Hi all,
Like most racegoers I want the ground to be as quick as possible for the days feature race the Group 1 Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes (3.35). Mind you that may not transpire with one weather app I use forecasting as much as 8mm of rain on Thursday evening. I’m writing this on Thursday before racing so its case of praying that I manage to get the going right.
York Ebor Festival – Day 3
Lonsdale Cup
Stradivarius unbeaten on six starts at York bids for a seventh success in the Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup Stakes (2.25). It’s possible he could take on old rival Trueshan. However, the ground will determine if the latter takes his place in the line-up. Connections of Trueshan decided to roll the dice at Goodwood on good to firm ground. If the forecast rain does arrive the ground should be easier than at Goodwood.
All eyes on the Stardivarious/Trueshan rematch. However, with good ground in the offing I’m going to take the pair on with the steadily improving Quickthorn. The 5-year-old has made all to win Group 3 at Sandown and Group 2 at Longchamp. He seems likely to get his own way out in front again and shouldn’t be far away.
Gimcrack Stakes
The third Group race on a cracking card also see the speedy colts & geldings do battle the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (3.00). First established in 1846 its one of the oldest races run at York. The owner of the winning horse is traditionally invited to give a speech at the annual Gimcrack Dinner, which is held at the racecourse in December.
This year’s Gimcrack looks a cracker. Recent Goodwood Group 2 Richmond Stakes winner Royal Scotsman must give 3lb to unbeaten colts Marshman, Noble Style and Clearpoint. Add in improving C&D winner Ask The Paddy and we have the makings of a good race.
Nunthorpe Stakes
The Nunthorpe Stakes is the main reason why I choose the Friday to attend festival. There is something special about hearing and seeing the best 5f sprinters around hurtling down the Knavesmire. Mind you this year’s renewal looks on of the weakest of recent years. Still, it’s a great race to watch and there are layers of intrigue to unravel.
The ante post favourite is recent Listed C&D winner Royal Aclaim. The 3-year-old is a best priced 13/8 at the time of writing. Officially rated only 108 but a low rating like that hasn’t necessarily been an impediment to success. Sole Power won this as a 3-year-old off 104. Mind you he was returned 100/1. Since 2008 four Nunthorpe winners had an OR of 108 or lower and besides Sole Power two others were returned at 40/1. As impressive a winner as she was last time and despite her undoubted potential, she does seem plenty short enough.
The Platinum Queen blitzed her field to win at Goodwood last time and bid to become the first juvenile winner in the last 15-years. Eleven 2-year-old’s have taken advantage of the big weight allowance they get from their elders in the past 14 -years. Mind you only 2015 runner-up Acapulco went off shorter than The Platinum Queen.
There’s a big gap to the next horse in the betting as those fillies dominate the market. Connections of Highland Princess have decided to roll the dice with her. The recent 6 ½ f Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest winner brings some of the best form into the race and she doesn’t lack speed. A genuine Group 1 winner and if she can lay up with pace she will be finishing strongest of all.
Last year’s winner Winter Power has been out of sorts so far this season and she was 4 ½ lengths behind Royal Acclaim last time. It’s hard to believe last year’s winner can be backed at 20/1 with Bet365. If she was to reproduce her best, she wins this.
Winter Power finished 1 ½ length in front of Emaraaty Ana 12 months ago. He then went onto win the Haydock’s Betfair Sprint Cup (6f). However, like Winter Power he’s another who’s been running below last year’s best so far this season.
Dragon Symbol was in great form last summer and ran a cracker to finish within 1 ¾ lengths of Winter Power in last year’s race. The 4-year-old had seemed to have lost his way on first three starts for new trainer Roger Varian. However, he did beat three rivals in Hamilton conditions race last time which can be seen as a step in the right direction.
Khaadem & Raasel were separated by a neck in the Group 2 King George Stakes at Goodwood last time. The latter has been of the most improved 5f sprinters this season. Both deserve to take their chance, but I do wonder if the ground will be quick enough for either.
Besides the three Group 3 races. There are three competitive handicaps and the most valuable maiden race run in Britain the Convivial Maiden Stakes (4:45) which has £41,232 on offer to the winner.
1:50 – Sky Bet Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 4f
I have four on my shortlist, after removing Lord Protector sue to his wide draw.
Mahrajaan gets the first time cheekpieces and has run well here in the past. If the headgear has the desired effect, then he’s competitively weighted.
Recent Chester winner Cormier (1m 2 ½ f) won’t have any issues with the step up to 1m 4f as he’s a previous C&D winner. I think he might want a bit more in the ground.
The steadily progressive Charging Thunder who was a good second at the Shergar Cup last time and the intriguing Amtiyaz complete the shortlist. The former has Ryan Moore in the saddle and provided it doesn’t get too soft he’s going to be there or thereabouts. The latter was in good form over 1m 6f when last seen in action in the summer of 2021. Has a 406-day absence to overcome which is no easy task, but the yard won this in 2020 with a horse returning 445-day layoff so they can prepare one.
4:10 – Assured Data Protection EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 2 ½ f
Amanzoe is an improving filly bids for the four timer after winning a 1m 2 f Ascot classified race 13 days ago. She’s improving and a worthy enough market leader.
State Occasion twice a winner on the all-weather got off the mark at the 8th attempt on grass when winning at Goodwood last time. Up 5lb for that win but remains unexposed over the distance.
The lightly raced Via Sistana looked a very useful filly when winning a valuable fillies’ only handicap at Newmarket (good) last autumn. The 4-year-old makes a belated seasonal reappearance here and could well be trainer Joseph Tuite’s final runner. She looks capable of rating higher than a mark of 97 and should be fit enough but she doesn’t want the ground to be too quick.
5:20 – Sky Bet Mile Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
Leuven Power looked an improver for the step up to a mile when an easy winner at Salisbury 9-days ago. Has a 6lb plenty to carry for that win but is 5lb well in and should go well.
Golden Voice is 3-5 this season and ran just as well in defeat when a ½-length 2nd of 5 to Lion Tower at Redcar last time. The winner just got first run on him that day and although he’s been nudged up 1lb he’s likely remains capable of better. Has been running over 7f but seemed to stay a mile when runner-up over C&D in May.
Operating took advantage of a lenient mark when making a winning handicap debut at Nottingham last month. Up 8lb and in a much better race here but he’s an improving 3-year-old and who has a good chance of landing the hat trick.
Bolthole a winner over 1m 2f at Newmarket in May before disappointing in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot. Was back to his best when a 1½ lengths 3rd of 16 to Ajero at Goodwood (1m 1f) last time. Looked like he was coming with a winning run 1f out that day so the drop back to a strongly run shouldn’t inconvenience him.
System won a Listed race as a 2-year-old and returned to winning ways at Doncaster 15-days ago. Got plenty cover in a strongly run race last time and looks set to get a similar pace scenario here. Up 4lb and vulnerable to any improvers in the field but she’s got each way claims.
Betting Advice:
York
1:50 – 1pt win – Amtiyaz – 12/1 @ Coral and 1pt win – Charging Thunder – 12/1 @ Coral
2:25 – 1pt win – Quickthorn – 14/1 @ Coral & Bet365
4:10 – 1pt win – State Occasion – 5/1 @ Bet365 & Coral and 1pt win Via Sistana -12/1 @ Bet365
5:20 – 1pt win – Golden Voice – 13/2 @ Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Leuven Power – 7/1 @ Coral and 1pt win – Bolthole – 9/1 @ Bet365.
Cheers
John