Hi all,
Straight into the action on day 2 of York’s Ebor Festival. If anything, Thursday’s action is tougher than Wednesday’s card.
York’s Ebor Festival – Day 2
1:50 – Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) – 6f
Nothing original from me here. I don’t think this is the strongest renewal of the race and I think the bookies have got the ante post betting spot on.
Relief Rally so unlucky when only beaten a nose in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot. The filly went one place better when winning Newbury’s Super Sprint last time. She steps up to 6f for the first time but should be suited by the new distance and will take the beating.
Flora Of Bermuda looks held by Relief Rally on their running at Royal Ascot. However, the Andrew Balding filly has since improved to win at Goodwood (soft) 22 days ago. It will be different ground to last time but she’s well worth her place in Group company and like Relief Rally she should stay 6f.
Aidan O’Brien saddled Fairyland to win this in 2018 and he looks to have a good chance with the twice raced Cherry Blossom. The daughter of No Nay Never built on an encouraging racecourse debut when winning a Curragh maiden 12 days ago. She’s a smart filly in the making and It’s interesting that Aidan brings the filly over for the race.
2:25 – Goffs UK Harry Beeby Premier Yearling Stakes (Class 2) – 6f
There’s a maximum field of 22 for the big sales race which has £300,000 on offer in guaranteed prize money. I have to confess that it’s a race that I haven’t looked at in much detail.
Richard Hannon has won this corresponding race five times since 2016. I think the best of them could be Persica. The colt cost £200,000 as a yearling and looked like a nice prospect when winning a Salisbury novice 8 days ago, just three days after a promising racecourse debut. Capbale of further improvement and stall 11 isn’t too bad with most of the pace being low to middle.
Richard Fahey won this in 2018 and the trainer has got big contender in Ziggy’s Condor. The son of Havana Grey is another nice prospect who’s open to improvement on just his second career start.
Dragon Leader won a Salisbury novice on racecourse debut in June and improved again when winning back at that venue 14 days ago. He showed a good attitude to prevail last time which should hold him good stead here. Ryan Moore been booked for the ride, and he should go well from stall 6.
Vantheman got off the mark at the second attempt when winning an Ayr maiden (6f) last month. The colt is bred to be speedy, and he showed plenty of pace to win last time. Needs to have progressed since Ayr but there’s a decent chance that he has.
3:00 – Clipper Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m
I had 11 of the 20 runners on my initial short list for the race earlier in the week which underlines how competitive it is.
It’s hard enough picking the best of O’Meara’s runners never mind the rest. O’Meara has saddled the winner of the race three times since 2013.
Last season he had the winner Blue For You, the second Escobar and the fourth Orbaan. All three are in this year’s line-up.
Both Escobar and Orbaan are 14lb better off with their stablemate today. That’s a decent pull in the weights. Of the pair Orbaan didn’t get the clearest of runs inside the final two furlongs 12 months ago. Mind you neither horse is getting any younger.
Blue For You goes exceptionally well here and has only been out of the first two once in five starts over C&D. Only 9th of 20 at Goodwood last time but better expected today and despite being higher in the weight’s than last year can go close again.
The lightly raced Akhu Najla tops the ante post betting. The 4-year-old won a maiden at Yarmouth last April. Just two subsequent starts last season and he returned from a ten month layoff with an encouraging 1 ½ length 4th of 9 at Ascot last month. Remains capable of better and the forecast strong pace will suit.
Northern Express, twice a winner already this season, is a consistent handicapper who can usually be relied on to give his running in these big field handicaps.
Master Richard won a C&D handicap in the Stewards room at this meeting 12 months ago. He returned to action with a win at Newcastle in May before running poorly at York just 13 days later. Off for 12 weeks he ran much better from the front when a ½ length 2nd of 9 to Gweedore in a Newmarket handicap (7f) on Saturday. Quick ground suits him on turf and Osin Murphy is an eyecatching jockey booking.
3:35 – Pertemps Network Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1) – 1m 4f
Savethelastdance ran out an easy winner of the Cheshire Oaks on soft ground and was sent off favourite for the Oaks on the back of that impressive success. She finished runner-up to Soul Sister at Epsom before showing a tremendous attitude to win the Irish Oaks at the Curragh. Clear chance on form but likley soft ground to win.
Bluestocking a winner of her sole juvenile start. The filly finished runner-up to Warm Heart in a Listed race at Newbury on her seasonal return and then finished third behind the same filly in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot. Looked set to win the Irish Oaks when hitting the front 1f out but was caught close home by Savethelastdance. Looks set for another good run and on better ground can finish in front of the winner here.
