and it also looks like the gelding probably needed the run last time. Granted his best form has come on a sounder surface than he’s likely to get on Saturday but at 16/1 he looks overpriced to me.
1pt each way – Mr Medic – 16/1 @ BetVictor (paying 3 places ¼ odds)
3:00 – Dave Dawes Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 3m
Belami Des Pictons not surprisingly heads the ante post market for this race. The 8-year-old’s 4th of 17 in the BetVictor Gold Cup was an eye-catching one and the handicapper has dropped him 1lb since Cheltenham. It’s no secret these Saturday handicap chases are race trainer Venetia Williams likes to target. He looks a solid favourite off his current mark of 145. Was given an entry in the King George VI which suggests he’s highly regarded. The early 6/1 has gone but he still rates a shade of value at around 4/1.
Kildisart is another strong contender. The Ben Pauling trained gelding won a graduation chase at this meeting 12 months ago, over 2m 5f. The 7-year-old went on to win handicap chases at Cheltenham and at the Aintree Grand National Festival, off 7lb lower. A little disappointing when a well beaten 3rd of 4 behind Lostintranslation at Carlisle on his seasonal return although the trainer has said in the past the horse is hard to get fit, so he probably needed the run. Might be better over further but the soft ground will bring his stamina in to play, his Aintree win came over 3m 1f, and he goes well around here. Of more concern than the drop in distance would be the trainer’s form this autumn.
1pt win – Belami Des Pictons @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Kildisart – 7/1 @Ladbrokes
It’s worth noting that should there be any non-runners they will be replaced by suitable alternatives. And other races could be added in the Saturday racing email.
Cheers
John