Hi all,
After no selections yesterday. I’m back today with a few fancies.
Wetherby plays host to its first meeting of the new jumps season and it’s an intriguing looking card with some decent field sizes. The two handicap chases make most appeal from a betting perspective. There’s also one I like at Nottingham this afternoon’
Wetherby
4:10 – For a midweek handicap chase this is as competitive as it gets with 15 runners declared to meet the starter. Sky Pirate looked to be still going well when coming down four out in this race 12 months ago. He races off the same mark today and can be expected to go well again.
Storm Control readily out pointed Sky Pirate when the two met at Doncaster last December and gets a 2lb pull in the weights. No show on his seasonal return at Warwick 23-days ago. Will be sharper for that run as he was second time up last season. Ground versatile but both career wins have come when making all in small fields.
Nigel Twiston-Davies saddled last year’s winner and he has got Tintern Theatre here. The returns 9-year-old returns from a 684-day layoff but he’s well handicapped, 12lb below his last winning mark, if ready to roll. Was withdrawn on his intended seasonal reappearance at Ludlow last week on account of the quick ground. Best form has come going right-handed.
Philip Hobbs has won this race twice since 2015. He saddles Ecu De La Noverie & Awake At Midnight. The former ran well here on his seasonal return 12 months ago before winning here over 2m last November, off 8lb lower. His final two starts last season were over hurdles so there could be more to come from the 6-year-old over fences. Up in distance here but each way claims in the hands of Corinthian Mr David Maxwell.
Awake At Midnight won first time up in 2018 and ran just once last year when disappointing at Sandown in December. Probably on a competitive mark but this is his first start since a wind-op and stamina for 2m 3 ½ f to be proven.
Verdict: Storm Control can win races this winter but might need an uncontested lead and small field to do so. Sky Pirate could well have won this 12-months and although he looks held by Storm Control on their Doncaster running this race set up could suit him better. Ecu De La Noverie may be capable of better over the larger obstacles, he has stamina to prove over this far but each way claims if ready to roll.
1pt win – Sky Pirate – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Coral
1pt each way – Ecu De La Noverie – 12/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
5:15 – Another good handicap chase. Destined to Shine made it 2-6 over fences when making a winning seasonal return at Uttoxeter 10-days ago. Has a 7lb penalty to carry for that win but looks capable of being there or thereabouts. Previous C&D winner Movie Legend was my main fancy here but he’s now a non-runner. Vado Forte was an excellent 3rd of 10 at Newbury, beaten short neck, in a pulsating finish in December. A three-time winning hurdler he’s 0-6 over fences, ideally needs a strong pace to chase and maybe softer ground but looks capable of winning a race like this for an inform trainer/jockey that are 11 winners from 27 runners 41% +13.50 when teaming up.
Verdict: Destined to Shine could find this tougher under a penalty but he’s had a recent run which could be vital and won’t mind the ground. A reproduction of Vado Forte’s Newbury run last December would see him go close on his return to action.
1pt win – Destined To Shine – 4/1 – Gen
1pt win – Vado Forte – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Ladbrokes
Nottingham
2:35 – Kryptos has returned from a near three-year absence in decent enough form. Yet to win beyond a mile but the was beaten only a neck at Chester over 1m 2f back in August. Raced on the unfavoured far side and ran better than his 15th of 27 in the Cambridgeshire suggests last time. Soft ground suits and he’s well handicapped on his best back form. Despite slight doubts about stamina he’s the pick with William Buick in the plate for the first time.
1pt win – Kryptos – 9/2 @ Bet365
Cheers
John