Hi all,
The ITV cameras are covering the best of the action from Leopardstown. Plus, two races from Leicester as part of a six race programme this afternoon.
Inside today’s main piece I look at the best of the action on ITV4 this afternoon. Today’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Leopardstown
The focus of the big race action switches across the Irish Sea to Leopardstown. The Grade 1 Savills Chase (2.20) and the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle (1.45) are highlights of a seven race card.
1:45 – Home By The Lee was probably further forward than Bob Olinger when beating that one by 2 lengths in the Grade 2 Lismullen Hurdle (2m 4f) at Navan last month. The winner seemed to outstay the runner-up that day and there didn’t seem to be any fluke to that win. Back over 3m I fancy that Home By The Lee can confirm form once more.
That said they all have 2020 winner Flooring Porter to beat. Runner-up 12 months ago before winning the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham. The 7-year-old finished a 12 length 4th of 9 to Home By The Lee in Lismullen on seasonal return. He wasn’t subjected to hard race when his chance was gone and is the one, they all must beat.
2:20 – Gold Cup winner A Plus Tard is back after a poor seasonal reappearance effort in the Betfair Chase. Explanations for his Haydock performance have been given the and the 8-year-old who won this in 2020 will be tough to beat if back to his best.
Besides A Plus Tard we have two other previous winners: Galvin and Kemboy in the line-up. Galvin won 12 months ago but was disappointing behind Envoi Allen at Down Royal last time. He had a bad scope after Down Royal which probably explains his poor run there. Needs a stronger gallop to chase over 3m and needs A Plus Tard to underperform once more to win.
Kemboy was successful in the 2018 renewal and has a good course record overall. A close third in last year’s race to Galvin and A Plus Tard. He hasn’t won since February 2021. However, he showed he retains plenty of ability when a 1 ¾ length second Envoi Allen at Down Royal last month.
Of the rest French Dynamite a ¾ length 2nd of 14 Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last month is open to further progress over fences and for the step up to 3m. He’s the lowest rated of these but could get into the places at big odds.
2:55 – I Am Maximus runner-up at Punchestown on his chase debut earlier this month will be hard to beat in the beginners chase (2:55). Willie Mullins puts on the first time cheekpieces and given he jumped a bit to his left last time he should be better suited by going this way around. His biggest rival could well turn out to be chase debutant Gentlemansgame. The best of these over hurdles posted a career best on RPR’s when 3 ¾ length 3rd of 7 to Klassical Dream in the Grade 1 Champion Stayers Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. Capable of better over the larger obstacles and although he tends to find one or two to good at the finish, he should go close with a good round of jumping on chase debut.
Freedom To Dream needs to be respected on the best of his hurdles form. The 7-year-old’s best effort over hurdles came when a 4 length 4th of 23 to Banbridge in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Not disgraced on chase debut at Fairyhouse last month and shaped as if the run was just needed that day. Provided the ground isn’t too testing he could surprise at big odds.
There are also a couple of big field handicaps on the Leopardstown card with the second of them the Pertemps Series Qualifier (1:10) live on ITV.
Rest of the Leopardstown card
12:35 – Just the 25 have been declared for this 2m 4f handicap hurdle. The short-priced favourite is Unanswered who made it 2-6 over hurdles when winning at Cheltenham last month. The 5-year-old will be hard to beat here although the ground will be nuch softer than was the case last time.
L’yser is unexposed over hurdles a winner of maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse in January he was good 5 length 5th of 24 back at that track on handicap hurdle debut in April. Belated seasonal reappearance here and needs jumps with more fluency than last time. If he does he’s got to be respected with Michael O’Sullivan taking off a handy 5lb.
Course & distance winner She’s Commanche is more exposed than the above twoover hurdlesand isn’t the most consistent of handicappers, but she’s not weighted out of this if ready to roll after a 256-day layoff.
