Hi all,
Disappointing day on Tuesday but you must move on and don’t dwell in this game.
The race of the Listowel Festival is on this afternoon. The Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade A) (4:20) has €200,000 in guaranteed prize money with €118,000 on offer to the winner. I tend to see the race as the first big handicap chase of the winter jumps season. However, unless the rain arrives it’s going to be run on anything but winter ground.
Besides Listowel there’s also a decent card at Goodwood this afternoon. I have selections from both meetings which you can find at the end of the main piece.
Listowel
4:20 – Eighteen are set to go to post for this afternoon’s Kerry National. A lot revolves around whether you think Hewick whether the handicapper has got his measure? If you think he hasn’t and the trainer thinks he’s a Cheltenham Gold Cup contender, then you will be helping yourself to the 7/1 available with Coral.
Good ground has seen Hewick win the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown and the Galway Plate on his last two starts over fences. Now 8lb higher than when winning last time and having failed to go with him at Sandown or Galway I maybe jumping on board to late but I’m of the believe that on a sound surface he can defy his new mark of 163.
Rock Road is first reserve. If he was to get in, then he may prove a better proposition than stablemate El Barra who was put in his place by Hewick when runner-up in the Plate. Rock Road might be a 10-year-old but he’s progressive and effective on good ground. He did well to win over 2m 4f at Killarney last time and three mile will suit him better.
Last year’s winning trainer Joseph O’Brien saddles six of the 18 runners. Fire Attack was in the lead and had still to be asked for his effort when falling five out in the Galway Plate. I think he’s nicely treated and although staying 3m isn’t guaranteed he’s going to win a race like this when putting it altogether. The other O’Brien runner I like is Busselton. A winner on the level at Roscommon two starts back he was a good 2nd of 20 over fences in the Galway Blazers last time. A winner of a beginners’ chase (2m 6f) here 12 months ago. He’s yet to race over 3m but looks worth a go over the trip on a sound surface.
Ronald Pump isn’t the most reliable and he can be reluctant to start as occurred in the Galway Plate. He blew the start that day but was staying on steadily enough to finish a 14 length 7th of 21 to Hewick. Back from a couple of runs over hurdles he’s handicapped to go close on a going day.
3:10 – The step up to 3m seems likely to suit Shoot First after his 6 ½ length 2nd of 17 to Rock Road on handicap hurdle debut at Galway last time. Perceval Legallois has improved for the step up to 3m and must be respected on his head 2nd of 16 to Nathaniel’s Dream on handicap debut at Galway last time. I don’t there should be much between the pair and if you can get the 11/2 available with Bet365 its worth taking.
Goodwood
3:00 – Some Nightmare had an excellent 2021 winning four times including this race 12 months ago and added a fifth career win at Chepstow in April. The 5-year-old bounced back from a poor run at that venue when a respectable 5-length 3rd of 8 over C&D 15-days. That was his first run for 88-days so he should be better for the run, and he comes into the autumn fresher than most. The cheekpieces that he’s worn on his last four starts are replaced by the first time blinkers. If the change in headgear has the desired effect, he won’t be far away.
5:20 – Andrea Atzeni is an interesting booking for Lihou. The 6-year-old hasn’t quite been at last year’s best this season, but he did win at Salisbury (Class 4) in June from 2lb lower. He also was only a beaten a 1 length 4th of 15 to Lord Riddiford (Class 2) in July over C&D. Back into Class 4 here and reproduction of his C&D form behind Lord Riddiford would see him close today.
Kempton
7:15 – Course winner Guilin seemed to take to the first time cheekpieces when a length 2nd of 9 here (1m 4f) 19-days ago. The drop back to 1m 3f looks worth trying and the booking of Adam Farragher of a handy 5lb
Betting Advice
Listowel
3:10 – 1pt win – Perceval Legallois – 11/2 @ Bet365
4:20 – 1pt win – Hewick – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Rock Road – 7/1 @ Bet365 (first reserve).
Goodwood
3:00 – 1pt win – Some Nightmare – 17/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:20 – 1pt win – Lihou – 9/1 @ Bet365
Kempton
7:15 – 1pt win – Guilin – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John