Hi all,
Some decent racing today and I have a few of interest at Kempton and Navan.
First though I have a couple that I like at big prices for Saturday’s Howden Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) at Ascot.
Weekend Ante Post Advice:
Ascot: Howden Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap)
I have previewed the race in my Wednesday Daily Punt column.
David O’Meara won this 12 month ago with Escobar (20/1) and the 9-year-old will bid to win again from 13lb lower. Prior to winning 12 months ago Escobar ran over an inadequate 6f in the Ayr Gold Cup and he’s had the same prep this year. O’Meara looks to have a strong hand in race as he also has Blue For You, Orbaan, Pearle D’or, Rhoscolyn & Riot among the entries.
Orbaan is a previous C&D winner and although he has been at his best this season, he hinted at York last time that he’s back to down to a mark he can win off when all the cards fall right.
it’s a race where I could easily end up going with another one but for now, I do like the claims of Escobar and Orbaan. Some might want to split stakes and go each way but it’s on the nose for me.
Escobar – 25/1 @ Ladbrokes, Coral & William Hill.
Orbaan – 33/1 @ Paddy Power & Bet365.
Kempton
The race of the day is the 6f conditions stakes (London Sprint Series Qualifier) at Kempton (6:30) this evening.
6:30 – Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner Mischief Magic has been installed the bookies early bird favourite.He needs to bounce back from a couple of lesser runs, albeit in Group company, in the spring. However, he’s been gelded since a poor run in the Commonwealth Cup and the Charlie Appleby yard is excellent form. If he’s close to the level of his Breeders Cup win he would be tough to beat but he’s got to be worth taking on at his short price.
The return to the synthetic surface will hopefully prompt a revival from Desert Cop. Both the 3-year-old’s career wins have come on the all-weather and his Kempton figures are 21. That win coming in a C&D maiden in February.
The other one I like is Never Just A Dream. The colt is 3-3 on the all-weather (all on the tapeta) in Britain. He needs to bounce back from a couple of lesser runs on the dirt in the UAE earlier in the year. However, if he’s ready to roll after a 243 day break won’t be far away. Early bird punters quickly snaffled up to the 8/1 and 10/1 that was available and he’s now a less appealing 4/1.
7:00 – Surrey Noir has improved for the step into handicap company and had a bit in hand when winning over C&D last month. The 3-year-old has got handy low draw in stall 4 has a big chance even though he’s 7lb higher and up a notch in class.
Elzaam Blue did best of those who came from the rear when a short head 2nd of 11 in a similar race over C&D 7-days ago. He might be better over a mile but if getting a decent pace to chase is a big player.
Starlight Nation won at Leicester over the distance and bounced back from a poor run at Newbury and ten week break when a length 3rd of 11 at Ascot last time. That was a career best from the 3-year-old and he look likely to be in the mix back on the all-weather.
7:30 – Maid In Kentucky, a winner at Lingfield in March, is having her first start since disappointing over C&D 119 days ago. She’s surely better than she was able to show last time and is interesting in the first time tongue tie. Has a handy low draw for a prominent racer in a race which isn’t likely to be strongly run.
Tiempo Star was only beaten a head here (7f) two starts back but was below form when only 7th of 13 over C&D 90 days ago. Could easily bounce back to his best after a 90 day break albeit he’s drawn out widest of all in 11.
Navan
3:25 – Real Force returned from a 10 month absence to win on seasonal reappearance at Cork in April. The top-weight was off for a further six months and might just have needed the run when a 4 ½ length 8th of 16 in a Premier Handicap at the Curragh 11 days ago. The softer the ground the better for the 6-year-old and I can see him going close.
4:25 – Signora Bellissima was just a nose in front of Perfect Poise when winning a C&D handicap 34 days ago. Perfect Poise has since improved to win at Punchestown and finish a neck runner-up at Bellewstown 6 days ago. Signora Bellissima is 6lb better off today and yet Perfect Pose is half her odds.
All Lies Ahead has bounced back to form to finish runner-up on her last two starts. Nudged up 1lb but goes well with ease in the ground and likely to be in the mix once more.
Touching Clouds was back to form when a ½ length 4th of 14 at Leopardstown two starts back. However, she needs to bounce back from a lacklustre run back at that venue 41 days ago.
You Owe Me Money did best of those held up in a modestly run race when a 2 ½ length 5th of 13 at Punchestown 21 days ago. That was the 4-year-old’s first start since winning at Gowran Park four months previously and granted a stronger pace, which she should get here, won’t be far away.
Betting Advice:
Kempton
6:30 – Desert Cop – 1pt win – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
7:00 – Surrey Noir – 1pt win – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Navan
3:35 – Real Force – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:25 – You Owe Me Money – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Not sure there will be any selections on Thursday but watch your inboxes for any updates.
Cheers
John