Hi all,
My first selections of the week and the new month.
It’s a case of the calm before the weekend storm begins on Friday. It’s going to be one of the busiest weekends’ of the year on the selections front so strap yourself in for a rollercoaster ride.
It’s a low key day of sport on Thursday. Of the forty potential races not, one is worth more than £7,965 to the winner.
Despite the modest look of today’s racing there are a couple of interesting handicaps at Stratford and Thurles.
Stratford
1:10 – Shakem Up’Arry is 6lb higher than when winning on seasonal return at Exeter last December and is 1lb higher than when a 5 ¼ length 3rd of 23 in the Plate Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He’s had a wind operation since finishing 4th of 15 in a valuable handicap at Aintree in April. A solid jumper of a fence he must be respected even off top weight of 12-0 given this represents a drop in class.
Not surprisingly Shakem Up’Arry is a short-priced favourite, but he faces a couple of last time out winners over jumps who are improvers over fences who offer more on the value front.
Nickle Back posted a career best on his seasonal return when beating five rivals on his chase debut at Warwick 28 days ago. Has been raised 10lb for that success but given the ease of his victory it’s hard to see it stopping him if in the same form here. Different ground to last time but he did win on soft ground over hurdles.
Hystery Bere a three time winner over hurdles also made a winning debut over fences at Warwick (2m) in May. He made all that day and jumped soundly through the race. He already looks a better chaser than hurdler. Unexposed over fences and is capable of more improvement he will also be all the better for a recent spin on the flat.
Verdict: I think the race revolves around the three at the top of the weights. Shakem Up’Arry sets a high standard and has a nice pot in him this season. However, there’s more value to be had with Nickle Back and Hystery Bere and as the latter is double the odds then he’s the pick from a value perspective.
Thurles
3:15 – Atimetodream got off the mark on just her second start in handicap hurdle company when comfortable seeing of 13 rivals at Listowel (soft) 40 days ago. Up 9lb for her latest win but is capable of more improvement.
Costanuci bids for the hat trick after handicap hurdle wins at Listowel and Clonmel 35 days ago. Up 9lb in a better race and need to improve again but its not out of the question she will given her present vein of form.
Dragon’s Pass – 2 wins from 26 runs over hurdles hold no secrets from the handicapper. But she goes well on testing ground and was only a neck 2nd of 19 at Sligo last time. A 3lb rise makes life tougher and she’s vulnerable to any better treated rivals but she could get into the places.
Mitiva a bumper winner the 5-year-old is still awaiting her first win over hurdles after five starts. But she was back to form on her return from 125-day layoff when a 10 ½ length 4th of 14 at Fairyhouse (2m) last month. Steps up 4 ½ f in distance here but should stay and remains capable of better.
Faux Fur got off the mark at the third attempt over hurdles when winning a mares maiden hurdle at Tramore last month. Open to further progress over hurdles on handicap debut but Jack Kennedy deserts her for stablemate Sea Aster. The latter was too keen in the first time blinkers when pulling up at Punchestown last time. The cheekpieces return and the mare is better judged on her 1 ½ length 2nd of 11 to Costanuci two starts back. Now 12lb better off with that mare and must be considered.
Verdict: The two I like mostare Atimetodream and Mitiva and at their respective odds I have to side with the latter.
Betting Advice:
Stratford
1:10 – Hystery Bere – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Thurles
3:15 – Mitiva – 1pt win – 17/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John