Hi all,
It’s Day one of Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire Meeting. It’s an eight-race card and ITV are covering four races from HQ, as well as two from Pontefract. I have to say the Newmarket races don’t excite due to the small field sizes.
Newmarket
2:35 – Betsey Trotter beat 19 rivals at Thirsk 20-days ago. That success came on good to soft but she’s ground versatile. Now 6lb higher than last time but she did win off her present mark last October so she can remain competitive.
3:35 – Mildenberger is having his first start since finishing runner-up in the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes at Newcastle 110-days ago. He’s 2-3 on good to soft and is the highest rated of the five runners in the Listed race. His chance is obvious and he’s won fresh in the past. He will be tough to beat.
4:45 – I was hoping the rain would have eased the ground as that would have enhanced the chances of Scottish Summit. If the ground remains on the quick side of good It’s hard to look past King Ragner. The 3-year-old put in a career best effort when 2nd of 8 at Yarmouth eight days ago. Gets the first-time blinkers today and if the change of headgear has the desired effect can go close again.
The most competitive race of the day is a 1m 4f handicap at Listowel and provides Thursday’s selection.
Listowel
3:55 – Baron Samedi has won his last three starts. He been raised 20lb for his last win at Navan but he’s a rapidly improving handicapper and he may not have reached his class ceiling just yet.
Persia was well fancied for a 1m 5f handicap at Leopardstown. That was his first start for 315-days but he was slowly away and could never get involved. He made steady headway to finish 8th of 19. In the circumstances he did well to finish within 3 ½ lengths of the winner. He will be sharper for that run and did win on soft at Galway last year. If he handles the forecast heavy won’t be far away.
One who won’t fear the mud is Layfayette. The 3-year-old looked to have improved for the step up to 1m 2f when winning at Navan 32-days. He’s only been raised 4lb for that win and raced last time like he would stay further. Has stall 15 to overcome if he’s to win this though.
Sayo, trained by Willie Mullins, is 2-2 with heavy in the going description over hurdles. Won over hurdles at Kilbeggan last month and ran well to finish 2nd of 18 on his last start on the flat. Now 5lb higher but remains on a workable mark and can go well.
Verdict: I wouldn’t put anyone off the favourite Baron Samedi who remains progressive over today’s distance. I’m expecting a better run from Persia if he handles the heavy ground. The mud loving Sayo looks capable of winning off his present mark and can get into the money.
1pt each way – Sayo – 5/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John