Hi all,
What a potentially stellar weekend of racing to look forward to. It’s just a shame that there has been a serious lack of rain in the last month. Given the lack of the wet stuff it looks like field sizes will be hit. For example; looking at the field for the bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase. Just 11 runners were left in at Monday’s confirmation stage.
On Saturday there’s Grade 1 action both sides of the Irish Sea. There’s seven race card for day one of the Dublin Racing Festival which includes four Grade 1 races and two likely valuable and competitive handicaps. The highlight for many will be the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup (3.15)
The best of the action this side of the Irish Sea comes from Sandown where the Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase (2.20) takes place. At Wetherby, the William Hill Towton Novices’ Chase (2.30).
Up at Musselburgh it’s day one of Scottish Trials Weekend and the highlights of a seven-race card includes the Frodon Novices’ Chase (12.57), Scottish County Hurdle (2.40) and Edinburgh National (3.45).
The ITV cameras are covering 11 races live on Saturday. Four from Sandown, Four from Musselburgh and one from Wetherby. As a bonus they are also covering two races from the Dublin Racing Festival, including the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup.
Now we need is some rain at all the jumps tracks. Some rain is being forecast for the week but at the time of writing it doesn’t like it will be much. At the time of writing. Both Sandown and Musselburgh have been watering to prevent the ground getting too quick.
I know some of you don’t like ante post betting but there is often more value to be had. Although you must take a chance that your selections run and you take a chance that the ground doesn’t change to dramatically before the race. With those things in mind. I have a couple that I like in Saturday’s Edinburgh National. Plus, I have a couple of selections from this afternoon’s fixtures at Leicester & Exeter.
Ante Post Selections:
Musselburgh – bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase
Top-weight Highland Hunter has been installed as the ante post favourite (9/4). The Paul Nicholls trained runner looks a worthy market leader after his 9-length 2nd of 20 to Iwilldoit in Welsh Grand National at Chepstow. He finished 7-lengths clear of the third day and can race off the same mark here. On the negative side this will be some of the quickest ground he’s raced on although he did win on good to soft at Sandown two starts back.
Given the forecast going I’m happy to take the favourite on and the two I like two at the prices are Get Out The Gate and the veteran Step Back.
You can’t say the Sandy Thomson yard is in red hot form of late but you can guarantee he’s laid out a few for the meeting and one of them could be Get Out The Gate. The 9-year-old is twice a winner here over hurdles so no problems with the track. Ok, he’s yet to race beyond 3m 1f but one big plus is the likely going, as five of his six career wins have come on good ground.
Step Back might be a 12-year-old but the 2018 bet365 Gold Cup Winner showed he was no back number when making all to Veterans’ Handicap Chase at Sandown in November 2020. Off for 12 months he was a well beaten 34 length 7th of 13 to Annsam in Silver Cup at Ascot in December. Granted we don’t know how much ability remains. However, on the plus side he’s at best going right-handed, on good, good to soft going – 4 wins from 7 starts +19.5 5 places. Jack Tudor has been booked for the ride and he’s 2-2 on the horse.
Verdict: Get Out Of The Gate and Step Back are couple of value ante post picks against the favourite Highland Hunter.
1pt win – Step Back – 14/1 @ William Hill & Sky Bet
1pt win – Get Out Of The Gate – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Wednesday Racing
Leicester
3:20 – Useful hurdler Patroclus was well fancied, returned 11/4, for his seasonal return/chase debut at Newbury 35-days ago. The 6-year-old who has the size for jumping a fence shaped like the run was needed last time. The drop back to 2m 4f shouldn’t inconvenience him. Although this will be the quickest ground he’s raced on. Better can be expected as he gains more experience over the larger obstacles.
Top-weight Guy, trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, looked set for a good season when finishing a 2-length 2nd of 9 at Market Rasen (good) on his seasonal return and he was closing on the leader when making a bad mistake two out when runner-up again at Ascot. Below his best when only 6th of 9 back at Ascot last time. He’s suited by a sound surface and this race is a drop-in class compared to his last three starts.
Trainer Tom George saddled the winner of this race 2016 & 2017 and runs Crealion. Twice a winner over fences the 6-year-old arguably put in a personal best when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 9 to Family Business over C&D three weeks ago. He gets 3lb from that one and has a good chance of reverse placings today. He goes well on quick ground too so shouldn’t be far away.
1pt win – Guy – 3/1 – Gen
Exeter
3:40 – Another competitive handicap chase. Jobesgreen Lad will be popular on his hat trick bid after wins at Ludlow & Hereford. He looks progressive but will need to be as he’s been hiked up 9lb for his Hereford success and is up a shade in class.
Ambion Hill is expected to make a better chaser than a hurdler and he jumped nicely when shaping with plenty of promise when a 3 ¼ length 2nd of 12 to Jobesgreen Lad at Ludlow. He gets 15lb from the winner today and must have a great chance of reversing places here.
Legend Of Zorro‘s two chase wins have come on good to soft and good ground. The latest of them came at Taunton last April, off today’s mark. Not at his best in three starts in the autumn and was a disappointing beaten favourite when last seen in action at Hereford back in November. The distance maybe on the sharp side for him but he’s had win surgery since his last run and isn’t handicapped out of this on ground that suits.
1pt win – Legend Of Zorro – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John