1:10 – Another big field with 28 set to meet the starter. Maxxum looked much improved when comfortably seeing off 22 rivals at Navan last month. The handicapper has hiked him up 17lb but even that might stop him from following up.
Stablemate Vina Ardanza also posted a career best last time when a short head 2nd of 18 at Naas last month. The step up to 2m4f suited the 5-year-old who could stay further and is respected.
Perceval Legallois got off the mark at the 8th attempt over hurdles when winning a Wexford maiden in July. Has finished runner-up on both starts in handicap company since and but for a slight mistake at the last might well have won at Listowel last time. Stays 3m well and is open to further progress.
Course & distance winner Maze Runner has been running with credit on the flat this year. He stays very well and returns to hurdles for the first time since finishing a 4 ½ length 3rd of 25 in a handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. Given the form of the Willie Mullins yard he’s got to be considered.
Hemlock posted a career best on her fourth start over hurdles when a 3 lengths 3rd of 16 oner handicap debut at Fairyhouse in April. Off since but not totally ruled out if fit on her return from a layoff.
Takarengo an infrequent winner over hurdles (1-17) was as good as ever when a 5 lengths 4th of 15 in a Pertemps Qualifier at Punchestown last month. Stays 3m well and no siuues with soft ground for the 6-year-old who could get into the places with Danny Mullins taking over in the saddle today.
Leicester
2:35 – Playful Saint well suited to soft ground looked as good as everwhen finishing a ¾ length 2nd of 9 to Love Envoi at Sandown 25-days ago. A reproduction of that effort from 3lb lower would see him win this.
Martinhal returns from a 377-day break. Twice a winner over hurdles at Exeter early in 2021 he hasn’t built on that promise on three subsequent starts, but the handicapper has given him a bit of a chance if bouncing back to his best after an absence.
3:10 – Ile De Jersey who had the race at her mercy when falling at the last on her chase debut at Taunton made no mistake at Southwell on her next start. The going was good when she won last time so issues with underfoot conditions. There was plenty to like about the mares attitude on the run in as she found plenty to hold off the runner-up. The 4-year-old is up 4lb but capable of better over fences.
Ile De Jersey’s main rival looks to be Our Jet who returned from a 9 month absence with an encouraging 7 ½ length 2nd of 11 at Southwell on chase debut last month. He jumped soundly and was giving away fitness and chase experience to the winner that day. Nudged up 2lb but is capable of better over the larger obstacles.
The best of the handicaps is at Limerick and the Grade B Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase (2:40).
Limerick
2:40 – The ground is likely to be very testing for the Limerick feature. Maskada was in the process of running a big race on her first start for seven months when falling two out in a handicap chase at Fairyhouse 24-days ago. It was testing ground that day and she was going well when coming to grief. If none the worse for her fall should go close.
Rebel Gold was a solid 5 length 5th of 11 in handicap chase at Fairyhouse 25-days ago. The 9-year-old produced a career best effort in this race last year when a ½ length 2nd of 14. Can now race off 4lb lower this time around. Should be spot on fitness wise today and the more testing the ground the better for the 9-year-old.
Lieutenant Command, made a winning chase debut at Fairyhouse (2m 5f) last November but hasn’t really built on that initial promise on subsequent starts. Just in front when unseating his rider two out in a novice handicap chase at Naas in February and has fallen on his last starts including on seasonal return here in the Munster National. Unappealing form figures but when his jumping does click is probably on a winnable mark.
Betting Advice:
Leopardstown
1:10 – Perceval Legallois – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral and Maze Runner – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral
2:20 – Kemboy – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Boylesports
2:55 – Freedom To Dream – 1pt win – 25/1 @ Bet365
Leicester
2:35 – Martinhal – 1pt win – 13/2 @Coral & Ladbrokes
Limerick
2:40 – Rebel Gold – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power and Lieutenant Command – 1pt win – 11/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook & Paddy Power
Limerick
Cheers
John