Hi all,
First, of what will be a regular feature looking at ante-post bets for the big races of the winter jumps season, including my Cheltenham Festival portfolio.
My first three ante post selections are below. The first two are for the upcoming Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury. The second selection is for the Champion Chase at next years Cheltenham Festival.
Ladbrokes Trophy – Newbury – November 30th, 2019
The race which many older punters still refer to as the Hennessey Gold Cup.
Twelve months ago, I was very keen on the chances of the Alan King trained Dingo Dollar and I’m equally as keen on one for this year’s renewal of this historic staying handicap chase.
Here’s a brief betting preview of the race. Starting with last season’s race fancy Dingo Dollar.
Dingo Dollar – I wouldn’t put anyone off the 7-year-olds chance again at 33/1. Twelve months ago, he ran a fine race, jumping well from the front and was only beaten three out before eventually finishing 3rd of 12. Granted he didn’t really build on that fine effort on three subsequent starts last season and was pulled up when sent off the 5/2 favourite at Cheltenham in April.
He ran well in the same prep race as last year when 3rd of 9 over hurdle at Newbury at the start of the month. As Alan King said in his recent Racing Post Stable Tour “He’s not a proper winter horse as he doesn’t want bottomless ground and he’s best going left-handed”.
Last year’s Ladbroke Trophy was run on soft ground so should this year’s renewal be run on good or good to soft he could easily run into the places again although it must be said this does look tougher.
On The Blind Side – The 7-year-old, trained by Nicky Henderson,is an interesting contender. In the trainers Racing Post Stable Tour he said of On The Blind Side: “He ran a good race at Ascot on Saturday, but is still a little timid in behind horses, so Nico was very keen to give him plenty of daylight. He finished his race encouragingly, so I’m pleased with that and see him as a stayer. We could look at the Ladbrokes Trophy”.
He finished 4th of 16 behind the well handicapped Vinndication over 3m at Ascot last time and shapes like the extra distance of the Ladbroke Trophy will really suit. He beat subsequent Bet365 Gold Cup winner Talkischeap in a Kempton novices’ chase early in the year.
The trainer could also run ante-post race favourite Ok Corral but if he does improve On the Blind Side could be a nicely handicapped staying chaser. Best form over fences & hurdles has so far come on good to soft. At a best priced 20/1 he will appeal as a lively each way contender for a trainer who has done well in the race in the past.
Da Rasher Counter – Trained by Emma Lavelle and like On The Blind Side is a second season chaser. The 7-year-old got better with experience over fences last season beating Walt here last December before ending last season with a 3m heavy ground success at Uttoxeter in March off 9lb lower. In between those two wins he was runner-up Now McGinty, trying to give 6lb, who boosted that form when running Santini to head on his recent seasonal reappearance.
The best of last seasons form means he comes into the Ladbroke Trophy of what looks a workable mark off 149. The son of Yeats has yet to race beyond 3m but gives of the impression he will stay further. He’s been nicely backed for the race but the 16/1 still available looks each way value to this pundit.
Verdict: Dingo Dollar, On The Blind Side and De Rasher Counter interest me most for the race at the time of writing. De Rasher Counter and On The Blind Side are my each way selections, but I doubt he will be my only bets in the race.
1pt each way – De Rasher Counter – 16/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)
1pt each way – On The Blind Side – 16/1 @ Bet365 & BetVictor (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)
Champion Chase – Cheltenham Festival 2020
My first foray into next year’s Cheltenham Festival ante post betting.
On Saturday we shall see if Altior is heading for further than 2m this season. Altior has won the last two Champion Chases and although he’s likely to be aimed at the 3m King George VI Chase at Kempton should he win at Ascot on Saturday. Uncertainty as to what race he will go for at the Cheltenham Festival means he can still be backed at 5/1 with William Hill for the Champion Chase. That seems a crazy price for a horse of his star quality.
He’s also that price because the ante-post favourite for the race is Chacun Pour Soi. The Willie Mullins trained 7-year-old, won both his starts for the trainer last spring. He was particularly impressive when beating Defi De Seuil by over four lengths in the Grade 1 novice chase at the Punchestown Festival.
Defi De Seuil last years JLT Novices’ Chase winner. Looks like he will be staying over 2m this season after an impressive seasonal return when winning the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham. The 6-year-old goes so well at Cheltenham that he has to be considered a strong contender at the Festival for either the Champion Chase or the Ryanair Chase. We will know which race he heads to after next months Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown. Hopefully it will be the Champion Chase for the gelding. Given his course and Cheltenham Festival record he looks to have an outstanding each way claims at 10/1.
Verdict: Chacun Pour Soi could be a special 2m chaser in the making and could easily give Willie Mullins an elusive win the Champion Chase but for me he has prove himself on a track like Cheltenham which both Altior and Defi De Seuil don’t. It’s the latter each way for me but I wouldn’t put anyone off Altior at 5/1 either.
1pt each way – Defi De Seuil – 10/1 @ William Hill
Cheers
John