Hi all,
I’m back in the saddle today with selections from Ludlow, Fairyhouse and Kempton.
Ludlow
2:30 – Having jumped off Le Milos at Sandown on Saturday only to watch him make all to win at 12/1. I’m now drawn to his stablemate Tight Call here. He was jumping adequately out in front before a couple of bad mistakes, put him on the back foot at Exeter on his chase debut in November. He’s capable of better than that. Back from an 80-day absence here but has gone extremely well fresh in the past. The 8-year-old a four-time winner including here in November 2020. All those wins have come on good, good to firm ground. However, he seemed to handle soft ground well enough when a neck 2nd of 11 at Uttoxeter in March so good to soft should be fine. Still I’m hoping the track doesn’t receive more rain than expected.
1pt win – Tight Call – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Fairyhouse
1:15 – An interesting 2m 5f handicap chase. John Adams who had unseated his rider on his previous starts finally got it together in the jumping stakes when winning at Punchestown last time. Up 9lb for that success but lightly raced over fences and if his jumping holds up he could go in again.
Exit To The West was a 7 ½ length behind John Adams in second. She’s 7lb better off with the winner and has finished runner-up on her last two starts over fences. There shouldn’t be much between the pair and today’s drop back in trip might suit her slightly better. Yard has its runners in excellent form.
Conquredalofeurope put in his best effort over fences at the fourth attempt when a ½-length 2nd of 15 handicap chase debut over C&D. Up 3lb for that effort but a stronger run race will suit. The first-time blinkers replace the cheekpieces today and the 7-year-old looks capable of better.
Jacksons Gold lets us down on his handicap chase debut at Naas. Dropped into the rear at the start his jumping could have been better and he could never get into the race although he did make a bit headway to finish 8th. I think he’s better than he was able to show last time and he’s nicely treated on his progressive novice handicap hurdle last spring.
1pt win – Conquredalofeurope – 9/2 – Gen
1pt win – Jacksons Gold – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:15 – Dancing Jeremy didn’t beat much when winning on his chase/yard debut at Cork last month. Clearly in good heart and in form. Back over the smaller obstacles today and has a 12lb lower mark than over fences to exploit.
Barncroft, trained by Gordon Elliott,put in his best effort when 3rd of 20 in Naas maiden hurdle last time and must be respected on his handicap debut.
Better Times Ahead was prominent in the betting when 27 lengths 6th of 21 in a Punchestown maiden last month. Not given a hard race at Naas and looks the sort to step up on his previous efforts now going handicapping and stepping up to 2m4f. His trainer Robert Tyner has his team in excellent shape.
Difficult Decision 2-14 over hurdles bounced back from two poor efforts over fences when ¾-length 2nd of 12 in a Punchestown beginners’ chase 24-days ago. The 9-year-old was strong at the finish last time. That was his best effort since finishing a 2 ½ length 2nd of 16 at Thurles back in March. Back over hurdles today with Shane Fitzgerald taking off a handy 5lb again. May be better over a little further than 2m 4f but a reproduction of his Thurles effort would see him thereabouts.
Kashi steadily progressive since dropping back to 2m and was only beaten a short head here two starts back. Before falling at the 4th at Gowran Park 13-days ago. Step up 2m 4f on soft ground is a bit of a concern but he remains capable of winning a race like this provided confidence hasn’t been dented by his latest mishap.
1pt win – Kashi – 10/1 @ Bet365
0.5pts each way – Difficult Decision – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)
Kempton
8:00 – A much lower-class race than I would normally consider but I’m happy to take a couple to smaller stakes here. Fred Bear & El Paco were third and fourth respectively here over 1m 4f last month. Fred Bear ran a personal best on the flat that day. The 4-year-old was outpaced 3f but made good head headway to finish third and earned the “eyecatcher” comment from the Raceform analyst. He wasn’t in the same form 24-hours later when 9th of 11 dropped back to 1m 2f. A winning hurdler he looks worth another chance stepped up to 2m. El Paco was also doing his best work at the finish when ¾ length behind Fred Bear last time. Stall 13 isn’t ideal but his latest was a career best and the step up to 2m looks worth exploring.
0.5pts win – Fred Bear – 14/1 @ Bet365
0.5pts win – El Paco – 14/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John