Al Husn has carried last season’s progress into this season and has won her last three starts. Last time she was well positioned to win a in a slowly run Group 1 Nassau Stakes (1m 4f) last time. Stamina for 1m 4f to prove but there is no reason on pedigree why she won’t. If she stays she can win this.
Stay Alert is a very useful filly on her day and posted a career best when a 2 length 2nd of 9 in the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes (1m 2f) last month. She stays 1m 3f and should stay 1m 4f provide jockey Osin Murphy can get her settled.
Free Wind is a very useful mare at her best. She won the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks last season and made a winning return to action in the Group 2 Middleton Stakes (1m 2f) here in May. Dsippointing effort in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot and didn’t like heavy ground at Goodwood 18 days ago. The return to better ground will suit the 5-year-old and she could bounce back here.
Rosscarbery was badly hampered 1f out in the Pretty Polly at the Curragh before finishing a 5 length 4th of 9 and found Emily Dickinson too strong when runner-up in a Group 2 (1m 6f) at the Curragh last time. The mare has come up short in Group 1 company in the past, but her trainer Paddy Twomey thinks she can win a race in this grade.
Warm Heart was a big improver in the first part of the season completing the hat trick when winning the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot. Never looked comfortable on testing ground in the Irish Oaks and there’s a good chance she can bounce back for a return to quicker ground.
Novakai a useful juvenile last season who finished runner-up in the Group 1 Filles Mile at Newmarket. She wasn’t quite at her best on her first two starts but appreciated the drop back to Listed company when winning at Newmarket last month. The step up to 1m 4f really suited the 3-year-old last time and she could go well at price.
4:10 – British EBF & Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m 4f
Six of the 13 declared runners for the Listed contest are within 4lb of each other on Official Ratings.
Modaara got off the mark at the second attempt when winning at Chelmsford last October and then improved plenty when winning at Kempton (1m 4f) on her seasonal return in May. She was never travelling when last of 5 in a Group 3 at Haydock when last seen in action 75 days ago. Whether it was the quick ground that was her undoing last time or something else we’ll find out today.
Moracana looked better than ever when winning a Cork Listed race on seasonal return in April and was a 3 length 5th of 18 in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) at Royal Ascot last time. Has a 4lb penalty to carry here but the Irish challenger isn’t out of this if she gets a decent pace to chase which seems likely.
One Evening showed she could hold her own in Listed company when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 10 in a Pontefract (1m 4f) last time. Despite being a 4-year-old she’s less exposed than most of her rivals and won’t need to improve much to win this.
4:45 – Or8Wellness EBF Stallions Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
Richard Fahey saddles three of the twenty runners. His trio are Expert Choice, Ajwadi & Gamraanand all three have claims. Recent Beverley winner Expert Choice is the choice of stable jockey Osin Orr but I suspect he wouldn’t have been able to do the weight on Ajwadi.
Ajwadi appreciated the return to better ground when winning at Pontefract 15 days ago. He looked in need of 7f last time and must be of interest on nursery debut.
Aragon Castle left behind a low key racecourse debut when winning an Epsom maiden last month. Improved again when a length 2nd of 5 at Chester (soft) 18 days ago. Likely capable of better on nursery debut and trainer & jockey combined to win this corresponding race two years ago.
Blue Collar looks to have been campaigned with handicaps in mind. He posted a personal best last time when a 1 ½ length 4th of 14 in a Newmarket maiden (6f) 13 days ago. Shaped last time like the return to 7f would suit and he’s high on the shortlist.
5:20 – British EBF 40th Anniversary Fillies’ Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f
Unequal Love has progressed with each of her four starts and completed the hat trick when winning beating two rivals at Haydock 13 days ago. Up in class here but is capable of further progress and a big contender.
Nigiri has improved for the step into handicap company winning twice at Haydock. Up 5lb for her latest win and drops back to 7f here but looks ahead of the handicapper albeit both of her wins have come with ease in the ground.
Naomi Lapaglia improved for going handicapping when winning over the distance at Newmarket 40 days ago. A 3lb rise in the weight’s is workable but she does need find more on what she’s achieved so far. However, she is lightly raced and is open to further improvement.
The micro angle that I gave you yesterday saved the day with two winners and hopefully you got on Mostahdaf at 3/1 in the International Stakes. If you did you had a decent day.
Here are the Thursday and Friday’s qualifiers:
Betting Advice:
York
3:00 – Blue For You – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral and Master Richard – 1pt win – 16/1 @ Coral
3:35 – Al Husn – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Bet365 and Novokai – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
4:10 – Moracana – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral
4:45 – Ajwadi – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral and Blue Collar – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Paddy Power
5:20 – Naomi Lapaglia – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral
Cheers
John